Penn State: Coaching Versus Recruiting

Penn State: Coaching versus Recruiting 
I would like to give myself a compliment and say I am a Penn State fan and like most PSU fans I think we are underappreciated and under ranked.  I also think/thought that we recruited way under our potential but because of our great and experienced coaches we make good players into great ones and mediocre into good or better, at least according to their rankings coming in as freshman. I might say Poz or Royster or Butler but there are way more.
So I set out to prove my theory (and at the same time proving I have no life). I would compile the recruiting classes for 5 years. The reasoning is that using a 5 year period should average out discrepancies. Some freshman play their first year, some take more time, but 5 years should be enough for all but the class of 2008 to make a difference and some freshman even have an immediate impact(T. Pryor). Then I would compile the top 25 rankings for the last 5 years.  I would subtract the recruiting class from the ranking and see what I would get. I also decided that I wouldn't let one year unduly influence the curve and only took teams that were in the top 25  at least 3 out of the 5 years. This way if your team was in the top 25 only once but had a score of -200 it would not show up in my final summary.  Let's take one year out of context for an example. If PSU had a recruiting class of say 50th but they came in 20th in the rankings then 20-50 = -30, a very good mark. If they could average -30 or more over a 5 year period and that was the best of the entire top 25, well that would prove my hypothesis. Well the best laid plans of mice and men…..
Here are some tables and some conclusions. The table directly below is sorted by alphabetical order.

Ap poll   end of year ranking  recruiting class calculation year
Auburn (3) 13-0  2 31 -29 2004
Auburn 9-3 14 22 -8 2005
Auburn 11-2 9 9 0 2006
Auburn 9-4 15 6 9 2007
Auburn   -7 
Boise State 11-1  12 72 -60 2004
BoiseState(1)13-0 5 44 -39 2006
Boise State 12-1  11 64 -53 2008
Boise State   -51 
BostonCollege 9-3 21 42 -21 2004
Boston College 9-3  18 58 -40 2005
BostonCollege10-3 20 44 -24 2006
BostonCollege11-3 11 50 -39 2007
BostonCollege   -31 
Brigham Young 11-2 673 16 46 -30 2006
BrighamYoung 11-2 14 42 -28 2007
Brigham Young 10-3  25 57 -32 2008
Brigham Young   -30 
California 10-2 9 29 -20 2004
California 8-4  25 9 16 2005
California10-3 14 23 -9 2006
California   -4.3 
Florida  9-3 12 11 1 2005
Florida (64) 13-1  1 2 -1 2006
Florida 9-4 13 1 12 2007
Florida (48) 13-1  1 12 -11 2008
Florida   0.3 
Georgia10-2 7 6 1 2004
Georgia10-3 10 4 6 2005
Georgia9-4 23 4 19 2006
Georgia (3) 11-2  2 17 -15 2007
Georgia 10-3 13 5 8 2008
Georgia   3.8 
Louisville  11-1 6 54 -48 2004
Louisville 9-3  19 43 -24 2005
Louisville12-1 6 26 -20 2006
Louisville   -31 
LSU 9-3  16 2 14 2004
LSU11-2 6 19 -13 2005
LSU 11-2  3 7 -4 2006
LSU (60) 12-2  1 5 -4 2007
LSU   -1.8 
Michigan 9-3  14 5 9 2004
Michigan11-2 8 10 -2 2006
Michigan 9-4  18 10 8 2007
Michigan   5 
OhioState   8-4 20 11 9 2004
Ohio State 10-2  4 7 -3 2005
Ohio State 12-1  2 13 -11 2006
OhioState11-2 5 16 -11 2007
Ohio State 10-3  9 4 5 2008
Ohio State   -2.2 
Oklahoma 12-1  3 7 -4 2004
Oklahoma 8-4 22 5 17 2005
Oklahoma11-3 11 8 3 2006
Oklahoma11-3 8 30 -22 2007
Oklahoma 12-2  5 13 -8 2008
Oklahoma   -2.8 
Oregon       10-2 13 30 -17 2005
Oregon        9-4 23 9 14 2007
Oregon         10-3  10 23 -13 2008
Oregon    -5.3 
OregonState10-4 21 41 -20 2006
Oregon State 9-4  25 40 -15 2007
Oregon State 9-4  18 61 -43 2008
Oregon State   -26 
Penn state(63) 26 12 14 2004
Penn State 11-1  3 28 -25 2005
Penn State    9-4 24 6 18 2006
Penn State(26) 26 19 7 2007
Penn State 11-2  8 41 -33 2008
Penn State   -3.8 
TCU 11-1 11 63 -52 2005
TCU 11-2 22 73 -51 2006
TCU 11-2  7 114 -107 2008
TCU   -70 
Tennessee 10-3  13 10 3 2004
Tennessee 9-4  25 24 1 2006
Tennessee    10-4 12 4 8 2007
Tennessee   4 
Texas11-1 5 10 -5 2004
Texas (65) 13-0  1 13 -12 2005
Texas10-3 13 3 10 2006
Texas10-3 10 3 7 2007
Texas 12-1  4 16 -12 2008
Texas   -2.4 
TexasTech  9-3 20 36 -16 2005
TexasTech9-4 22 44 -22 2007
TexasTech11-2 12 59 -47 2008
TexasTech   -28 
USC (62) 13-0  1 1 0 2004
USC 12-1  2 6 -4 2005
USC 11-2  4 1 3 2006
USC (1) 11-2  3 2 1 2007
USC (1) 12-1  3 9 -6 2008
USC   -1.2 
Virginia Tech 10-3  10 26 -16 2004
VirginiaTech11-2 7 18 -11 2005
Virginia Tech 10-3  19 31 -12 2006
VirginiaTech11-3 9 25 -16 2007
VirginiaTech10-4 15 20 -5 2008
VirginiaTech   -12 
WestVirginia11-1 5 33 -28 2005
West Virginia 11-2 1,035 10 56 -46 2006
West Virginia11-2 6 18 -12 2007
West Virginia     9-4 23 36 -13 2008
West Virginia   -25 
Wisconsin 9-3  17 37 -20 2004
Wisconsin 10-3  15 35 -20 2005
Wisconsin12-1 7 37 -30 2006
Wisconsin   9-4 24 41 -17 2007
Wisconsin     -22 

