Fleur-De-Lis Fever | 10 Predictions For the New Orleans Saints

The Saints summer break is almost over.

Training camp begins in less than three weeks.

Optimism is oozing out of from every Saints' message board.

People calling into sports talk radio shows across Louisiana are hoping for a Super Bowl parade.

I guess it's time to dust off the ol' crystal ball and make some black and gold predictions.

1. Drew Brees will not lead the league in passing yardage.

Sorry to start off in such a negative fashion. It gets better. I promise.

Brees has been either first or second in the league in passing yardage in each of his three years in New Orleans. Because of improvements in the running game and the defense, Brees won't have to throw as much this season as he did in seasons past. 

Philip Rivers, Brees' former backup, will take Brees' title as the passing leader.

2. The Saints will improve their turnover ratio from -4 to +4.

It's not so much that the Saints turned the ball over at a high rate last season, it's that their defense didn't force a whole lot of them.

The defense only forced ten fumbles (29th in the league) the entire season and picked off 15 passes (t-11th). Of course, three of those interceptions came in a freakishly good game against the Green Bay Packers.

Gregg Williams promises a more aggressive defense. That should translate into more sacks and turnovers.

Also, Pierre Thomas should be handling the bulk of the carries for the first time in his career. He has only fumbled one time.

3. Jahri Evans and Marques Colston will each make their first Pro Bowl.

It's amazing to me that Evans has never made the pro bowl even as an alternate.  Evans is often described as being the best offensive lineman on the squad. While his fellow linemen seem to always get whistled for pre-snap and holding penalties, Evans hardly does.

A healthy season means another 1,000+ yards for Marques Colston. The competition for the pro bowl has become a little less fierce with Terrell Owens, Torry Holt, and Plaxico Burress all exiting the conference.

4. Will Smith will have 10 sacks.

I think this happens whether or not Smith gets suspended for four games this season. 

Smith took the criticism like a man last season. He did not complain or talk about his injuries until after the season. Smith will look to put 2008 in the rear view mirror and have a great 2009.

5. Roman Harper will have at least 100 tackles.

Harper is the classic "in the box" safety. He is the poor man's Roy Williams. He's not great in coverage but is an asset in run support.

For the past two seasons, the free safety combo of Josh Bullocks and Kevin Kaesviharn has been one of the worst in the NFL.

To watch them in pass coverage was like watching a bunch of kids playing tag and they were the slow kid who was always it.

Now the active career leader in interceptions, Darren Sharper, patrols that back of the defense. This will allow Gregg Williams to play Harper closer to the line.

He won't overtake Jonathan Vilma for the team lead in tackles, but he'll easily finish in second for the third year in a row.

6. Tracy Porter will lead the team with four interceptions.

Interceptions are sometimes a misleading statistic, especially for cornerbacks. If an offense notices a weakness in a team's pass defense, they are going to throw more often to that side of the field.

Jason David got the most interceptions last year because he got a lot of opportunities. This doesn't all of a sudden make him the Saints' best cornerback.

Other times, cornerbacks get a lot of interceptions because they are really good. Eric Allen, Deion Sanders, and Darrell Green immediately come to mind.

I think Porter will benefit from being picked on and being really good. Porter is essentially a rookie since he only played in five games last year. He will get picked on as the Saints' second corner.

He will also prove to be really good and make opposing quarterbacks pay for their mistakes.

7. Mike Bell will be the Saints' solution to the their short-yardage woes.

If the Saints are still looking for a back to fill their need for a short-yardage back, they shouldn't look beyond the scope of their roster.

After Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, Bell is the only back on the roster with any game experience. 

Bell was primarily a backup in Denver but did start three games.  He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns on just 157 carries as a rookie.

Like Thomas, he does not have issues with fumbling the ball.

8. The Saints will finish in the top 15 in total defense.

Believe it or not, the Saints have accomplished this feat three times this decade. They were eighth in 2000, 14th in 2005, and 11th in 2006.

This year's defense is probably the most talented Saints defense since 2000. That team featured feared pass rushers Joe Johnson, La'Roi Glover and Darren Howard.  They also had pro bowl linebackers Mark Fields and Keith Mitchell and strong safety Sammy Knight.

This year's defense replaces injury-prone players like Hollis Thomas and Brian Young and appears to have a much better secondary than last year's.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is as solid as they come and the pass defense appears much improved.

9. Garrett Hartley will be an asset in the kicking game.

In eight games Hartley made all 13 field goal and all 28 extra point attempts.  While he didn't attempt any field goals from beyond 47 yards, he proved to be reliable. 

This year I expect coach Sean Payton to test Hartley's range and allow him to attempt field goals in excess of 50 yards. 

10. The New Orleans Saints will finish with a record of...

 ...10-6 and earn a wild card berth. 

The Saints will lose the division in a tie-breaker to the 10-6 Atlanta Falcons.

This team is talented enough to win 11 or 12 games, but the Saints have to figure out how to win on the road. The Saints went a spectacular 6-2 on the road in 2006, an acceptable 4-4 on the road in 2007, but a horrible 2-6 on the road in 2008.

The only games they won on the road last year (not counting the "home game" in London) were against lowly Kansas City and historically bad Detroit.

The overall schedule is a killer too. 

The bye comes too early (week 5), and they have to face the NFC East and the AFC East. 

The silver lining in the schedule is that Tampa Bay appears to be down this year and many of the tougher games (New England, Dallas and New York Giants) are at home. 

The toughest non-divisional road game looks to be in week two when the Saints are Philadelphia's home opener.

There you have it — ten Saintly predictions. 

I can't don't want to make any playoff predictions yet because I don't know who the opponents are going to be. My crystal ball runs on Windows and I haven't upgraded to the playoff edition yet.

Of course, I only really care that the last one comes true. It doesn't matter how they get to the playoffs as long as they get there.