UFC 100: Breaking Down the Three Main Fights

UFC 100 is an epic milestone for MMA and the Ultimate fighting Championship headlined by two title defenses and some compelling under card bouts, lets hope it delivers.

Also two candidates will be inducted into the hall of fame, if Dana Whites Twitter blog is to be believed it will be former Light Heavy Weight Champion Chuck "the Iceman" Liddell and one of founders of Tapout, Mask who passed away earlier this year.

They will join the ranks of Dan Severn, Mark Coleman, Randy Couture, Royce Gracie and, Ken Shamrock. On a side note, the reason why Matt Hughes hasn't been added to this list is an enigma.

Breaking Down the Fights

Brock Lesnar - 3-1-0- vs Frank Mir -12-3-0 at Heavyweight - This bout is set to finally unify the Heavyweight titles. Mir has the interim and Lesnar the linear belt he won from Randy Couture. This is a rematch, and in their first fight, Mir was the victor via submission, he is the only fighter to defeat Lesnar to date.

Can Mir repeat history or will Lesnar avenge his sole loss?

What this fight really comes down to is how much has Lesnar improved his overall MMA game especially when it comes to submissions and, whether or not Mir's stand-up has improved enough to deal with Lesnar's heavy hands more effectively than their first fight.

Lesnar's keys to victory

Lesnar is powerful and athletic but despite his wrestling pedigree he should look to keep this fight standing. Mir got clocked by a massive right hand from Lesnar and nearly finished the first time around.

So Lesnar should utilize his wrestling ability to get back to his feet and avoid the submissions. Keep pressure on Mir with his longer reach and ever improving boxing skills. He has the strength,weight and speed advantage. Also, Lesnar has been working his submission defense.

Should Lesnar windup on the ground in a dominant position he may go for the ground and pound. But it would be more prudent to take it back to standing and avoid Mir's strength in submissions. Lesnar has explosive striking and incredible agility for a man of his size, this is best wielded on his feet in this fight.

Timing out quick counter shots to Mir's leg kicks with his superior reach could literally end the fight with one punch.

Most important for Lesnar is patience, not getting overzealous. Despite his meteoric rise Lesnar is still inexperienced with just three years in the sport and four fights overall. A solid win over Mir could silence some critics, but the real test lies in defending that title.

Mir's keys to victory 

Mir's BJJ skills are finely honed and he was making guys tap before Lesnar ever knew the sport existed. So while looking for the ground battle and the submission should be Mir's game plan getting there might not be so easy. Lesnar won't be very eager to pursue Mir to the ground carelessly and repeat history.

However Mir showed improved stand-up in his battle with Nogueira and may be willing to trade more this time around also he might not have a choice at the onset of the bout.

Two weapons in his standing arsenal could prove to be effective against Lesnar; leg kicks and uppercuts. Soften him up and then take it to the ground forcing Lesnar to deal with Mir's strength.

No one has really tested Lesnar standing, but utilizing his size against him could work; for example, the key to blocking the uppercut is evasion or putting those arms together and creating a wall. Lesnar may not be able to do this because of sheer size, very large and wide guys can't put their elbows together because of mass of muscle.

Leg kicks to take away mobility slowing Lesnar down and keep him guessing. This could also take away some of his speed and ability to plant on his lead leg to throw the massive right hand. But Mir needs to move to the right avoiding Lesnar's big right hand.

Mir should use a stick and move approach and really mix it up, confusing Lesnar and then take it to the ground. Here again, Lesnar's size makes him more vulnerable to submissions because all that muscle isn't as flexible.

Prediction - The longer this one goes the more it favors Frank Mir, I say Mir by submission in the second or third round.

George St. Pierre - 18-2-0- vs Thiago Alves - 22-4-0 at 170- This bout is for the Welterweight title and St. Pierre's third title defense. Many consider Alves to be kryptonite to the welterweight superman.

What this fight boils down to is GSP having a reach advantage with one of the most well rounded games in the business and, Alves being incredibly strong combined with devastating striking.

The wild card here could be Alves making weight something he's had trouble with in the past. Also if he cuts from around 200 pounds then he could find himself drained in the later rounds.

St. Pierre keys to victory - St. Pierre has a skill set like few others in the sport with incredible athleticism. While Alves size is a factor I think GSP can deal with it the way he does everyone else. Combining a calm efficiency and solid strategy which has proved to be his method of choice in demolishing opponents.

GSP can use his reach and speed advantage to keep Alves guessing. While powerful Alves isn't nearly as fast or dynamic as GSP and doesn't seem to deal well with someone who isn't willing to square up and slug it out.

At some point early on GSP will look to take this to the ground where he has proven nearly unstoppable. While Alves power is a factor, GSP regularly deals with fellow teammates Rashad Evans and Keith Jardine. Both of the LHW contenders state that GSP is impossible to get down or hold there.

Never the less GSP must be wary of Alves striking. Looking at the BJ Penn fight GSP will likely use a similar strategy of wearing Alves down chipping away at his stamina. Then GSP could do as he pleases with a worn out opponent.

Alves keys to victory - Alves has come up the ranks on a seven fight win streak. Destroying most opponents since his last loss to Jon Fitch in late 2006.An aggressive striker with serious knock out power.

Alves needs to chose his shots carefully and not get to eager to try and knock out GSP. While this is his best bet considering his strength how he implements that advantage will determine it's effectiveness.

