Detroit Lions' 2009 Preview: The Beer Thinker's Clouded View

The Beer Thinker had a lot of time on his hands and even though it's only July, he is real anxious for the start of the NFL season.

Here is his (along with my) view of the upcoming Detroit Lions' season.

Detroit Lions

• 2009 Power Ranking—30
• 2008 Total Offense—30
• 2008 Rushing—30
• 2008 Passing—24
• 2008 Scoring—27
• 2008 Total Defense—32

(Power Rankings courtesy of Walter Football.com.  2008 rankings courtesy of NFL.com)

Sept. 13 at New Orleans Saints—Louisiana Superdome

• 2009 Power Ranking—15
• 2008 Total Offense—1
• 2008 Rushing—28
• 2008 Passing—1
• 2008 Scoring—1
• 2008 Total Defense—23

One thing you can depend on is that the Saints will pass the ball. Drew Brees had a stellar year, throwing for 5,069 yards and 34 TD’s. The Lions should be able to score on them; they were ranked 23rd last year in total defense. The Saints will need to outscore other teams to win. This game will be a test for Cunningham on how to attack Brees. The Saints protected him well last year as he was sacked only 13 times. However, Detroit should come away from this game being able to score points on the road.

Sept. 20 vs. Minnesota Vikings—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—16
• 2008 Total Offense—17
• 2008 Rushing—6
• 2008 Passing—25
• 2008 Scoring—12
• 2008 Total Defense—6

From a team focused on the pass to one that features the run game: the Vikings were ranked fifth in rushing and with Adrian Peterson, don’t expect that to change. However, Detroit played the Vikings tough in two games, making Peterson work very hard for his 100-yard games. Despite the fact that Peterson ran for over 100 yards in both games, he never got into the end zone. What concerns me is the "Farve factor." If Favre does play for the Vikings, I give them the nod. If not, it will be a toss-up. 

Sept. 27 vs. Washington Redskins—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking – 19
• 2008 Total Offense – 19
• 2008 Rushing – 8
• 2008 Passing – 23
• 2008 Scoring – 28
• 2008 Total Defense - 28

The Redskins are trying to find just what kind of team they are. After a 4-1 start last year, the Redskins finished up 8-8, ranked 19th in total offense and fourth in total defense. If they can get the offense clicking like they did in the first quarter of last season, the Lions have little chance to win this game. If the Lions' defense can limit Clinton Portis, hold tight end Chris Cooley in check, and force QB Jason Campbell to make the plays, the Lions may have a shot here.

Oct. 4 at Chicago Bears—Soldier Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—7
• 2008 Total Offense—26
• 2008 Rushing—24
• 2008 Passing—21
• 2008 Scoring—14
• 2008 Total Defense—21

Did the Bears find the QB they’ve been looking for since the days of Jim McMahon? Cutler has a stronger arm and passing to Devon Hester is going to be key for the Bears scoring. But will he be more effective than the combination of Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman? That’s going to be the big question for the Bears, if they want to improve on their 2009 offensive rankings.  Matt Forte will grind out the yards, and if Hester can catch the ball, the Bears might have something going with their offense. Defense needs to improve after being ranked 21st overall last year. Cutler’s addition alone has their Power Rank at No. 7 and taking the NFC North looks like it’s going to be between the Bears and the Vikes.

October 11 vs. Steelers—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—3
• 2008 Total Offense—22
• 2008 Rushing—23
• 2008 Passing—17
• 2008 Scoring—20
• 2008 Total Defense—1

The reigning Super Bowl Champs waltz into the Motor City ranked No. 3, mostly due to their defense. The offense was ranked in the bottom half of most categories, but Big Ben Roethlisberger made the plays when he had to. If the Lions have any chance in this game, they must have long scoring drives and control the clock to hopefully tire out the Pittsburgh defense by the fourth quarter. The Lions' defense needs to have a lot of three-and-outs as well as forcing turnovers.

Oct. 18 at Green Bay Packers—Lambeau Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—20
• 2008 Total Offense—8
• 2008 Rushing—17
• 2008 Passing—8
• 2008 Scoring—5
• 2008 Total Defense—20

The Lions have lost 13 straight at Lambeau field, a monkey that needs to be taken off their back. They haven’t beaten the Packers in Wisconsin in 16 games, but then again, the Lions road record over the last 10 years has been abysmal. But the Packers are coming with a Power Ranking of 20, and if the Lions can shut down Aaron Rogers and the passing attack with the new defensive scheme, who knows? This game could be a turning point for the Lions.

