NBA Free Agency Shakes Up Fantasy Basketball Prospectus

Two things can happen in free agency.  Bad teams can use it as a method to quickly improve their roster if they're willing to spend some cash.  Or, good teams can get better.

For over a year now we've known that the bad are looking to get better in the summer of 2010 which in turn means the good teams are separating themselves from the pack in 2009.

No matter how bad a team is they will still score between 90 and 110 points per game.  They will still start five professional basketball players.  And those players will be the steals of the fantasy basketball season.

Let's take a closer look at how the free agent signings to date have impacted the fantasy basketball landscape.


Ron Artest Signs with Los Angeles and Trevor Ariza Signs with Houston

These two individual deals worked out like a trade and the two will assume each other's starting roles on their respective teams.

As a starter on LA, Ariza only averaged 28 minutes per game. I expect Ron Artest to play in the low 30s but he won't touch the 37 minutes per game he averaged as a starter in Houston. 

The reduction in playing time will have an immediate impact on all of Artest's statistics. 

Another thing that may impact Artest's numbers is how quickly he can adapt to the triangle.  He should be able to post up when Pau Gasol is in the game but if Bynum is in Artest will be reduced to three-pointers and offensive rebounds.

Ultimately, the added attention of his new team will create a buzz and artificially increase Artest's fantasy value.  Don't pay a premium for a player with declining minutes who hasn't played more than 70 games since the 2003-04 season due to altercations and his physical style of play.

On the other hand, Trevor Ariza could be a fantasy steal, or bust, depending on how much owners view the move to Houston.

I think an increased role in the offense will expose Ariza's game.  He shot 31.9 percent from behind the arc and 29.4 percent as a starter, although analysts continued to praise him for his three point shooting. 

He has yet to show he is a one-on-one scorer but he will get chances.  On the bright side his 36 minute per game projections having him grabbing 6.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game.

I see Ariza's scoring average floating around 15 points per game but if he can average over two steals per game and record the occasional double-double he will warrant a mid-round draft pick. 


Rasheed Wallace Signs with Boston

Even if the Boston PA announcer has his RAAAASSSSSHHHHHEEEEEDD WAWAWAWALLACEEE ready I'm not sure if he will ever get a chance to use it. 

Rasheed Wallace looks to be joining Boston as their sixth man because of his ability to come in at the four or the five.  When Boston is at full strength it could result in Wallace averaging less than 30 minutes per game for the first time in a decade.

Sheed is always an attractive fantasy prospect because he hits threes, blocks shots, steals balls, rebounds, and scores some too.  On the other hand he is 34 years old and only played 66 games last year.

I think Sheed will still be able to post similar numbers to his past three seasons (12 points, 7 rebounds, 1.5 threes, 1 steal, 1 block) but Kevin Garnett could really take the fantasy-hit in 2009-10.

KG is coming off a serious knee injury and the Celtics will make sure he's peaking at the right time next year.  That means he should be playing limited minutes when your fantasy team is in the playoffs.

Don't deal with the potential injuries and the production drop-off at the end of the season from KG—look elsewhere in the opening rounds of next-years drafts.

The last big in the equation is Kendrick Perkins.  If anything I expect Perkins' numbers to go up next year, especially if he can avoid foul trouble with Wallace spelling him more often.


Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva Sign with Detroit

For one-on-one scoring in the NBA, Ben Gordon ranks right behind only Kobe Bryant.  This is a sign Gordon will get his on any team, including the Pistons.

There is some uncertainty whether or not Richard Hamilton will be in Detroit when the season starts but for the time being he is.

With Gordon consuming some of the half court offense, it will take looks away from Hamilton—who is not a fantasy monster, but his high-teens scoring average and good percentages are appreciated.  It's doubtful that Gordon will have a major impact over Hamilton though.

Having another knock-down perimeter shooter will increase Rodney Stuckey's 5.1 assists per game average as a starter last year.

Down low, Charlie Villanueva will ease the pain of Rasheed Wallace leaving and the younger, more athletic, player will be an upgrade statistically.

Villanueva is a developing three-point shooter and he should be just under the 20 point, 10 rebound mark with over 30 minutes per game. 

Detroit has paid Villanueva and I expect they will use him plenty, giving him great potential to be a fantasy boomer.

With Gordon leaving Chicago, and Villanueva leaving Milwaukee, there will be an opportunity for players to step-up on those teams.

The Bucks have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute waiting in the wings to start at PF.  RMaM is not a major scoring threat but he steals and gets rebounds, making him a good late-round sleeper.

The Bulls have a few guys who will consume Gordon's minutes and stats.  Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons will get most of it but some of the points will go to Derrick Rose.


Hedo Turkoglu Signs with Toronto

The Raptors have one of the thinnest benches in the NBA which should result in Hedo Turkoglu playing 36+ minutes per game. 

He will post numbers similar to his Most Improved Player year (19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists) as the number two option on Toronto, ranking him in the 45-65 range, or a good fourth-sixth round pick.

Turkoglu left Orlando after they brought in Vince Carter.  Carter will fill his role in the offense but not his position. 

Look for Rashard Lewis to slide down to small forward and Ryan Anderson to play the power forward, where he will be a great sleeper pick—especially with Orlando's roster getting thinned out.