Fantasy Factory: Analyzing Picks One Through Ten (No. 1-3)

I promised I wouldn't let an article get written about Fantasy Football until at least the Fourth of July. Well, I was pretty close.

To kick off what will surely be another amazing Fantasy season filled with busts, late round gems, and injuries, we will be looking at what to do with one of your most important picks, the first-rounder.

Now don't get me wrong, I know that most drafts are won in the later rounds, right between your seventh and 10th picks. The ones where you have to draft the sleepers and the promising rookies.

But that doesn't take away from the severity of your first pick. This article will help you make the right decision.

Now, when I get to future articles concerning later picks, I will not be choosing the same players as my final verdict, I will be changing it up to hopefully expand the mind into making what they believe is the final and correct choice.

Is it Too Early?

It is one of the most popular questions in Fantasy sports. And there really is a simple answer, no.

Technically, if you have the second pick in the draft, is it too early to draft Larry Fitzgerald? Well, no.

If you like Larry Fitzgerald enough to draft him at two, there's an extremely good chance he doesn't fall to pick No. 19 [assuming a 10-team league drafting snake style] which would be your next selection.

Does that mean that drafting Tony Gonzalez with the fifth pick is ok? Well, no. Tony Gonzalez is someone that can be found in the sixth and seventh rounds. That would mean that taking Gonzo with your fourth- or fifth-round pick would be a better choice.

Remember, mock drafts were made for a reason.

Drafting at No. One, Two, or Three

Now, let's get down to business.

Let's assume you have one of the following picks. Many people draft in many different styles. A lot of people think that going WR-WR is the smartest thing [this is scientifically proven as smart, but we'll get to that later], and some people like getting their running backs early, as they are the most consistent on a week to week basis.

However your style, here are four players, that I find logical choices to draft at the aforementioned draft positions.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Far and away one of the best running backs in the National Football League. Peterson has been one of the more consistent running backs in the league, Peterson will most likely be the first selection in roughly 80 percent of all leagues.

Why Adrian Peterson Should Be Your No. 1 Pick

• He rushed for 100 or more yards 10 times in 2008
• Increased his workload by about six carries per game from his rookie season, edging closer to being the$ full-time back
• Eleven games last season with at least 20 carries
• Added muscle going into camp this season, allowing Peterson to see extra playing time on pass protection

Why Adrian Peterson Shouldn't Be Your No. 1 Pick

• Only scored 10 touchdowns last season, you can sacrifice all his yards for someone who sees paydirt more
• Type of league. Adrian Peterson takes a serious hit in PPR leagues to the running backs that follow

Final Verdict: Adrian Peterson is still the man, and a completely viable option with the No. 1 pick. Don't expect Peterson to fall to even the third pick.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Turner the Burner rewarded everyone in last year's draft who took him in the fourth or fifth round with a flyer choice with an incredible 1,600-yard season with plenty of touchdowns to go around. But how does he stack up in 2009?

Why Michael Turner Should Be Your No. 1 Pick

• Has only been a "starter" for one season, and still completely fresh for his second season
• The acquisition of Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez opens up the running game even more
• And don't forget, Gonzalez can block better than... Wait... Who was Atlanta's TE last year?

Why Michael Turner Shouldn't Be Your No. 1 Pick

• An extremely hefty workload last season could catch up with him [over 370 carries]
• An elite passing game may happen this year in Atlanta. Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and Harry Douglas could give Turner even fewer opportunities
• Assuming the previous statement is true, or ATL just wants to lessen his load, say Turner gets 330 carries, that puts him on pace for roughly 1,480 yards and 12 TD's. Certainly great numbers, but maybe not
  No. 1 material

Final Verdict: You might get some slack for passing on the great AP, but don't worry about it. Turner's lack of carries in his first few years should make him fine after one long season.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Matt Forte...Another running back that you could've had pretty late last season. Factor in DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Jonathan Stewart, and that's a hefty load of great running backs.

Why Matt Forte Should Be Your No. 1 Pick

• Finally...Someone who can catch the ball out of the backfield, major plus in his stock for PPR leagues
• Great Offensive Line + Great Defense + Windy Conditions + Freezing Weather = One great fantasy running back
• Lack of passing options for new man behind the center Jay Cutler should make for lots of checkdowns to Matt Forte

Why Matt Forte Should Not Be Your No. 1 Pick

• An extremely hefty workload in his rookie season could make for a sophomore slump
• If Jay Cutler finds his groove, the running game could lose 5-8 carries a game [or, according to Forte's average from last season, two or four fantasy points... per week.]

Final Verdict: Even I have to admit I wasn't a big Forte fan until I wrote this column. Anyone taking a count, that's only two con's with three pro's.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Somewhat of a surprise when most people opened their draft kits, MJD is projected to go in the first five or six picks in this coming fantasy season.

Most people are truly blind to what an incredible season MJD could have, but also be cautious of the downfall that he could also meet.

Why Maurice Jones-Drew Should Be Your First Pick

• MJD will finally be the starter in Jacksonville after a few seasons as a back up. Expect his first season over 1,000 yards
• MJD is the tied with Forte as the most valuable back overall if you're a member of a PPR league
• Jacksonville will most likely continue to be a run first team, though the addition of Torry Holt is something that I think went a little under the radar

Why Maurice Jones-Drew Should Not Be Your First Pick

• No one, not even the so called experts, not even Jacksonville management can predict if MJD's body will handle the full workload
• The addition of an excellent wide receiver in Holt could take away a few of the targets that MJD might've seen

Final Verdict: In PPR leagues, MJD could be taken even nearer to the top of the draft, though still may fall past Forte due to his proven ability

Final Thoughts
When all is said and done, the four guys that were just mentioned should be within about 30 points of each other, which equals out to about two points per week.

So if you lose by a point or two, it would be easy to blame it on Turner when AD has a stellar week, or you could instead blame it on when your draft day blunder really occurred. Somewhere in the later rounds.

Written By, and Created By Travis Rand, NYG Community Leader and Fantasy Football Writer