Nov. 1 vs. St. Louis Rams—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—29
• 2008 Total Offense—27
• 2008 Rushing—25
• 2008 Passing—26
• 2008 Scoring—30
• 2008 Total Defense—28

The Lions should win this game. The Rams are coming in ranked 29th, just above the Lions, with a new coach, after not really doing much to improve this offseason. Gone is left tackle extraordinaire Orlando Pace who will be protecting Jay Cutler in Chicago and in comes Jason Smith. Look for Cunningham to have the Lions' blitz a lot to get to QB Marc Bulger. If you can rattle him, he will turn the ball over. The Lions can’t ignore running back Steven Jackson:  when healthy, he can shred a defense.

Nov. 8 at Seattle Seahawks—Quest Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—13
• 2008 Total Offense—28
• 2008 Rushing—19
• 2008 Passing—29
• 2008 Scoring—25
• 2008 Total Defense—30

The Seahawks have a new coach as well in Jim Mora, Jr. QB Matt Hasselbeck will have both Dion Branch and TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw to as well as the emerging John Carlson at tight end. The offensive rankings from last year are due to Hasselbeck missed games with a bad back, and when he did play, he was ineffective. He’s healthy coming into this year, and he's ready to roll. The running game is still an issue for the 'Hawks, but if Julius Jones and TJ Duckett can keep the defense honest, the Lions could be in for a very long afternoon. Historically, the Lions haven’t played well on the West Coast…but considering how they’ve been over the last decade, they haven’t played well in any time zone!

Nov. 15 at Minnesota Vikings—Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome

• 2009 Power Ranking—16
• 2008 Total Offense—17
• 2008 Rushing—5
• 2008 Passing—25
• 2008 Scoring—12
• 2008 Total Defense—6

Pretty much the same as when the Lions play the Vikes on Sept. 20. But seeing how this is a road game, I favor the Vikings. Peterson is due to have a huge game against the Lions.  Eventually, they won’t be able to dodge the AP bullet.

Nov. 22 vs. Cleveland Browns—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—32
• 2008 Total Offense—31
• 2008 Rushing—26
• 2008 Passing—31
• 2008 Scoring—30
• 2008 Total Defense—26

The Browns have a QB controversy since Derek Anderson didn’t match his 2007 performance and Brady Quinn is still learning the game. Running back Jamal Lewis isn’t the same player he once was and the defense has a suspect secondary. If Lions' defense can keep pressure on the QB, this could be a good win for them.

Nov. 26 vs. Green Bay Packers—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—20
• 2008 Total Offense—8
• 2008 Rushing—17
• 2008 Passing—8
• 2008 Scoring—5
• 2008 Total Defense—20

Enough is enough. The Lions must win this game since it is their Super Bowl. Playing on Thanksgiving since 1934, this upcoming year marks the 70th anniversary. The Lions would do wonders for fans to win this game. The Packers are going to be just as suspect as when the Lions play them on Oct. 18.  I am looking forward to the annual televised game, though it’s going to be a banner year for the nationally televised Lions. Since the Seahawks play them at Quest Field, I get to see them on TV twice this year! A Thanksgiving Day win would put the Lions back at .500 for Turkey Day games.

Dec. 6 at Cincinnati Bengals—Paul Brown Stadium

• 2009 Power Ranking—18
• 2008 Total Offense—32
• 2008 Rushing—29
• 2008 Passing—30
• 2008 Scoring—32
• 2008 Total Defense—12

The Bengals were ranked 32nd in total offense last year but 12th in total defense, which explains why they won four games. Not much has changed for the Bengals on offense other than adding OT Andre Smith who should give Carson Palmer some better protection. The  Bengals also have backup J.T. O’Sullivan, an ex-Lion QB. They are still going to depend a lot on Palmer’s passing ability to get them into the end zone. The Bengals' running game wasn’t much of a factor last year being ranked 29th in rushing yards with an average of 95 yards per game. The Lions' secondary will be tested, but the defense will have a better chance with Cunningham’s attacking style over the Tepid Two which Palmer could pick apart.

