Fantasy Football Crystal Ball: Aaron Rodgers

Having to wait three years behind Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally got his chance to lead the team last year after Favre was traded to the New York Jets days before the first preseason game.

Rodgers had not started a game in his first three seasons with Green Bay, so despite his apparent talent level, he was a big question mark entering the season last year. It didn’t take long for Rodgers to take command of the Packers offense, as he threw for 506 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in leading Green Bay to consecutive wins at the beginning of the season.

Rodgers went on to finish with 4,038 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 63.6 completion percentage, and a respectable 7.5 average yards per attempt. At the same time, the Packers found it hard to win—mostly because of a porous defense—as they stumbled to a 6-10 record.

After a stellar first season at the helm, the future looks bright for Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, entering this season, Rodgers could be considered a sleeper—not in the sense that he’s a player coming out of nowhere, but more in the regard that he’s got the potential to finish as the top fantasy football quarterback.

That’s quite a statement, so let’s take a look at why that might be the case.

First, let’s analyze Rodgers’ numbers from last year. Having never started a game in his previous three seasons, Rodgers entered the year with mental knowledge and experience in the Packers' system, but was basically a rookie when it came to being on the field. And that’s part of the reason his numbers from last year were so impressive—not only did he amass 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns, he also had more than a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Look at his game logs, and you’ll see he had two games where he threw three interceptions. Other than that, he had no multiple-interception games. And though he started strong, he finished even better, as he had 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions in the last seven games of the season. Perhaps what’s most impressive are his completion percentage (63.6), average yards per attempt (7.5) and quarterback rating (93.8). All those stats verify that Rodgers’ skill set has staying power, and his stats can improve.

Look at what Green Bay did in the offseason and you’ll see that the majority of the moves were made to improve the defense; not that it was expected, but it’s acceptable because the offense was great last year. The Packers were fifth in the NFL in points, eighth in total yards, and eighth in passing yards last season. This is a testament to Rodgers’ surrounding cast, which returns mainly intact this season.

Green Bay has a young but talented and improving offensive line, anchored by 10-year veteran tackle Chad Clifton. Running backs Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson form one of the better running back tandems in the league, and the passing game is so good because Rodgers has great options to throw to, including wide receivers Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones to go along with tight end Donald Lee.

The best part is that practically the entire offense returns for Green Bay.

So, what that all means is Rodgers is on track for a spectacular season. He has some lofty expectations to live up to, partly because of Favre’s legacy, but also because of how well he played last season.

Rodgers is not only capable of matching those expectations this season, given his returning supporting cast and his statistics (which display staying power), but he could end up exceeding them.

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