2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Driver Rankings: Week 26 Chase Edition
The fun and games of the 26-race NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season are over.
It's time to get down to the business of deciding the 2014 champion in the revamped Chase for the Sprint Cup, which for the first time will feature a series of elimination rounds after every three Chase races, leading to four finalists in a winner-take-all showdown in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November.
Who's the favorite in the 16-driver Chase field? Well, there doesn't seem to be a consensus on that—even though Brad Keselowski became the first four-time winner of the season by dominating the final regular-season race at Richmond International Raceway last Saturday night.
"Go ahead. Pick a favorite for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Your guess is as good as anyone else's," Jeff Gluck wrote for USA Today Sports.
That may be so, but there are some drivers and teams clearly performing better than others who appear poised to go far in this Chase—and others, well, not so much.
11-16. Matt Kenseth and All the Rest
1 of 11
Previous Rankings: Only Matt Kenseth, at No. 10, was included in the last ranking.
Why They're Here: The other five Chasers on the outside of these rankings looking in heading into the final 10 races are Kurt Busch, AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman. Only Busch, Allmendinger and Almirola have won races. Of them, only Busch has won a race that wasn't shortened by rain on an oval.
Key 2014 Moments: Kurt Busch won at Martinsville early in the season to punch his Chase ticket, but he's the only one in this group who has won at any of the tracks that make a return appearance on the Chase schedule. Kenseth was the runner-up to champion Jimmie Johnson last year when he won a career-high seven races, but he's yet to win this season.
Key to Their Chases: Lots of luck. Otherwise, the first four drivers eliminated are likely to come from this group—and the two who survive after the first cut following the first three Chase races aren't likely to be around after the second cut. No one, Busch included, is expected to have a very long survival rate, but if Busch can hang on until the series returns to Martinsville for the third elimination round, maybe he can shock the world.
10. Denny Hamlin
2 of 11
Previous Ranking: 9
Why He's Here: Hamlin was very blunt about the fact that he's a real long shot in the Chase, telling FoxSports.com that his No. 11 Toyota needs to be faster. "You know, we've got a lot of pieces of the puzzle put together for a championship run," Hamlin said. "As important as track position is nowadays, you've got to have great pit stops, and we feel like we've got that part licked. It's just you've got to have faster cars, you've got to qualify better. There's a lot of things that go into a championship run, and we're missing a couple of them very important pieces, and that (includes) speed."
Key 2014 Moments: Hamlin claimed his only victory of the season earlier at Talladega, which will host the sixth race in the Chase. He also had finished ninth or better in six of the eight races leading up to the regular-season finale at Richmond, where he usually excels but finished a disappointing 21st.
Key to His Chase: No way he wins a title. Not this year, and not with the speed in the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas he drives compared to the cars fielded by Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske. But if he is still in it when they arrive at Talladega, a superspeedway where he's always a threat to win, he could at least make it to the final eight.
9. Kasey Kahne
3 of 11
Previous Ranking: NR
Why He's Here: Kahne showed in winning at Atlanta recently that he hasn't forgotten how to drive and that, in fact, when his car is right he has the kind of special talent required to win a championship. He just needs to find more consistency, and on days when his car isn't quite right, to take a 10th-place car and get a top-five, or coax a 15th-place car inside the top 10. He still hasn't figured out how to do that.
Key 2014 Moments: Nothing tops Atlanta on the positive side for Kahne. Unfortunately, there were only two other races in the entire regular season when he managed to finish inside the top five—third at Kansas in May and fifth in the first Michigan race in June. Most of his other efforts were like Richmond, where he started poorly (21st) and wasn't able to improve his position very much (finishing 17th).
Key to His Chase: The one thing Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis have going for them is that history has shown they can get on a hot streak, and that's all it takes to emerge as factor in the Chase. It just doesn't seem likely to happen this year—but if he can survive the first round of Chase cuts, Kansas is one of the tracks in the second round, and he ran well there earlier in the year.
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8. Carl Edwards
4 of 11
Previous Ranking: 7
Why He's Here: Everyone knows Edwards' lame-duck situation, with him already having announced he is leaving his current No. 99 Ford team and Roush Fenway Racing for a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota at season's end. He won two races to qualify for the Chase.
Key 2014 Moments: His wins came in the first Bristol race and on the road course at Sonoma. But he has only four other top-five finishes, the latest of which was a fifth at Atlanta.
Key to His Chase: It's doubtful this team can hold it together to make a championship run. In addition to Edwards saying he's leaving, crew chief Jimmy Fennig also told FoxSports.com that this likely is his final season atop the pit box. Even if you give them sentimental points for wanting to go out together as champions, the fact is the car just hasn't been consistently fast enough all season.
7. Kyle Busch
5 of 11
Previous Ranking: 10
Why He's Here: Busch's only win this season came at Auto Club Speedway in the fifth race of the season. But there is still a sense that his No. 18 Toyota team could put a run together in the Chase, if JGR can field cars that are fast enough to keep up with the Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske teams. That's admittedly a tall order, considering how the season has transpired so far.
Key 2014 Moments: Busch and long-time crew chief Dave Rogers exchanged harsh words over the radio during yet another frustrating race at Bristol less than a month ago, according to FoxSports.com, and you have to wonder if this duo is feeling the pressure to finally have a Chase worth remembering. They will be tested again over these final 10 races, for sure.
Key to His Chase: Busch thinks if he can survive the first round and get to the second, which is composed of races at Kansas, Charlotte and Talladega, he might have a chance to make a championship run. "Charlotte is one of my favorite places and we just tested there—felt like we had a good test there, as well—and we'll see if all that bodes well for the Joe Gibbs Racing team," Busch told FoxSports.com. "We'll see if we can't win a championship."