Simple powerful combinations that force GSP to respect his power early on is key to this plan. Well placed leg kicks and straight punches would prove useful but more importantly is to mix it up as much as possible and avoid the take down.

But avoiding a takedown from GSP is no small feat and one few have accomplished.

GSP can adapt quickly and Alves needs to keep the pressure on so that can't happen adjusting his range to keep out of take down range and keep GSP from getting comfortable. While forcing the fight Alves should look to finish if he can but, also needs to pace himself for the long haul of five rounds.

It's a delicate balance of applying pressure and making sure he can do so for the duration of the fight if he can't get the knock out early on.

Prediction -  This one should be exciting, but there is a small chance it could end up being a fight that is either really exciting or very boring depending on the clash of styles. I pick GSP via decision or submission.

Dan Henderson - 24-7-0-vs Micheal Bisping - 18 -1 -0 at 185- This one determines who gets the next crack at the middle weight champion  Anderson Silva. Also this one has the potential to be the least exciting.

Henderson is in the later years of his illustrious career but shows no signs of slowing down. A contender at 205 and 185 he has been in the game for over a decade and fought the best.

Bisping, a TUF alumni who moved down to middleweight after his sole loss to Rashad Evans. He will face a step up in competition when he fights Henderson.

Henderson wants another shot at Anderson  Silva being one of the only fighters to even take a round against the middle weight king. At this point in his career Henderson is looking for the gold and the glory of beating Silva.

Bisping has climbed the ranks in UFC racking up seven wins with only one loss within UFC and has shown that he wants to step up and challenge for the title.

Henderson's keys to victory - Anyone whose seen Henderson fight know that he has a granite chin world class wrestling and, a right hand that is as strong as his chin. That being said Henderson's game hasn't changed much but, that's because it works for him.

Henderson will look to take Bisping down and ground and pound his way to victory. Henderson needs to make sure his conditioning is up to par, in his last bout with Rich Franklin he showed signs of gassing in the third round.

Most importantly he can't get lured into a prolonged stand up battle with Bisping who has more diversified striking arsenal than Henderson. While he wouldn't really be in danger of getting knocked out he could easily lose on points.

If he has to keep it standing then he should grind Bisping along the fence working some in close dirty boxing.

Landing that big right hand early on and getting Bisping to fear his power will make taking him to the ground easier. Once there Henderson must be wary of Bisping's BJJ skills. But control and steady ground and pound has been part of Henderson's game for years and few do it better.

Bispings keys to victory - Bisping has come a long way from his TUF days and is always improving. He needs to be sure to keep moving  watch out for the right hand and take downs. Bisping is younger and faster two advantages he should look to utilize.

Making Henderson miss then countering with varied combinations will give Bisping time to find an effective rhythm. Looking to test Henderson's conditioning and wear him down while avoiding the take down is what Bisping will want to do.

Leg kicks if they don't prove to risky would help slow Henderson down but watch out for the overhand right counter.

Should he find himself on the ground, Bisping should work for a submission if he can't get back to his feet. Otherwise trying to hold Henderson forcing the ref to step in and stand them up.

Whatever the case Bisping does not want to be on the receiving end of Henderson's ground and pound. This is a big step up for Bisping and defeating Henderson will prove he is ready for a title shot.

Prediction - The potential for these two to stalemate each other will likely lead to a split decision for Henderson.

The rest of the card - With 11 fights total, five of which are televised, here is the remainder of the card

Televised

Jon Fitch-22-3-0-1 No Contest  vs. Paulo Thiago 11-0 at 170-Thiago burst into the UFC with a knock out of Josh Koscheck at UFC 95. This could be a long fight depending on how Thiago deals with Fitch's tenacity and experience, either way I pick Fitch by TKO or decision.

Yoshihiro Akiyama 12-1-0-2 NC vs. Alan Belcher-14-5-0 at 185- Akiyama is a Judo practitioner making his UFC debut coming from Dream and K-1 Heroes. Belcher is a tough competitor with experience in the cage. If Akiyama can adapt from the ring to the cage and the elbows then he should grind out a solid decision. If not, then Belcher by TKO.

Untelevised 

Mark Coleman-15-9-0 vs. Stephan Bonnar-14-5-0 at 205

Mac Danzig-19-6-1 vs. Jim Miller-13-2-0 at 155

Jon Jones-8-0-0 vs Jake O'Brien-11-2-0 at 205

Dong Hyun Kim-11-0-1-1 NC vs TJ Grant-14-2-0 at 170

CB Dollaway-9-2-0 vs Tom Lawlor-5-1-0-1 NC at 185

Matt Grice-10-2-0 vs. Shannon Gugerty-11-3-0 at 155

Hopefully some of the televised fights are over quick enough to allow some of these others to be seen. I would like to see some more of Jone Jones and Dong Hyun Kim. Danzig vs. Miller could be exciting, and Coleman vs. Bonnar is one where both guys could use a win at this point, so both should come as strong as they can.

This card will give the UFC it's first Heavyweight Champion officially since Randy Couture. Also should GSP continue to reign then we will have to see who's next for the Welter Weight title.The winner of Bisping versus Henderson gets a crack at Anderson Silva's Middleweight Title.

This event will help shape some of the fights to come later this year and test both champion and challenger. Also for the UFC as a whole this milestone symbolizes a sure sign of being firmly established.

No small feat in such turbulent times, but perhaps the entertainment value is as simple as those in other times where people faced an uncertain world. The populace was often allowed to forget their troubles as they watched Gladiators in Rome.