The table below is sorted by grade
Team                     Grade         # in top 25                     Conference 
TCU                        -70                 3                           Mountain West   
Boise State             -50.7                3                           WAC   
BostonCollege          -31                  4                            ACC   
Louisville                 -30.7               3                            Big East  
Brigham Young         -30                  3                            Mountain West  
TexasTech              -28.3               3                            Big 12  
Oregon State          -26                  3                            Pac 10  
West Virginia          -24.8                4                            Big East  
Wisconsin              -21.8                4                            Big 10   
VirginiaTech           -12                   5                           ACC  
Auburn                  -7                    4                            SEC  
Oregon                  -5.3                  3                            Pac 10  
California               -4.3                3                            Pac 10  
Penn State            -3.8                 3                            Big 10  
Oklahoma              -2.8                 5                            Big 12  
Texas                   -2.4                 5                            Big 12  
Ohio State             -2.2                 5                            Big 10  
LSU                      -1.75               4                             SEC  
USC                      -1.2                5                             Pac 10  
Florida                   0.25               4                             SEC  
Georgia                  3.8                 5                             SEC  
Tennessee             4.00                3                             SEC  
Michigan                5.00                3                             Big 10  

The table below is sorted by which conference Is represented the most.
Table by conference Times represented
SEC                                 5
Big 10                              4
Pac 10                             4
Big 12                              3
ACC                                 2
Big East                           2
Mountain West                  2
WAC                                1

The last two tables are a summary of the top table. I put it in for your perusal.
Here are my conclusions (yours might be different):
It seems that the better you recruit the harder it is to have a "good" mark. If you have good recruiting classes every year (i.e.  USC) it is close to impossible to get a -70 or even a -20, therefore I will break up my analysis in two parts, 1-the good recruiting schools and 2-the weak recruiting schools.
Even so, there are some teams that in their respective "sphere of recruiting", do better than other teams and quite consistently. These teams in my estimation have superior coaches.
The weak recruiting schools: Boston College has the 3rd worst recruiting class in the table but has been in the top 25 for 4 out of 5 years.  Look at TCU, 3 times in the top 25 in the last 5 years and their best recruiting class was 63rd.No matter how you slice it that is superior coaching.
Now the "strong conferences": It's no surprise that they recruit better but what do they do with this excellent raw material? I'll take Georgia as the most disappointing team as they have excellent recruiting classes (3rd over all) but frankly did not do much with it.
My take on the Big Ten: The Big Ten is only behind the SEC for number of teams on the list. Ohio State really does reload. They have pretty good recruiting classes but back it up every year. Michigan on the other hand is a disappointment considering their recruiting prowess vs. their rankings and that is not even counting last year's 97th placing.  Penn State by the numbers really does look like they need at least two years to develop their players no mater what the talent. I feel a change in the wind and I think we are moving in the right direction and our turn around time will be much shorter in the future. Wisconsin is the opposite of Michigan. They can't recruit a lick but definitely do wonders with what they have. I always looked at Wisconsin as a disappointment but the numbers do not bear that out.
All I can say is that the numbers don't support me but I still think the best coaching staff is at Penn State.

Just ask JoePa he'll tell you.