Dec. 13 at Baltimore Ravens—M&T Bank Stadium

• 2009 Power Ranking—6
• 2008 Total Offense—18
• 2008 Rushing—4
• 2008 Passing—28
• 2008 Scoring—11
• 2008 Total Defense—2

This is a very, very tough game. They will be marching into Ray Lewis’s house and though he may not be the player he once was, he still has enough talent to raise the level of those around him. The Ravens' defense was ranked No. 2 last year, just behind the Steelers. Shouldn’t there be some rule that an 0-16 team doesn’t play the top two ranked defenses from last year? I don’t see why not, there are plenty of archaic rules currently in the NFL.  The Ravens will run the ball down the Lions' throat. LT Michael Oher will bring some excellent run blocking skills to help running back Willis McGhaee rip off some big runs. Oher will also bring better protection to second year QB Joe Flacco who is only going to get better.  Ravens don’t ask him to do much, but manage the game and let the defense take over.

Dec. 20 vs. Arizona Cardinals—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—14
• 2008 Total Offense—4
• 2008 Rushing—32
• 2008 Passing—2
• 2008 Scoring—3
• 2008 Total Defense—19

As much as the Cardinals surprised everyone last year being a Super Bowl team, let’s remember they had a regular season of 9-7.  Ranked 32nd last year rushing the ball, the Cardinals had to rely on Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald's big plays to win games. They caught fire in the playoffs and did a fairly good job of shredding Pittsburgh’s defense. Only a great play by Steeler WR Santonio Holmes at the end of the game kept them from getting a ring. The Cardinals climbed a huge mountain getting to a championship game for the first time since 1948; a 60-year span. The game is going to be played at Ford Field and the Lions would do well to jump on the Cardinals and stay on them. You give Warner an inch and he’ll convert it to seven points in the blink of an eye!

Dec. 27 at San Francisco 49ers—Candlestick Park

• 2009 Power Ranking—23
• 2008 Total Offense—23
• 2008 Rushing—27
• 2008 Passing—13
• 2008 Scoring—22
• 2008 Total Defense—13

The Lions do not play well on the West Coast and they have two games scheduled there. Seattle in November and this game at Candlestick Park. WR Michael Crabtree should have plenty of seasoning by the time the Lions get to him, so I expect Crabtree to be the focus of the 49ers' offense... which bodes well for Frank Gore to re-establish himself as one of the premiere backs in the NFL. The Mike Martz experiment is over, failing yet again and new coach Mike Singletary has some decisions to make at the quarterback spot. Right now, Alex Smith should be starting, but with the pickup of Damon Huard, Smith might not hold onto the starting spot of the 49ers. Singletary has little patience for undisciplined play as shown with the Vernon Davis episode. But if the running game is solid and the QB gets the ball into Crabtree’s hands without turning it over, they will give the Lions fits.

 

Jan. 3 vs. Chicago Bears—Ford Field

• 2009 Power Ranking—7
• 2008 Total Offense—26
• 2008 Rushing—24
• 2008 Passing—21
• 2008 Scoring—14
• 2008 Total Defense—21

If the Bears are playing for a playoff spot, the Lions would do wonders for team morale as well as for the City of Detroit if they can pull out a win. I would love to see nothing more then Jay Cutler pouting as Louis Delmas races 60-yards for a score after intercepting his pass.  Even if the Bears are out of it by this time, a win would be a great way to end the season and build momentum going into the 2010 season.

Best chances the Lions have winning games are:

Sept. 13 away against the Saints

Sept. 20 home against the Vikings

Nov. 1 home against the Rams

Nov. 22 home against the Browns

Nov.26 home against the Packers

Dec. 16 away against the Bengals

Dec. 20 home against the Cardinals

Jan. 3 home against the Bears

Before anyone gets their panties in a bunch, this is not a prediction of how many games the Lions will win in 2009. I am merely stating my opinion that these games offer the best chances for Lions to win. 

One of the first things the Lions have to learn how to do is protect their home turf. Once they can establish dominance at home, they can work on playing better on the road. After all, if they can start winning all of their home games, and split their road games, they would find themselves with a 12-4 record, getting some home playoff games and division titles.

If there is a time frame to have Matt Stafford take over, I would think you’d want to start him with the Packer game on Oct. 18. It’s the softest part of the schedule following with the Rams, Seahawks, Vikings, and Browns. 

There you have it folks...a beer-induced haze of the 2009 Detroit Lions season!

Enjoy!