Predicting Which Top Incoming Freshmen Will Go 1-and-Done After 2014-15 Season
College basketballโs incoming stars have been a bit more conservative about making the one-and-done jump to the NBA lately, with even John Calipari retaining some of his stud freshmen. Still, the top recruits of the 2014 class are all hoping theyโll explode onto the scene the way Jabari Parker did, with every fan and analyst assuming their first year in school will be their last.
One young standout with a chance to make that kind of splash is SMU point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. With his 6โ5โ frame and explosive scoring punch, Larry Brownโs prize recruit will have scouts (and hapless defenders) trailing after him all season long.
Read on for more on Mudiayโs likely decision, along with predictions for whether or not the rest of the nationโs elite frosh (per our latest rankings) will jump to the pros after 2014-15.
20. Malik Pope, San Diego State
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Malik Popeโs game starts with the kind of speed and leaping ability that will make NBA coaches sit up and take notice. He handles the ball and passes awfully well for a 6โ8โ incoming freshman, and his jump shot is far from being a liability.
However, heโs not ready to knock down perimeter shots at an NBA level, either, and he needs a lot of muscle on his 210-pound frame. Pope also has too much to learn from SDSU coach Steve Fisher (especially on D) to jump ship after one season.
Verdict: No
19. Dwayne Morgan, UNLV
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A combo forward with great athleticism, Dwayne Morgan is going to be a force as a defender for UNLV. His long arms and quickness make him an imposing shot-blocker even at 6โ7โ, and heโs also going to be one of the Mountain Westโs most impressive dunkers.
In the NBA, though, his size is going to make him a perimeter player, and his clunky jump shot isnโt even close to being ready for that challenge.
Heโs not a strong half-court offensive player in any respect, and itโs hard to imagine anyone advising him that heโll be ready for the pros within a year.
Verdict: No
18. Daniel Hamilton, UConn
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One of the biggest concerns about Daniel Hamilton is that he takes too many shots. Thatโs a statement that can be made about plenty of NBA players, too; many of whom also share Hamiltonโs penchant for hitting clutch jumpers in the teeth of the defense.
Hamilton is also a respectable passer, and he has NBA length as a 6โ6โ 2-guard.
Heโs a dark-horse prospect to go pro immediately, but the bet here is that the physicality of the college game will convince him to stay on campus until heโs built up his defense and his 180-pound body further.
Verdict: No
17. Chris McCullough, Syracuse
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If Chris McCullough does leave for the NBA after one year, itโll likely be Mitch McGary-style, with an NCAA suspension trailing behind him.
If, however, the forward who was booted from his Brewster Academy team last fall can keep his nose clean at Syracuse, the likelihood is that heโll stay there a little longer.
McCullough has talent in spades (especially as a shot-blocker at 6โ10โ), but his high school odyssey has left him short on polish and court sense.
Jim Boeheim can make him a lottery pick given the chance, but like former Orange rim-protector Fab Melo, he wonโt reach those heights by leaving too soon.
Verdict: No
16. Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall
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From a physicality standpoint, Isaiah Whitehead is among the few perimeter players in the class who could hold up against NBA guards.
His ability to get to the free-throw line would translate nicely to the pros. Heโs an adept passer, too, on those occasions when the defense overcommits to stop his drives.
However, at 6โ4โ, heโs also a potential liability on defense at the pro level, meaning the bar is set just a little higher for him to be ready to make the jump.
Unless his three-point shot is drastically better than expected next season, heโll need more than one year of college ball to prove that heโs reached that point.
Verdict: No
15. Theo Pinson, North Carolina
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More than pretty much any player on this list, Theo Pinsonโs NBA decision is likely to depend on how his team uses him.
The 6โ6โ swingman could be a star on a team of starsโa la the North Carolina Tar Heelsโ Antawn Jamison-Vince Carter squads of the late โ90sโor he could be shunted to the background by higher-scoring teammates.
Pinson has the potential to be UNCโs top defender on the perimeter as well as a first-rate rebounder. If he gets a real chance to show off his considerable scoring punch, heโll have enough going for him elsewhere to make the jump.
