Chicago's Red Stars Control Their Postseason Destiny

After a devastating three game losing streak and teetering on the verge of postseason elimination, the Chicago Red Stars are back.

As they hit the home-stretch, Chicago exhibits a number of promising signs.

Nothing is more promising than the better-late-than never return of Brazilian phenom Cristiane to pre-injury form.

Cristiane has emerged as the club's leading scorer, eclipsing former leader Lindsay Tarpley, with a total of six on the season. The last three were earned in a hat-trick against FC Gold Pride at home on July 12.

It was Chicago's first hat-trick in history (also the first in league history), and their first win streak in history, currently at two.

As the team moves into the final five games in regulation, Cristiane's fulfillment couldn't have happened at a better time.

The turn around began on July 1, at Toyota Park when Chicago became the first WPS team in history to come from behind to victory.

After falling behind Washington Freedom, 1-0, they came back with two goals to win 2-1.

Cristiane and Tarpley accounted for one each.

It continued with more firsts on July 12, also at home, with the first win streak, and the first hat-trick.

In addition, Chicago is in the driver's seat on the road to the playoffs.

Currently sitting in fifth place, but one point shy of a tie for third, the Red Stars will face the three teams directly in front of them (Boston, Sky Blue, St. Louis) and the team directly behind them (Washington) in their last five matches.

A win over either Boston or Sky Blue FC (both on the docket this week) would put them in fourth place (the final playoff berth), at least temporarily.

In fact, Chicago's strategy for clinching a playoff berth is simple. At the very least, Chicago must pass either the Breakers or Sky Blue and keep Washington (currently trailing by a point) from gaining through the end of the schedule.

Yes, it is also possible that Chicago could go 3-2 in their remaining five matches and still miss the dance, if Boston, who seems to be sliding, can reverse their momentum for the third time this year and at least play even with the Red Stars, since Boston, like NY-NJ, is currently a point ahead in a tie for third, or if The Freedom can gain a point or more on the Red Stars down the stretch. 

But, the best news in this for Chicago is that they are in the driver's seat and they have the keys. At least for now, the Red Stars need no help to clinch the final playoff spot since they can gain three points on each of the teams in their way and on Washington Freedom as well. All they have to do is defeat all three teams closest to them in the standings and fourth place is theirs.

But theer is also the opportunity for the Red Stars to advance even further. First place is even a mathematical possiblility. Second place is not inconceivable and third place an extremely realistic goal. It all depends on which of the teams that seem to be peaking in the homestretch is best able to maintain their mojo when it counts.

Chicago can still finish first, if Los Angeles loses the rest of their schedule (three dates remaining), St. Louis loses at least two of their remaining six matches and Chicago runs the table from here out. 

It is not inconceivable that The Red Stars, who appear to be generating more consistent offensive production and have finally put consecutive wins together, could continue a victorious streak.

It is also not inconceivable that St. Louis could lose at least two matches of six remaining, even though they are currently the league's hottest club. In addition to two meetings with FC Gold Pride, Athletica faces Chicago, Boston, Washington and Sky Blue. St. Louis could win them all, lose them all, or something in between.

In the WPS the only thing that is predictable is unpredictability, and tight standings south of first place. Winning more than three of those matches is unlikely. On the other hand, if St. Louis runs the table, look for them to win the Championship.

Should LA go 0-3, St. Louis go 4-2 or and Chicago go 5-0, all three teams would be tied at atop the league with 32 points. Depending on how the clubs fare in head to head competition, tie breakers could go to any of the three, as of now at least.

As preposterous as it may sound, it is not inconceivable, that LA Sol could go winless in their final three outings. (See my article, How LA Can Lose Their Grip..)

While a first place finish is unlikely, a second place finish is possible if not probable if Chicago can maintain their momentum. 

Of course the above assumptions also depend on New York-New Jersey's Sky Blue FC and Boston's Breakers each going at least 4-2 down the stretch. If either or both of these teams do better and/or the Red Stars do worse, Chicago has no chance of finishing higher than fourth. For a second life in the post season fourth is good enough, and most Chicago players and fans would be plenty satisfied just to get their playoff ticket punched.  

However, all of this good news does not necessarily signal the end of Chicago's troubles. The defense has lagged in recent games, due to the absence of their anchor, Marian Dalmy.

In order to maintain a positive course, the defense must return to its typical level of intensity, winning the lion’s share of loose balls.

More speed is needed on counter-attack, and less long-ball clearance.

Dalmy continues to nurse an injury from last month, and may not be field-ready for another week or more.

On the positive side defensively, Natalie Spilger has established herself as a consistent, formidable defender. Jill Oakes has played with distinction in recent games, starting in lieu of Chioma Igwe who has, of late, been relegated to substitution duty.

Lydia Vanderbeck has also played well, getting a couple of starts in Dalmy’s stead.

But without taking anything away from the rest of the corps, Dalmy is the key.

Without Dalmy, Chicago is vulnerable. Opponents have known this, and have done their best to exploit it.

As Cristiane's star has risen, other offensive performances have dropped off a bit.

If Chicago is to make it to the next level, the rest of the offensive corps must return to past performance levels, and Cristiane must continue the rampage she's recently initiated.

With all of that being said, the Chicago Red Stars are in a unique position of being able to finish anywhere between first and sixth as the season's final five matches play out.