Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 1: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

Little advice for fantasy football owners: You probably should have been starting Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks' win over Green Bay kicked off the 2014 NFL season Thursday night, and with it began our months-long obsession with a sport that somehow makes video games look real by comparison. Fantasy football—and fantasy sports in general—helps fans realize their pie-in-the-sky dreams of becoming NFL general managers, without all the yucky things like choosing offensive linemen and having the awkward Hard Knocks sit-down on cut day.

It's a streamlined virtual reality, and one that's awfully lucrative (in terms of respect and hearty handshakes—no money!) if you happen to win the league. But much like any good general manager in real life, you need solid deputies. Ones who do all the grunt work and things you don't have time for when, you know, you have things to do in your actual life.

Here's where we pop in.

While the best advice anyone can give for Week 1 is to start your stars and don't think twice—which is what everyone should be doing—there are some middle-of-the-road players who will have worse-than-expected weekends. And, on the flip side, there are a couple undervalued players on most boards.

With that in mind, here's some quick-hit advice for some of Week 1's toughest decisions.

Quarterback: Start Jay Cutler Over...Cam Newton

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Quarterback is a difficult position to advocate sitting any top-five player. Smart owners aren't typically drafting backups if they have one of the Big Six (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck and Newton). The depth scarcity at other positions is just too great to have a second quarterback who has zero chance of getting a spot start.

That said, if you somehow find yourself in one of those situations, Jay Cutler over Newton is one of the few times I'd advocate sitting a superstar.

The negatives have slowly overtaken the positives when it comes to Newton—through no fault of his own. The incompetence of former general manager Marty Hurney left the team cap-strapped and unable to land any serious pass-catching threats in free agency. An already weak position only became worse when the team curiously released Steve Smith despite taking a cap hit in the process. 

To replace Smith, who was somehow still Newton's most reliable target at age 34, the Panthers signed Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant before drafting Kelvin Benjamin in the first round. Given the history of rookie wide receivers, that's not a great cast. And to make matters worse, Newton will enter Week 1 with a hairline fracture in his ribs.

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The Panthers hit the road this week to face a Bucs defense that ranked top 10 in Football Outsiders' DVOA last season and should get better under Lovie Smith. Nooooo thanks.

Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is like Bizarro Newton. One could argue he has the league's best receiving duo in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, a do-it-all running back in Matt Forte and an above-average tight end in Martellus Bennett. Cutler will have four options available on every play who are starting this week in most formats. Newton has zero.

Buffalo is far from an ideal matchup, but there is reason to believe the Bills will struggle to replicate last season's quietly excellent defensive season. Linebacker Kiko Alonso remains out of the lineup while recovering from knee surgery, safety Jairus Byrd exited in free agency and the Bills have done little to replace either.

More importantly, Cutler is somehow the healthy player in this situation.

Running Back: Start Shane Vereen Over...Doug Martin (Especially in PPR Formats)

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Here's a common misconception about Doug Martin: He was not on his way to a superstar campaign last season before tearing his labrum and missing the last 10 games. Quite the opposite, actually. He was well on his way to first-round bustdom before ever taking the trip to Atlanta.

Coming off a stellar rookie season, Martin rushed for 456 yards on 127 carries and only had one touchdown in six games. He topped 70 rushing yards just twice and 100 once, with his impact also slowing down quite a bit in the passing game. No play where Martin touched the ball went for more than 28 yards.

Players have down seasons, but this would probably be a great time to remind most that a ton of Martin's fantasy value in 2012 came in one game. Take away Martin's historic 251-yard, four-touchdown game against Oakland and you get a guy who averaged four yards per carry and topped out as "pretty good."

It's unfair to take that game away from him, but odds are Martin is closer to the player we saw the first six weeks of 2013 than most think.

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Vereen is an ultimate boom-or-bust type talent. Bill Belichick is so famously fickle with his running backs that it's impossible to truly know who is ahead on the depth chart. He's become Mike Shanahan for a new generation, only somehow more secretive and unpredictable. Last season, guys would go from 20 carries to two within a week span.

