MLB Trade Rumors: Top 5 Cracks to Fill
The MLB trade rumor mill is gaining momentum as the regular season progresses through its second month. Under-performing players, as well as the ravenous injury bug, have impacted on several contending teams. The scratching of wounded players such as Ivan Nova, Jose Iglesias and Bobby Parnell for the remainder of the year will mobilize their teams into searching for suitable replacements.
In addition to the scourge of injuries, another reality of baseball is the annual batch of slow starters. Trawling through the stats of most clubs will reveal many pitchers with a ballooned ERA, and hitters who have yet to breach the Mendoza line (.200 average).
Some will eventually find their pitch command or hitting groove in the coming months. However, until this happens, the anxiety levels of their teams and fans will continue to rise.
In the absence, both literally and figuratively, of their star players many front offices will begin considering replacements from inside and from outside of their organization. Promoting bench players and dipping into the farm system are two solutions to the problem.
But this invariably involves using players who are untried or unproven at the major league level. Sometimes these understudies succeed, but more frequently they struggle to fill some very large boots.
Two prime examples of this occurred to the Yankees and Phillies in 2013. In the absence of Derek Jeter, Yankees replacement shortstops (such as Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix) combined for only a .231 average, eight home runs and 64 RBI. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Jeter’s average season since 1996 has a much more substantial .312 average with 16 home runs and 78 RBI.
A significant drop-off in production also occurred in Philly after the season-ending injury to Ryan Howard. Kevin Frandsen, who got the majority of the starts, only managed one homer per 50 at-bats last year. This is dwarfed by Howard’s career output of one homer per 14 at-bats.
The alternative option for needy teams is to scour the baseball landscape and find players via the trade route. The benefit of trading for new blood is the acquisition of an experienced major league veteran who can maintain or improve production at a particular position.
One such instance was the Yankees’ acquisition of outfielder/DH Alfonso Soriano last season. His arrival gave the team an enormous lift and nearly propelled them into the playoffs.
In the early days of the new season only a modicum of trades has occurred so far. The shipping of surplus-to-needs first baseman Ike Davis to Pittsburgh by the Mets is probably the most prominent to date.
As the season stretches on, the compulsion to make roster changes for teams lagging behind in the standings will become inevitable. Interest amongst the baseball public will also increase as speculation builds about which player is going where.
Expect the win-now mentality of blue-chip teams, such as the Yankees and Dodgers, to urge them into high trade activity at some point. As for the short and middle term, the pages ahead will pinpoint the top five cracks that have emerged so far and speculate on their likely fillers.
Unless otherwise specified, all statistics were supplied from mlb.com.
5. New York Mets: Closer
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Despite being thirteenth in the National League in hitting (.228), and twelfth in team-ERA (4.01), the Mets have still managed to stay in the National League East division race. Leaving the gates at 16-16, they currently sit only two games behind Atlanta.
One notable void which has cost them more victories is the lack of an established closer. Bobby Parnell was originally slated to lock down the ninth inning this year, but early elbow troubles ended his season prematurely via Tommy John surgery.
Veterans Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth have both had their chances to nail down the closer role. The former blew early two saves and has looked more like the shaky Valverde of 2012-13 (4.18 ERA, 83% saves) than the perfect-papa of 2011 (49-of-49 saves). After a solid start (2-of-2 saves), Farnsworth has also been hit hard in recent outings. Getting tagged for two quick losses will have dented any confidence the Mets organization had in him being the full-time closer.
If the Mets wish to remain in contention they will have to find an alternative to their current bullpen setup. A couple of options on the trade front could be Huston Street or Addison Reed. Street has begun the season in scintillating style. He has converted all of his 10 save opportunities for San Diego while posting a 0.64 ERA. Reed is 9-of-10 saves with Arizona, having struck out more than a batter per inning.
Both of these stoppers ply their trade on non-contending teams. If the Mets keep winning and are willing to dangle the trade carrot with their prospects, there is the possibility of some player movement in the weeks to come.
4. Atlanta Braves: Second Base
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In the tightest division in baseball, the Atlanta Braves are fancied to emerge victorious in the NL East. The loss of two starting pitchers for the season will put the onus on scoring more runs and tightening up the defense. They are getting precious little production so far from second base. This position remains a black hole for the current division leaders who may be looking at other options.
Dan Uggla’s stark decline in productivity over the past few years may soon prod Atlanta into seeking his successor. The 34-year-old veteran was once one of the most potent offensive second baseman in baseball. In a five year span (2007-2011) he launched 30 or more home runs in each season. His glove was also a steady presence on the right side of the diamond for both the Marlins and Braves.
The past three seasons has seen his output take a massive dip. The power numbers began dropping in 2012 with 17 less homers (19) than 2011 (36). With Atlanta’s hopes pinned on a comeback last season, Uggla went further downhill. A batting average of .179 was dead-last amongst players who had 400 or more at-bats. In fact, he was 29 points behind the next lowest player, Darwin Barney.
With Uggla’s fall seemingly reaching its nadir last year, he has somehow managed to sink into an even deeper abyss so far in 2014. His timid slash line .184/.241/.272 reveals a slugging percentage that has nearly halved since its peak in 2008 (.514).
Additionally, his defence has suffered as well. In just over one month, his seven errors are already half the number he committed last season. Some have been costly too, including one that recently led to a Mets rally and defeat for his team.