6. Kevin Harvick
6 of 11
Previous Ranking: 6
Why He's Here: Harvick would be ranked higher if the driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet and his pit crew could ever get on the same page. He sure looked like a title contender while dominating two early races at Phoenix and Darlington, respectively, but has had way too many nights that end with him ripping his pit crew to the media for good runs that didn't result in the types of finishes they should have because of pit-road miscues.
Key 2014 Moments: Asked again about his pit crew after he lost the lead on pit road eight times in the final two regular-season races, Harvick was blunt. "I can't fix them, but it's probably the biggest thing that we have to fix in order to contend for the championship," Harvick told FoxSports.com. "I think our cars are as fast as they need to be. The guys do a great job of bringing fast cars every week. But it's just one mistake after another every week on pit road."
Key to His Chase: It's pretty obvious, isn't it? It's the pit crew on his No. 4 Chevy.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7 of 11
Previous Ranking: 5
Why He's Here: With three wins, he's on the cusp of being included in the top four. But there is a sense that the other four teams with three or more wins (well, only Brad Keselowski has more with four) are carrying slightly more momentum into the Chase. That could prove to be a problem for Earnhardt and his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team.
Key 2014 Moments: Honestly, one of the key moments to his season may have been when he sat down with crew chief Steve Letarte before the season and they discussed goals—and the fact that Letarte would be leaving the pit box at season's end for the NBC broadcast booth. That's what Hall of Fame driver and current Fox Sports television analyst Darrell Waltrip believes, having said so in a recent column on FoxSports.com. The general feeling around the garage seems to be that Earnhardt and Letarte decided then and there that they wanted their last season together to be something special.
Key to His Chase: The issue that may come back to haunt Earnhardt in the Chase is his own admission (per FoxSports.com) that the team relaxed a bit after opening the season by winning the Daytona 500 and later sweeping both Pocono races. Sometimes after a team gets to that point, it's not so easy to flip the switch and return to ultra-competitive mode.
4. Joey Logano
8 of 11
Previous Ranking: 2
Why He's Here: Logano is poised to contend for his first Sprint Cup championship. With three wins, most recently just a few weeks ago at Bristol, he has proven he can run well at every type of track and against all other top contenders.
Key 2014 Moments: In addition to the win in the August night race on the .533-mile short track at Bristol, he also won on the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway layout and on the .75-mile short track at Richmond in a span of three races back in the spring. The kid has had a breakthrough kind of year where he finally seems to be reaching the great potential long ago predicted for him by so many.
The Key to His Chase: There really is no substitute for experience when it comes to handling pressure-packed situations, and Logano has the least of the top contenders for this title. That may ultimately keep him from winning it all, but next time he'll know what it's like to be in this position. From then on, look out.
3. Jeff Gordon
9 of 11
Previous Ranking: 1
Why He's Here: No driver has been more consistent, and only Brad Keselowski has won more races this season than the three Gordon has claimed. This appears to be his best chance to win his fifth championship in a long time, as his last title was earned in 2001.
Key 2014 Moments: Gordon finally broke through to win at Kansas and later added victories at Indianapolis and Michigan. Of those three, only Kansas will be revisited during the Chase—but that hardly matters to Gordon, who in his storied career has won at least one race at every single one of the 10 Chase tracks.
Key to His Chase: This season hasn't only been about Gordon's resurgence with the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team, but also about the emergence of crew chief Alan Gustafson. Always highly regarded in the garage, this year Gustafson has taken his game—and his chemistry with Gordon—to a new, higher level. That could pay huge dividends in the Chase.
2. Jimmie Johnson
10 of 11
Previous Ranking: 4
Why He's Here: It's Chase time, isn't it? So forget the fact that Johnson and his No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy team have been off their game for much of the season. And forget about Johnson's scary moment after the Richmond race when he had to be rushed to the infield care center because of dehydration. It's Chase time, and when it's Chase time no one is better than Johnson and his crew chief, Chad Knaus.
Key 2014 Moments: Despite "struggling" much of the season, Johnson still earned three victories. They all came in a four-race span, beginning with the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend and ending in Victory Lane after the first Michigan race in mid-June, with yet another win, the record-setting ninth of his career at Dover, sandwiched in between.
Key to His Chase: Guess what? Dover will be revisited during the Chase. So will Charlotte. That sets Johnson up nicely to cruise into the final eight, where over the next three races he'll visit three more of his favorites in Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix. He may not win his record-tying seventh championship, but the odds are greatly in his favor that he will be one of the four drivers left driving for the crown in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
1. Brad Keselowski
11 of 11
Previous Ranking: 3
Why He's Here: After absolutely dominating the final regular-season race at Richmond to become the first four-time winner of the season, Keselowski and his No. 2 Team Penske Ford teammates are in a great position to take a run at their second Cup title in three years.
Key 2014 Moments: He led 383 of a possible 400 laps at Richmond and hopes to ride that momentum at the beginning of the Chase. Keselowski's communication with crew chief Paul Wolfe, always a strength, seems even sharper than ever. They seem to have used the fact that they missed the Chase last season after winning the championship in 2012 as motivation, and it's obviously working. The team's other wins this season came at Las Vegas, Kentucky and New Hampshire.
Key to His Chase: Getting off to a fast start in the Chase will be important, and he usually runs well at Chicagoland Speedway where it will kick off this Sunday. In fact, he won at the 1.5-mile track to open the 2012 Chase on the way to his first championship. And he won earlier this year at New Hampshire, the second track up in this year's Chase.
Unless otherwise noted, all information was obtained firsthand.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer/editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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