Kentucky Derby 2014 Post Positions: Predictions for Each Horse in the Lineup
Following a long season of notable races with a handful of horses taking the top prizes, the top colts in the world will now take the stage on Saturday night for the 2014 Kentucky Derby.
Many of those geldings come in with startling records, while others have made their mark late in the season leading up to the Run for the Roses. For a horse like California Chrome, his unblemished record will be tested out of post No. 5 against top competition.
Much like draws in any other sport, the results can dictate who the eventual favorites are in the field. While the posts tend to change the odds for the race somewhat, many of the strongest geldings remained at the top of the crop.
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In preparation for the race on Saturday, here is a look at the full post positions along with a breakdown of the entire field.
Kentucky Derby Race Information
When: Saturday, May 3, 2014
Post Time: 6:24 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports LiveExtra
| 1 | Vicar's In Trouble | 30-1 |
| 2 | Harry's Holiday | 50-1 |
| 3 | Uncle Sigh | 30-1 |
| 4 | Danza | 10-1 |
| 5 | California Chrome | 5-2 |
| 6 | Samraat | 15-1 |
| 7 | We Miss Artie | 50-1 |
| 8 | General A Rod | 15-1 |
| 9 | Vinceremos | 30-1 |
| 10 | Wildcat Red | 15-1 |
| 11 | Hoppertunity | 6-1 |
| 12 | Dance With Fate | 20-1 |
| 13 | Chitu | 20-1 |
| 14 | Medal Count | 20-1 |
| 15 | Tapiture | 15-1 |
| 16 | Intense Holiday | 12-1 |
| 17 | Commanding Curve | 50-1 |
| 18 | Candy Boy | 20-1 |
| 19 | Ride On Curlin | 15-1 |
| 20 | Wicked Strong | 8-1 |
1. Vicar's In Trouble
Vicar is indeed in trouble. While the No. 1 gate has produced the second most winners with eight in the history of the race, no gelding has won since 1986 out of the bottom gate.
Despite having a poor draw, trainer Mike Maker still has confidence in his horse, per Darren Rogers of KentuckyDerby.com:
"I know we didn't have much choice, but I don't have to walk too far to saddle the horses, and maybe our riders will be friendly and give each other enough space. Hopefully, we get a good break out of Vicar like we usually do, and we get a good position pretty early."
With a resilient jockey in Rosie Napravnik, who's looking to become the first female jockey to win the illustrious race, Vicar's In Trouble will be one to watch but likely not to win.
2. Harry's Holiday
Another good horse with a tough draw, Harry's Holiday is an extreme underdog in the race with an eye on ending up somewhere near the middle of the pack. As a 50-1 horse coming in, Harry's Holiday doesn't look like a colt to take it all.
3. Uncle Sigh
In an ironic play on the name from the Duck Dynasty character, Uncle Sigh's odds might just inspire some sighs out of the No. 3 post. At 30-1 odds, this fast horse could shock some fans, but won't have enough gusto to finish any higher than near the middle of the pack.
4. Danza
Now we're getting to the horses with a great shot to win the Run for the Roses. Danza comes in at 10-1 with an inside post. But with him being just beside favorite California Chrome, Danza looks like a strong candidate to take the Triple Crown event.
Not only that, but he's also named after a famous actor in Tony Danza, who will be in attendance to watch him race, per Marissa Payne of The Wall Street Journal:
"Danza was named for the actor Tony Danza, who is not involved with the horse’s owners, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. “He is not,” confirmed president Aron Wellman. “But that would be cool.”
The “Danza” name came up in Eclipse’s company-wide brainstorm session. Danza’s sire is the stallion Street Boss. So one employee submitted Danza as a reference to the actor who starred in the sitcom “Who’s the Boss,” which ran from 1984 to 1992. “We thought it would be clever,” said Wellman.
"
Who's the Boss? Danza's the boss, and he might just upset California Chrome and the rest of the field on Saturday evening.
5. California Chrome
Not much needs to be said about this horse, except for the fact that he's easily the most dominant horse in the running.
Jockey Victor Espinoza previously won the 2002 Kentucky Derby. He did so out of the No. 5 post. If history truly is to repeat itself, this 5-2 favorite might make a run at the Triple Crown as well.
6. Samraat
Five career wins in six starts shows that Samraat has the pedigree to win any notable race. But following a loss in the Wood Memorial against Wicked Strong, the gelding was all but forgotten.
Trainer Rick Violette Jr. believes his horse will make everyone forget about that one second-place finish, per Alicia Wincze Hughes of Kentucky.com:
"He's run six times and one horse has beaten him. I'll take that anywhere. Even that race (the Wood) he went through a couple inter-race schooling victories. He had never been surrounded before ... that was the first time he had horses in front of him and behind him and beside him and he handled that well.