It is difficult to see Atlanta persisting with Uggla for much longer. His lucrative contract (five years, $62m) expires at the end of next season. However, the club are likely to absorb it and move on given his worsening playing standards.
A potential trade candidate for the Braves is Georgia native, Gordon Beckham. Marcus Semien’s recent emergence for the White Sox may tempt them into promoting the youngster to a regular starter. This would enable them to ship out the expensive Beckham.
Now in his sixth season in the majors, the ex-Bulldog has shown flashes of the talent he displayed during his college career. However, injuries and adapting to big league pitching have resulted in only mediocre output since his 2009 debut.
At 27, Beckham is still young enough to fulfil the immense promise that led to Chicago picking him eighth overall in the 2008 draft. A return to his home state may be the perfect fit for him, and for the Braves.
3. San Francisco Giants: Second Base
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Back in 2012, Marco Scutaro was instrumental in the Giants winning their second World Series championship in three years. Acquired in a late July trade, he hit .328 with eight RBI during the postseason, as well as playing an impeccable second base.
This season he was being counted on to have another productive year in their infield. Unfortunately, the 38-year-old veteran has been on the shelf since before the regular season began. A lower back strain landed him on the disabled list in March with still no timetable on his return.
Brandon Hicks has filled Scutaro’s shoes at second base so far season. Given his opportunity, the journeyman Texan has done a respectable job, hitting .208 with five homers and 11 RBI through his first 77 at-bats.
This offense has given San Francisco a nice boost, but questions still linger over his ability to sustain these numbers over a full season. Coming into 2014, Hicks had only hit .133 in two previous MLB stints.
With slow healing being the reality of a veteran ballplayer, San Francisco may need to cover Scutaro at second base over a prolonged period. As mentioned, Gordon Beckham has become expendable in Chicago and could be a trade option.
Also, Rickie Weeks could find himself on the market after slipping to second on the second base depth chart in Milwaukee. With 140 career home runs and a lifetime .346 OBP, he could be a valuable addition to the Giants' infield.
It is expected to be a dogfight all season long in the NL West. Los Angeles, Colorado and the Giants will be an intriguing three-horse race. Only the strong will survive over the long haul. If second base remains a weak point, then look for the Giants to make a move.
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2. New York Yankees: Starting Pitcher
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After missing the playoffs last season, Yankees fans are impatient for a return to the postseason in 2014. With a lofty payroll and much talent at their disposal, expectations are always high in New York.
The season-ending elbow injury sustained by starting pitcher, Ivan Nova, is the most talked about so far in 2014. Tommy John surgery will now confine the Dominican to the dugout for the next twelve months.
Nova appeared to be a banker for innings and winnings in 2014. Emerging from a season-and-a-half slump during the second half of 2013, he was beginning to look like the formidable dealer of his 2011 rookie season (16-4, 3.70 ERA).
Manager Joe Girardi has so far summoned internal cover to plug the Nova void. However, the prevailing sense is that team general manager Brian Cashman will soon get an itchy trigger finger and acquire an arm externally. Two consecutive ineffective outings from Vidal Nuno, as well as an unhealthy Michael Pineda, will only add to his temptations.
Buster Olney commented on The Michael Kay Show last week that the struggling Cubs may be amenable to parting ways with their number 1 starter: "You can call the Cubs today and talk to them about Jeff Samardzija. If you made the right offer, they would move him.”
Chicago would expect plenty in return for the 6'5" right-hander, who is second in the majors with a 1.62 ERA through seven starts this season. Do the Yankees have the prospects to tempt them? If not, they probably have the cash.
1. Detroit Tigers: Shortstop
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Many people are favoring Detroit to take the extra step to glory in 2014. The championship has eluded them in recent years, despite three consecutive appearances in the ALCS. A preseason injury at shortstop may prompt them to seek a newcomer before too long.
After being acquired from the Red Sox last season, Jose Iglesias quickly endeared himself to the Motor City. His soft hands, graceful footwork and natural flair had people convinced that he was their shortstop of the future.
However, it appears that the Cuban’s adolescent physique was unready to withstand the rigors of the long baseball season. Stress fractures to both legs reveal a body that has been overused. Given conditioning and natural maturation he will most likely become a durable full-time player. But with his cleats strung up for the rest of 2014, the Tigers will have to wait a while for his talents to bear fruit.
The absence of Iglesias leaves a significant void in Detroit’s infield. So far they have deployed the now-departed Alex Gonzalez, as well as Andrew Romine and Danny Worth at shortstop. The latter two have yo-yoed from major leagues to minor leagues throughout their careers and neither is likely to be the answer to the team’s conundrum.
With team owner, Mike Ilitch, showing a willingness to loosen the purse strings over recent years (e.g. $214 million for Prince Fielder, $180 million for Justin Verlander), expect Detroit to soon look elsewhere.
Stephen Drew remains unsigned after departing the Red Sox via free agency. A one-year deal worth $12-15 million should be well within Detroit’s budget. Drew's left-handed batting would be a perfect fit in Detroit whose batting lineup is heavy with right-handers.
He is an above-average fielder with postseason experience to boot. This short-term acquisition of Drew would also enable the seamless return of a healthy Iglesias in 2015.
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