UFC 100 Predictions (Featured Bouts)

** Betting lines are as of 4 PM EST Saturday July 11th**

Featured Bouts / Main Events

Yoshihiro Akiyama 12-1 (-250)  vs  Alan Belcher 14-5 (+190)    

 Make no mistake about it, Dana White desperately, desperately needs Akiyama to be the next big thing in the middleweight division.  For a myriad of reasons, the UFC has failed to gain popularity in the sports other premier market of Japan since the Pride acquisition. Dana knows however, that one dominant japanese superstar could change the entire dynamic of the UFC forever.......

On the surface it looks like UFC matchmaker Joe Silva did Akiyama no favors in picking the "tough as nails" Belcher. But a deeper look reveals a talent gap between the two that Silva and White surely knew when making this fight. Belcher is a solid fighter who will certainly not go away easily,  but Akiyama is just a notch better all around, and I think this will show as the fight goes progresses.....

Akiyama by 3rd rd submission

Jon Fitch 18-3 (-550) vs Paulo Thiago 11-0 (+350)  

  Fitch has beaten everyone thrown in front of him the last several years, excluding GSP. Thiago is undefeated and coming off a miracle knockout over the notoriously hard headed Josh Koscheck. Paulo has taken a ton of flack for his abysmal performance vs Koscheck, and deservedly so. In the end however, it must be remembered that Thiago won, and that is all that matters..... 

Though we won't fully understand the impact of that win on Thiago's confidence until post-fight, I expect to see an inspired performance tonight. Look for Paulo to fight the best fight of his career, and push Fitch harder than most thought he was able... Still won't be enough however, as Fitch's ability to stifle submissions, will be Thiago's undoing....      

Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision

Dan Henderson 24-7 (-200)  vs Michael Bisping 17-1 (+160)  

   The two coaches from the Ultimate Fighter finally get in the ring, and the fight seems to be somehwat lost in the card. Bisping has talked an enormous amount of trash leading up to this fight while Henderson seems content to  "file it away for later". Regardless of how far along Bisping's takedown defense has come, he is simply not going to be able to keep a world class wrestler from taking him down at will. The only question going in to this fight is whether Henderson wants to get into a striking match, or if he would prefer to keep it on the mat.  He has a definitive edge in the latter, and may be better on his feet as well. 

Bisping throws an array of strikes, and clearly thinks his edge is when their toe-to-toe. I just don't see it that way. If Bisping is the better striker, he certainly does not have Henderson's KO power. Look for this fight to start slow, as the two coaches feel each other out, but by round two Henderson's superiority should be apparent.

Give me the quiet, confident guy over the brash, loudmouth in any situation. Does Hendo have enough left in the tank to KO Bisping? Not quite .... 

 Henderson via unanimous decision

         WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP   (Five Rounds) 

  Georges St. Pierre 18-2 (-300) vs Thiago Alves 16-3 (+220)

   What a fight this should be. For perhaps the first time in his career, GSP will not be the stronger fighter entering the octagon when he faces Alves for the title. Both fighters share a mutual respect for one another, and both know the daunting task they face. Granted GSP has matured immensly since not being able to look Matt Hughes in the eyes in their first encounter; but is it possible being the smaller fighter could affect him? Hughes certainly looked beat in his fight with Alves before the bell ever rang, and if GSP goes into tonights fight with any uncertainty it could be a long night for the man universally considered one of the top three pound for pound fighters in the world.

 We all know GSP's strengths, and the ridiculous arsenal of assaults he has in his toolbox. Publicly his camp has stated that GSP has the upper hand in striking, amongst other things. Most would be stunned however if GSP really wants to make this into a striking match. Look for him to test Alves takedown defense early and often, and to try to win this match with uncomparable ground and pound.

  For Thiago Alves, the task is monumental. All he has to do is stuff one of the most potent takedowns in all of MMA, while forcing himself to push the pace so GSP can't find his comfort zone. I don't know how good of a gameplan it is to force the action verse a fighter with St. Pierre's ability. Then again, there really are no good gameplans when one fighter is brilliant at so many disciplines.  

The importance of this fight cannot be stressed enough, either GSP takes his thrown as the pound for pound king, or the Alves era begins.  Either way we're in for one hell of a fight. I just have a  crazy feeling this will be the shock of the night/year.... 

Thiago Alves by KO in rd. 4

WORLD HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP (FIVE ROUNDS, CHAMP VS CHAMP)

 Brock Lesnar 3-1 (-225) vs. Frank Mir 12-3 (+180)

In their first encounter, Brock came out the aggressor, seizing an opening to take Mir down from the get go.  He initially smothered Frank, and neutrilized every submission attempt thrown his way. A questionable decision by Mazzagati to deduct a point from Brock for a blow to the back of the head without any warning given, only seemed to fire up the genetic freak even more. After the restart Brock drops Frank with a straight right, and immediately goes in for the kill. Mir regains his composure and continues to look for submissions. Brock continues to pound from top position, though his hammerfists and elbows don't seem to be inflicting much damage. After Brock stands to continue his assault, Mir sees his opening, grabs the leg and locks in an intricate leglock on the man / mountain, forcing Brock to tap.

Brock goes into this fight with the same initial gameplan,  but looks to utilize the experience he gained in his last couple fights to keep his composure and not overcommit. There should be no bullrushes, no more rookie mistakes, and no more excuses if Mir is to catch him again. Brock seems to think Frank isn't in the same league he is, and the time has come to put up or shut up.

Mir comes into this fight looking better than he ever has. In his last fight, Frank became the first man to ever stop Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The question is whether or not we saw a vastly improved striking game from Mir, or a rapidly deteriorating Nogueira that looked even worse with a blown knee.

I don't see Mir actually trying to stand toe to toe with the monster. Brock may be inexperienced, but the power of his fists cannot be questioned. By the same token I could see Brock smothering Frank in the early rounds leading to some overconfidence and a mistake in the later rounds.

Mir's striking has improved, but he's still not much of a threat to knock out Lesnar, while Brock could certainly knock out Frank. However the same could be said about Mir being a constant threat to submit Lesnar, while not having to worry about getting submitted by the former two-time All-American collegiate wrestler.

I see this fight going one of two ways. Brock by stoppage in the first couple rounds, or Frank by submission in the later rounds. To me Brock's biggest enemy in this fight is himself. If Brock cruises through the first two rounds, and starts to believe that his wrestling is so vastly superiour that he can't get caught; I could see him getting cocky, straying from his gameplan, and having another submission defeat handed to him.

I love what Mir said on UFC 100 Countdown. "On that day, July 11, at UFC 100 in Las Vegas, Nevada... That will always be me night. No matter what comes before, or what happens after. that day will always be my day, and no one is going to take that away from me". When Mir is supremely confident, you see it in the way he fights. A confident Mir is a dangerous Mir that no one in the heavyweight division is anxious to fight.

But is confidence enough to overcome the sheer power of a man who will be 280 lbs. come fight night? I've gone back and forth on this fight too many times to count. In the end I believe that the tape doesn't lie. Brock was dominating their fight until a questionable decision by the ref, and his own ineptitude at submission defense cost him the fight. I think Brock comes in much more relaxed with the mindsight of retaining the belt being a calming force for him. Picturing yourself winning rounds is a very different mentality than thinking you have to knock someone out.

This fight is soo close, but I see Brock overwhelming Mir early to retain his title ..... Brock Lesnar via TKO at the beginning of rd 2.