Is Fantasy Football's "Sophomore Slump" Fact or Fiction?

The 2008 NFL season was a special one for rookie running backs. 

We saw Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton break the 1,000 yard rushing mark. Kevin Smith and Jonathan Stewart chimed in with 976 and 836 yards respectively. Darren McFadden, Tashard Choice, Ray Rice, Tim Hightower, Jamall Charles, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Felix Jones all had success at one time or another during the year. 

Now there are talks that last year's fantasy football heroes will vilify many rosters, consuming early-round draft picks only to deliver let-down. 

In other words, fantasy owners are worried these players will encounter the fabled "sophomore slump."

What is the sophomore slump?  Is it avoidable?  And who will it happen in 2009?

Those are the three biggest questions fantasy owners are asking themselves as they decide where they should rank these perennial one-hit-wonders amongst the NFL's elite rushers.


Defining the "Sophomore Slump"

Before we can determine who it will happen to, we must determine what exactly the sophomore slump is.

In short, the sophomore slump is a serious decline in production between your first and second year in the NFL. 

But what leads to the slump?  It's hard to believe that a player would actually get worse from his first to second year in the NFL.


Rookie-to-Sophomore Season Breakdown

Now we know what the slump is and we need to know what causes it.  In order to do that let’s look at who it has and hasn't happened to.

I compiled all of the rookie rushers who approached the 1,000 yard mark in their first year since entering the NFL in 1999, and compared the numbers between their first and second years.  It came to 17 backs in total, a solid sample size.

I did leave Jamal Lewis off of the list because he missed his entire sophomore season with a knee injury but for the record in 2000 he posted 1,364 yards in 16 games and in 2002 he ran for 1,327 yards in 16 games, which is roughly the same.

Dominic Rhodes also missed his sophomore season after recording 1,104 yards on 233 carries in 15 games as a rookie and he was left off the list.

Here's the data: I looked at the games played, rushing attempts, and rushing yards from each season.  I also looked at the change in rushing yards per game from year one to year two and you can find the totals and averages at the bottom.

 

Player	Y1 G	Y1 A	Y1 Y	Y2 G	Y2 A	Y2 Y	YPG Change
Adrian Peterson	14	238	1341	16	363	1760	14.21
Marshawn Lynch	13	280	1115	15	250	1036	-16.70
Joseph Addai	16	226	1081	15	251	1072	3.90
Maurice Jones-Drew	16	166	941	15	167	768	-7.61
Ronnie Brown	15	207	907	13	241	1008	17.07
Cadillac Williams	14	230	1179	14	225	798	-27.14
Willis McGahee+	16	284	1128	16	325	1247	7.44
Julius Jones	8	197	819	13	257	993	-25.99
Kevin Jones	15	241	1133	13	186	664	-24.46
Domanick Williams	14	238	1031	15	302	1188	5.56
Clinton Portis	16	273	1508	13	290	1591	28.13
LaDainian Tomlinson	16	339	1236	16	372	1683	27.94
Anthony Thomas	14	278	1183	12	214	721	-24.42
Mike Anderson	16	297	1487	16	175	678	-50.56
Edgerin James	16	269	1553	16	387	1709	9.75
Ricky Williams	12	253	884	10	248	1000	26.33
Olandis Gary	12	276	1159	1	13	80	-16.58
Total	243	4452	19,684	229	4266	17,996	-2.42
Average	14.2	267.8	1171.4	13.4	256.19	1076.7	-2.42

+ Willis McGahee was inactive the entire year after he was drafted due to an injury he sustained at Miami.  His numbers are from his first and second years of play.


Initial Findings

On average we saw a decline of 2.42 yards per game on average and a decline of 0.8 games played per player from their first to second year. 

In other words, we saw a very minimal impact from the success players had as rookies and the success they had as sophomores, on average.

As expected, the averages suggest much less volatility in the difference from the players' first and second seasons than by looking at the individual outcomes.

Nine saw an increase and eight saw a decrease in their rushing yardage production.

Ten saw an increase, and seven saw a decrease in the amount of times they carried the ball.

Four saw an increase, eight saw a decrease, and five saw no change in the amount of games played.