Verdict: Yes
14. Kevon Looney, UCLA
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Kevon Looney shares more than initials with former Bruins one-and-done Kevin Love. The 6โ8โ Looney is an attacking rebounder who plays with the same kind of limitless energy that Love showed in his lone season in Westwood.
Unfortunately for the younger forward, his offensive game isnโt much more mature than his predecessorโs was at this stage.
Given that heโs also two inches shorter and not quite as athletic as Love, itโs a good bet that heโll spend a little more time in college than the Timberwolves star did.
Verdict: No
13. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV
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UNLV coach Dave Rice hasnโt had much luck with hanging on to his star players.
Anthony Bennett spent one year in Vegas before becoming a No. 1 NBA draft pick. Meanwhile, of the Rebelsโ top players of 2013-14, Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith are off to the pros, and Bryce Dejean-Jones has transferred.
That track record doesnโt bode well for Riceโs chances of retaining explosive Rashad Vaughn, a 6โ6โ shooting guard with a terrific all-around game.
Vaughn is going to challenge for the Mountain West scoring title next season, and while he could use more work on such fundamentals as moving without the ball, itโs unlikely heโll stay in school long enough to get it.
Verdict: Yes
12. DโAngelo Russell, Ohio State
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Plenty of top high-school backcourt players wind up in the โcombo guardโ category because theyโre too good to limit to either the point or shooting guard roles.
From an NBA perspective, though, that designation is more often seen as applying to a player who isnโt good enough at either job to hold up at the pro level.
So it will likely be with DโAngelo Russell, a versatile 6โ4โ ball-handler who might well lead Ohio State in scoring as a freshman.
His size and passing ability have him targeted for a PG spot in the pros, but with Shannon Scott holding that role in Columbus next season, Russell will need to stick around longer to establish his own floor-leader chops.
Verdict: No
11. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
10 of 20
Whatever Karl-Anthony Townsโ own inclination had been, he likely had his NBA decision made for him in April.
With both Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson back in Lexington next year, there isnโt going to be enough playing time for Towns to make himself a viable draft candidate.
Indeed, Towns will likely find himself in a similar role to Marcus Leeโs niche in 2013-14, filling in as a shot-blocker when injuries or fouls limit one of the top centers.
Considering that Lee himself will also be back, Townsโeven with his enviable three-point shooting abilityโwill spend a lot of time on the bench next season.
Verdict: No
10. Justise Winslow, Duke
11 of 20
Eventually, Justise Winslow is going to become a worthy member of Dukeโs NBA lineage of defensive stoppers at the small forward spot (Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Luol Dengโฆ). In all probability, though, thatโs going to happen later rather than sooner.
As mature a game as Winslow has on D, heโs not at the same level as a scorer yet, particularly when it comes to his three-point shot.
Considering that heโs also on the small side for a pro SF (6โ6โ), heโs more likely to follow in Battierโs four-year footsteps rather than emulating Dengโs one-and-done example.
Verdict: No
9. Justin Jackson, North Carolina
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Justin Jackson certainly canโt complain about lack of opportunity to succeed as a freshman. Heโs joining a team with an elite point guard (rising junior Marcus Paige, in his third year as a starter) that just lost its top two frontcourt scorers to the NBA.
Jackson, a 6โ7โ SF, will put up points in bunches in that environment, on fast breaks and three-pointers and anything else he gets a decent look at.
Heโs not an impact defender, and heโs awfully skinny at 185 pounds, but heโs primed for such a strong freshman campaign that his weaknesses should be overshadowed.
Verdict: Yes
8. Stanley Johnson, Arizona
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Stanley Johnsonโs biggest weakness is his perimeter shot, which is so far from being NBA-ready that it canโt possibly be fixed in the space of one season in Tucson. That said, he may not need to fix it to earn himself an impressive spot in the draft.
The 6โ6โ, 225-pound Johnson is a world-class defender and rebounder who embraces physical play. Unless his Wildcats stumble in their projected Final Four run, look for him to find a home with some NBA team searching for the next Kawhi Leonard in the first round.
Verdict: Yes
7. Kelly Oubre, Kansas
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There isnโt a wing player in the freshman class with a more complete game than Kelly Oubre.