With LeGarrette Blount in Pittsburgh and Stevan Ridley allegedly near the cut line before making the roster, it seems safe (for now) to assume Vereen will get the bulk of the work. The former second-round pick out of Cal has never received more than 62 carries in a season but has looked promising in limited looks and was downright excellent as a pass-catcher in 2013. He made 47 receptions for 427 yards and added 208 on the ground in eight games after coming back from a wrist injury.

Fully healthy and facing a Miami defense that was dreadful against the run last season, Vereen is an underrated Week 1 option at running back. Even if you're uncomfortable starting him ahead of Martin, he's more desirable than Steven Jackson, Rashad Jennings and Chris Johnson this week.

Wide Receiver: Play Jeremy Maclin Over...DeSean Jackson

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Jeremy Maclin will not replicate DeSean Jackson's 2013 campaign. The narrative that Chip Kelly's system is a plug-and-chug machine without any of the typical talent restraints is a bridge too far—even for someone who finds Kelly fascinating as an offensive mind. Jackson, having watched them play football together for four seasons, is a better, more explosive receiver.

We're not breaking any ground here. But Maclin is a better, smarter route-runner and may wind up with a career-best season in his own way if he stays healthy. The quick-strike reads that are a staple of Kelly's system blend perfectly with Maclin, who is quick but not out-of-this-world fast like Jackson. The former Missouri star is also coming off an ACL tear, so we have to take that into account.

Caveats aside, Maclin will be the second-most important skill-position player on a team that's going to have offensive success. Kelly turned Jackson into a superstar in 2013 and may do the same with Maclin; it's not impossible to envision a scenario in which Maclin catches 100 balls and matches Jackson's 1,300-yard total from last season.

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After being released by the Eagles for reasons that remain curious at best, Jackson linked up with division rival Washington—a team run by an offensive mind nowhere near as innovative as Kelly. The quick-strike screens and underneath passes that went Jackson's way in 2013 will likely head toward Pierre Garcon, who had perhaps the quietest 113-catch season in NFL history a year ago.

Garcon and quarterback Robert Griffin III have a ready-built repertoire that should keep him in a safety-valve role. Tight end Jordan Reed, himself a potential breakout candidate, will also be occupying the middle of the field. Under Jay Gruden, Jackson is most likely going to revert to his pre-2013 form—a high-variance option with a ton of big plays but little week-to-week reliability.

Maclin, who went off the board three rounds later, represents the opposite end of the spectrum for as long as he stays healthy. Chip Kelly will get him the football. History says Maclin will do good things with it. The matchup here frankly doesn't matter; I'm riding with Maclin over Jackson for 2014.

Tight End: Start Antonio Gates Over...Ladarius Green

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It feels weird to call Antonio Gates, the man who ushered in fantasy relevance for his position, a sleeper. But after an offseason that saw every expert fawn over his ostensive replacement and toss him to the side, that's exactly what Gates is heading into 2014.

Gates, very quietly, had his best numbers in nearly a decade last season. He made 77 catches for 872 yards; the only thing that kept him from being an elite fantasy option was his four touchdowns. We all should know touchdowns for pass-catchers are highly variant from year to year by now. Gates had not had fewer than seven touchdowns since 2003.

Green only had one fewer touchdown than Gates last season and nearly doubled him up in yards per reception. He's an athletic freak at 6'6" and 240 pounds and might become Antonio Gates 2.0.

One issue: Antonio Gates 1.0 is on the Chargers roster and is still listed as the team's starter. Gates had nearly four times as many targets as Green last season. There has been no tangible evidence outside of wild speculation and perhaps wishful thinking that Green will unseat Gates as Philip Rivers' favorite tight end option this season.

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

This is all especially important to highlight this week because Green and Gates are heading into a tight end goldmine against Arizona. The Cardinals allowed an average of 13.61 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2013, per NFL.com. That number is nearly four more points than any other team on a weekly basis. Arizona basically allowed its opponents to become Jimmy Graham week in, week out.

With the Arizona defense suffering a series of injuries, suspensions and departures this offseason, there's little reason to think we'll see much of an improvement. Green and Gates might both wind up with big games Monday night, but here's the greatest lesson in fantasy: Go with the reliable player until there is unimpeachable data that there is a better option.

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