Confederations Cup Final: Slim Hope For US To Beat Brazil

The 2009 Confederations Cup has, as usual, been a roller coaster ride of triumph and despair.  Before the competition started, almost everyone would have expected to see Brazil make the final.  Very few would have expected the US to get there.

The US team has really improved and many people have underestimated its ability.  Of its last 15 serious international matches, it has won 11.  Even though most of the teams they played against in those matches are not considered to be top quality, it is still impressive form.

So far at the Confederations Cup, the United States has played four matches, winning two and losing two.  Brazil, on the other hand, remain the only team not to have suffered a loss.

The American tactical game has improved greatly, as demonstrated by their victories over Egypt and Spain. The goal scored against Italy came from a penalty, and they lost that match, but it must be considered that Ricardo Clark was red-carded well before the end of the first half and the result may have been much better if this had not happened.

But as encouraging as these signs are, we must now consider the opposition that they will face in their bid to win the tournament.

The Brazilian team has not recently been playing to the standard that most people have come to expect, but it still has an unblemished record at the Confederations Cup this year.  Only one team has managed to score against them (Egypt), and it has, as you may expect, scored more goals than any other team (11).

Their tournament goal average is 2.75 compared with only 1.50 for the Americans.  In their past 18 international matches, they have only lost once (to Paraguay by two goals in an away match).  In 12 of those matches they achieved a clean sheet result.

But uncharacteristically they scored fewer than two goals in seven of those matches, and had six draws (four of them scoreless).  Of course this must be offset by the fact that seven other matches were won by a margin of three or more goals.

Their overall ratio of Goals For and Against is 35:9 (from 18).  For comparison, the United States has a ratio of 31:14 (from 15), but keep in mind that the standard of competition in the CONMEBOL region is generally considered to be stronger than CONCACAF.

More specifically in the Confederations Cup the ratios are 11:3 compared to 6:6.  Three of the goals scored against the US were kicked by Brazilians.

The tactics employed by the US team in their victory over Spain are unlikely to work against Brazil.  The Americans will have to try something different because the Brazilians do not mind if you run at them, in fact they thrive on that.

The Brazilians are very accurate with their kicking and this enables them to set up long passes and force their opponents to chase, and of course their ability to convert corner kicks and score long range goals is legendary.

If anyone can stand up to them, Tim Howard is the man.  He has managed to keep a clean sheet in nine of the past 15 internationals (60 percent), and the only teams to have scored more than two goals against him in a single match are Brazil, Italy and Costa Rica.

Of course it is the fact that Brazil is one of those teams that managed to get the ball past him that is a major concern.  He has managed to stop most of the other teams he has played against, but he could not stop Brazil the other day.

Some small amount of encouragement can be drawn from the fact that Brazil did not show up well against South Africa in their semifinal clash, but history has shown that Brazil can run hot and cold, seeming to be in poor form one day and then bouncing back to their most devastating in the next match.

So, all things considered, the US only has a slim hope against Brazil, but this is better than none at all.  All that this team need is to hope Brazil can be caught on an off day, when they are running cold. Then, if the US can muster a good enough attack, they need to get the ball past Julio Cesar.

So far the team that has done the best job of doing just that is Egypt, so I expect Bob Bradley will try a similar style of play for his team.  We should see a lot of fast, aggressive passing combined with a concentrated effort to not allow the Brazilians an opportunity to relax and push the ball around as they would like to.

In the end, it probably will not be enough, but we have about 90 minutes to find out.  Don't miss it!

Prediction: Brazil will win again, but probably not by such a large margin this time.