Outliers, Oddities, and Observations

The first outlier appears to be Olandis Gary who incurred a season-ending injury the first game of his sophomore season with Denver. Mike Anderson came in to replace Gary, and had a Rookie of the Year season, only fall victim to injuries the following year.  Anderson was still able to play but he shared time with Terrell Davis and Gary.

Willis McGahee, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James were the only four players to play all 16 games both years and see an increase in rushing production from year one to year two.

Marshawn Lynch was the only player to play in more games his second year and see a decrease in production. 

Julius Jones has one of the most intriguing journeys of all the backs.  He earns the starting role in the second half of his rookie season with the Cowboys when Eddie George was hurt.  His sophomore season the Cowboys drafted Marion Barber to split time with him.

As for Anthony Thomas there aren't a lot of great explanations aside from being a Michigan running back in the Chicago Bears offense.

Kevin Jones was also playing on a very bad Lions offense but he shared more carries in his sophomore year which helps explain his decline.


Is the Sophomore Slump Avoidable?

Yes and no.

It seems as though the slump is as much avoidable as it is unavoidable, but that doesn't mean it's simply chance.  Through the research we can outline some key indicators of success and failure.

Injuries, tougher competition, more aware competition, playing for a worse team, and a reduction in role can all lead to declines in production.

Good health, weaker competition, playing for a better team, and an increased role can all lead to improvements in production.


Who Will Slump in 2009?

The first player I have questions about is Matt Forte who carried the ball 316 times for 1,238 yards in 16 games. 

Forte has already suffered a hamstring injury this summer and he is playing on an offense that has added weapons, meaning they should be able to save Forte's legs a bit more this season.

That being said, of the players we looked at only James and Tomlinson broke the 300 carry mark and both of them were more successful in 16 games the following year.

Chris Johnson is the next back to take a look at.  Johnson was the starter in a shared backfield where he accumulated 1,228 rushing yards on 251 carries in 15 games. 

Johnson doesn't get many short-yardage or goal line carries but he was very successful in his role last season and I expect the Titans to continue finding ways to get him the ball.  The only problem in Tennessee is that they might not be in the same position to run the ball late in games like they were last year.

Steve Slaton led all rookies in rushing yards with 1,282 on 268 carries in 16 games. Houston has improved their defense, putting them in a position to run more late in games, and Slaton will enter the season solidly as the number one back.

The last back I would expect to see slump in 2009 is Slaton. He has been adding muscle over the summer and he is a great dual threat option for the Texans.

The Detroit Lions play one of the tougher schedules to rush against which might not bode well for Kevin Smith.  On the other hand, the Lions will be an improved team including the addition of Maurice Morris who should earn carries.

For Smith his slump-ability comes down to injuries. Smith was slowed in the middle of the 2008 season but he was able to play all 16 games and finish with 976 yards on 238 carries.

The best non-starting rookie RB last season was Jonathan Stewart who amassed 836 rushing yards on 184 carries. 

The Panthers would like to use Stewart in perfect-tandem with DeAngelo Williams but the team will go from playing one of the weakest non-conference schedules in 2008 to facing the AFC and NFC East in 2009. 

If Williams gets banged up, Stewart should have no problem avoiding a slump, however.

Darren McFadden didn't make a stellar impression in his rookie season, playing in 13 games with 113 carries for 499 yards. McFadden struggled with injuries which, hopefully, wasn't a precursor to 2009 and the rest of his career.

One back who was almost absent as a rookie was Rashard Mendenhall, though I am assuming he came into the season with a very quiet injury. Mendenhall is looking to reverse the sophomore slump and come out of nowhere to surprise everyone in 2009.

Tim Hightower, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones are also looking to increase 2008's numbers but they didn't have a big enough impact 2008 to potentially slump in 2009.


In Conclusion...

Every running back has three options before the season starts—improve, decline, or stay the same.

There is a good chance that someone in the 2008 running back class will slump in 2009.  None of the top backs seem to be in serious risk of losing carries to another back, so if a slump does come I anticipate it being due to injuries or a more difficult schedule.

My...if I would rank the players in order of their potential to slump (greatest to least) it would be Forte, Smith, Johnson, Stewart, and Slaton.

If your second-year fantasy football stud does slump, there's always the class of 2009!