The heir apparent to another do-it-all small forward, presumptive lottery pick Andrew Wiggins, Oubre is a terrific defender and a versatile scorer whoโs equally dangerous at the rim or the three-point arc.
Unlike his predecessor, though, Oubre doesnโt have athleticism that screams โtop-five pick,โ and his 6โ7โ, 210-pound frame could use some extra muscle.
He might be able to override those concerns in just one year in Lawrence, but the odds are against it.
Verdict: No
6. Trey Lyles, Kentucky
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Stepping into the shoes of one-and-done Julius Randle, Trey Lyles will certainly have every chance to enjoy a similar star turn. At 6โ10โ and 255 pounds, Lyles is even bigger than the rebounding machine heโs replacing, and heโs got power to suit his build.
More importantly, Lyles is a decidedly more polished offensive player than Randle was coming into Lexington, meaning that heโs unlikely to see his scoring average plummet in conference play.
With second-year PG Andrew Harrison to set him up, thereโs no reason to believe the Wildcatsโ PF wonโt continue the teamโs stranglehold on SEC Freshman of the Year honors.
Verdict: Yes
5. Emmanuel Mudiay, SMU
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The timing of Emmanuel Mudiayโs arrival at SMU will probably have a major influence on the duration of his stay there. Having seen what happened to Marcus Smart at Oklahoma State, Mudiay is likely to make sure he doesnโt repeat Smartโs mistakes.
Standing 6โ5โ and featuring a high-scoring, physical style, the Mustangsโ new star has a lot in common with the Cowboysโ old one on the court.
Where Smart dominated as a freshman but hurt his draft stock by staying for a second season, expect Mudiay to enjoy similar early success and then take the money and run.
Verdict: Yes
4. Tyus Jones, Duke
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Point guards tend to be the least likely candidates for one-and-done college careers, both because theyโre usually the smallest guys on the floor and because leadership doesnโt often make a good highlight reel.
Tyus Jones has a great chance to lead Duke to a national championship next season, but even that may not send him straight to the pros.
The 6โ1โ Jones has very quick hands, but heโs not an attention-grabbing athlete otherwise.
Heโs a phenomenal passer and floor general but not a dominant scorer or a spectacular dribbler, and that combination will probably keep him on campus until he's erased any doubts about how much he can contribute.
Verdict: No
3. Cliff Alexander, Kansas
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The most obvious NBA comparison for Cliff Alexander is Blake Griffin, another hard-dunking, shot-swatting power forward from the Big 12.
In that context, itโs worth noting that even Blake Griffin didnโt become Blake Griffin right away, spending two seasons at Oklahoma before heading to the pros.
Similarly, Alexanderโwhose jump shot still needs a fair amount of polishingโwill probably stay at Kansas even after what promises to be an impressive debut season.
If heโd had Naadir Tharpe running the offense, the pick here would have been one-and-done, but without a proven point guard, heโll lose just enough luster to stick around for a second year.
Verdict: No
2. Myles Turner, Texas
19 of 20
Even when they clearly arenโt readyโsee Austin, Isaiahโ7-footers will frequently jump to the NBA because theyโre so often drafted for potential as much as performance.
Myles Turner wonโt have to worry about that distinction, because thereโs every reason to expect him to excel as a freshman for the Texas Longhorns.
Turner is both a hard-working defender and an impressive jump shooter at 7โ0โ, 240 pounds.
His outside game hasnโt developed at the expense of his low-post presence, and Texasโ experienced lineup will make sure he has the best possible opportunity to pile up double-doubles.
Verdict: Yes
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke
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On the whole, the NBA has been deemphasizing centers in Jahlil Okaforโs mold, monolithic but comparatively slow back-to-the basket players.
On the other hand, Dwight Howard just made his eighth All-Star appearance, and thereโs room for more than one exception to the trend.
Okafor, at 6โ10โ and 265 pounds, is more mobile than the injury-slowed Howard with a similar body type.
He doesnโt have the explosiveness that the Rockets center once didโneither does Howard himself, of courseโbut his lone season at Duke will prove that heโs an overpowering post scorer and a good enough rebounder to bang with NBA bigs.
Verdict: Yes