He's literally done everything we've asked, sometimes things just work out. We got lucky enough after he broke his maiden to get an allowance race to go at 71/2 furlongs and then he gets his first two-turn experience in a couple of the open races. Everything kind of has worked out from Day One.
"
7. We Miss Artie
We all miss Artie, but we're not really sure about the horse. At 50-1, We Miss Artie comes in with the odds stacked against him, but he did get a favorable draw. Don't expect We Miss Artie to be near the front but a potentially strong run at the open next to Samraat and California Chrome.
8. General A Rod
No, General A Rod was not named after an infamous New York Yankees player, but rather his previous owner, J. Armando Rodriguez. After being sold off to a new ownership group, General A Rod has ran well but not well enough to compete with the big dogs, er, horses.
9. Vinceremos
This colt's name means, "to conquer or overcome," in Latin, per Linda B. Blackford of Kentucky.com. Unfortunately, with 30-1 odds and a ridiculously deep field, Vinceremos might be looking to conquer the middle of the pack out of the gate.
10. Wildcat Red
Oh, one of the most favorable posts in the entire race goes to a horse with 15-1 odds to take it all. Wildcat Red might not get the publicity of a horse like California Chrome or Wicked Strong, but he's certainly got what it takes to surprise the rest of the field.
Lining up in the middle alongside Hoppertunity, a speedy horse that sits just behind California Chrome in the odds, Wildcat Red might be able to run alongside the colt to run up near the front.
11. Hoppertunity
At 6-1, Hoppertunity looked like a strong contender to pull off the epic upset following a favorable draw. But a late injury means the strong horse won't be able to steal the show from California Chrome, per Esther Marr of The Blood-Horse magazine:
While the colt should be able to run at the Preakness and compete for the next two races, the injury derails any chances of claiming the roses this weekend.
12. Dance With Fate
Following several strong races, Dance With Fate comes into the Kentucky Derby with hopes of winning the pinnacle of the horse racing world. But at 20-1 odds, the only hope for this gelding is to keep pace with Hoppertunity and others late in the race to finish near or inside the top three.
13. Chitu
With a favorable draw and a sense of hope coming out of the No. 13 post, Chitu might just run near the middle of the field with a chance of edging out a colt for a top three finish.
TVG points out that the 13 post just might be a lucky one for Chitu during the draw:
Thanks to having the win under his belt and another runner-up, Chitu has a shot to pull off the unthinkable. But after losing his lucky right front shoe leading up to the Derby, the 20-1 odds look a lot less favorable for the colt.
14. Medal Count
The third consecutive horse with 20-1 odds in the field, Medal Count carries the same aspirations as Dance With Fate and Chitu. But with his gate just slightly further outside, Medal Count will have a tough hill to climb to reach the top on Saturday.
15. Tapiture
A strong horse who has shown front-running abilities at times, Tapiture might just have what it takes to keep the field close if he starts off strong from the outside gate. Unfortunately, one of his biggest challenges might be holding off Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong from closing in on the right.
16. Intense Holiday
Man, those 12-1 odds sure look enticing. Those favorable odds put Intense Holiday as the fifth best horse in the running, just behind Danza at fourth.
Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation believes the horse is one of the six favorites that could come away with the win:
With a strong pedigree and a great recent run at the Louisiana Derby, Intense Holiday might have a shot at sitting near the top three. But with the loss coming to Vicar's In Trouble, Intense Holiday might also be in trouble if he can't get past the horse out of the No. 1 post again.
17. Commanding Curve
We're not really sure if he has command of the curveball or if he can curve his way through the field, but Commanding Curve doesn't look like he has command over the field. Coming in with 50-1 odds, this colt will be lucky to remain around the middle.
18. Candy Boy
With a win in the Robert B. Lewis and a third-place result in the Santa Anita Derby, Candy Boy has the pedigree to run up near the front. But without a good post draw, the 20-1 colt will have tough sledding to be a front runner yet again.
19. Ride On Curlin
The 15-1 odds for Ride On Curlin shows that he's a strong gelding, but with a favorite by his side in Wicked Strong, the draw seems like a tough one. This bargain horse hasn't won a race in the last five runnings, but he has been in the top three in each of the last four.
20. Wicked Strong
Do you believe in underdogs? Well, Wicked Strong is your horse.
The gallant colt represents the Boston Strong effort and was named in honor of the victims in the Boston Marathon bombing. But Rick Snider of the Washington Post Express believes the No. 20 post ruined any chances for the strong gelding:
Much like the Boston Red Sox who went from last to first to win the 2013 World Series, Wicked Strong has a glimmer of hope coming from the outside. But even after taking the Wood Memorial and plenty of momentum, the 8-1 odds seem more like wishful thinking for the Boston horse.
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