Matt Cassel: Buyer Beware (of YAC)

As you may have already heard, the Kansas City Chiefs just signed Matt Cassel to an extended six-year contract worth over 60 million dollars, with 28 million of that guaranteed.

Signing a still relatively unproven quarterback with Matt Cassel’s less than prestigious background is enough to throw up warning flags for most.  Others will argue that at least he’s proven more in the NFL than rookies like Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez.

However, I am not here to talk about big contracts for backups with one nice year (like David Garrard and Derek Anderson from 2007) or compare them to rookie quarterbacks who are given monster contracts before they even have their first practice in the NFL.

There is another large reason for concern with Matt Cassel beyond the obvious.

Matt Cassel had the third most passing yards after the catch in 2008 even though he only had the eighth most passing yards and the ninth most completions.

If you look at the top ten quarterbacks in the league for passing yards after the catch in 2008, Matt Cassel sticks out like a sore thumb.

Yards after the catch (YAC), accounted for a whopping 57.3 percent of his total passing yards.  The closest to that were Jason Campbell (52.0 percent) and Brett Favre (51.2 percent). 

Even the league’s top two quarterbacks for YAC, Drew Brees and Kurt Warner, paled in comparison to Cassel with YAC comprising 47.3 percent and 47.4 percent of their total passing yards respectively.

Now compare Cassel’s 57.3 percent YAC to that of Jay Culter, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning—they averaged 41.6 percent, 40.9 percent, and 40.7 percent respectively.

Another way of looking at how Matt Cassel was shielded by YAC is the whopping 6.5 yards gained after the catch per completion by Cassel’s receivers in 2008.  The closest quarterbacks were Philip Rivers (5.9) and Drew Brees (5.8).

Compare Cassel’s 6.5 yards after the catch per completion to that of Jay Culter, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning—they averaged 4.9, 4.8, and 4.4 yards after the catch per completion respectively.

Top ten NFL quarterbacks for yards after the catch in 2008

QB	YAC	Yards	YAC%	Comp	YAC/Comp
D.Brees	2398	5069	47.3%	413	5.8
K.Warner	2173	4583	47.4%	401	5.4
M.Cassel	2116	3693	57.3%	327	6.5
J.Cutler	1881	4526	41.6%	384	4.9
P.Rivers	1840	4009	45.9%	312	5.9
D.McNabb	1805	3916	46.1%	345	5.2
B.Favre	1779	3472	51.2%	343	5.2
J.Campbell	1686	3245	52.0%	315	5.4
A.Rodgers	1652	4038	40.9%	341	4.8
P.Manning	1627	4002	40.7%	371	4.4

Some may be wondering what the big deal is with yards after the catch.  The issue with yards after the catch is that that yardage gained after the catch has a lot more to do with the ability of the receiver to evade and/or bulldoze through tacklers than the quarterback’s passing ability.

It is true that an accurate pass will allow a receiver to make the most of his opportunity by catching the ball in stride.  It is also true that a poorly thrown pass will force the receiver to wait for the ball or even worse reach back for it, allowing tacklers to close the gap before the receiver even gets started.

However, I have seen multiple statistical studies that have compared YAC gained by receivers with their starting quarterback and their backup quarterback, and they all concluded the same thing after discovering a very high correlation between the two: YAC says more about receivers than it does about quarterbacks.

Wes Welker, Matt Cassel’s number one target in 2008, is a perfect example of this.  Welker caught 75 percent of the 150 passes thrown in his direction in 2008 for 111 receptions and 1,165 yards.  In 2007, Welker caught 77 percent of the 145 passes thrown in his direction for 112 receptions and 1,175 yards.

Needless to say, Wes Welker led all wide receivers in both YAC and YAC percentage in both 2007 and 2008, gaining the majority of his yards after the catch in both seasons (54.5 percent in 2007 and an insane 62.2 percent in 2008).

No, Matt Cassel was not as good in 2008 as Tom Brady was in 2007, but in Wes Welker’s specific case, it didn’t really matter.

You may be asking yourself why YAC should be a reason to be concerned about Cassel if it wasn’t a reason to question Brady after the 2007 season.  There are two reasons for that.

The obvious one is that Brady still has Wes Welker picking up all those yards for him after the catch, as well as Randy Moss drawing away coverage to clear out space underneath for Welker to operate in, and the Patriots’ tight ends and offensive line clearing away tacklers.  Matt Cassel won’t.

The other, less obvious, reason is that Tom Brady did well with other types of passes and Matt Cassel…well…

On passes that traveled through the air 10 yards or less, Matt Cassel completed 71.6 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions for a passer rating of 98.7.

On passes that traveled through the air more than 10 yards, Matt Cassel completed 40.4 percent of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a passer rating of 63.4.

If the Chiefs cannot provide Matt Cassel the same screen game in 2009, don’t expect to see the same Matt Cassel.