Kentucky Derby 2014 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw

All that's left to do is to run the race. 

With the Kentucky's Derby's post positions set on Wednesday and the morning-line odds released, we now have a few days to analyze every last aspect of the horses, the track, the potential runs and strategies the jockeys will take and the ideal mint julep recipe. 

In other words, Derby week has truly begun. Let's take a look at the draw and break down some of the intriguing aspects of this year's post positions.

Post Positions

Post	Horse	Owner(s)	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
1	Vicars in Trouble	Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey	Mike Maker	Rosie Napravnik	20-1
2	Harry's Holiday	Skychai Racing LLC, Sand Dollar Stable, LLC, Terry Raymond & Jana Wagner	Mike Maker	Corey Lanerie	50-1
3	Uncle Sigh	Wounded Warrior Stables & Anthony C. Robertson	Gary Contessa	Irad Ortiz Jr.	30-1
4	Danza	Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners	Todd Pletcher	Joe Bravo	10-1
5	California Chrome	Steve and Carolyn Coburn & Perry and Denise Martin	Art Sherman	Victor Espinoza	5-2
6	Samraat	My Meadowview Farm	Rick Violette Jr.	Jose Ortiz	15-1
7	We Miss Artie	Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	50-1
8	General A Rod	Starlight Racing & Skychai Racing, LLC	Mike Maker	Joel Rosario	15-1
9	Vinceremos	WinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing	Todd Pletcher	Joe Rococo Jr.	30-1
10	Wildcat Red	Honors Stable Corp.	Jose Garoffalo	Luis Saez	15-1
11	Hoppertunity	Karl Watson, Mike Pegram & Paul Weitman	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	6-1
12	Dance With Fate	S. Alesia, Bran Jam Stable & Ciaglia Racing, LLC	Peter Eurton	Corey Nakatani	20-1
13	Chitu	Tanma Corporation	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	20-1
14	Medal Count	Spendthrift Farm	Dale Romans	Robby Albarado	20-1
15	Tapiture	Winchell Thoroughbreds	Steve Asmussen	Ricardo Santana Jr.	15-1
16	Intense Holiday	Starlight Racing	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	12-1
17	Commanding Curve	West Point Thoroughbreds	Dallas Stewart	Shaun Bridgmohan	50-1
18	Candy Boy	C R K Stable LLC	John Sadler	Gary Stevens	20-1
19	Ride On Curlin	Daniel J. Dougherty	William G. Gowan	Calvin Borel	15-1
20	Wicked Strong	Centennial Farms	James A. Jerkens	Rajiv Maragh	8-1

Analysis

Rob Carr/Getty Images

California Chrome's connections likely would have liked to see the horse draw a little more to the inside, but the race favorite still has a solid starting position (remember, Chrome started at the No. 5 post in the Santa Anita Derby).

The one concern for Chrome will be that both Samraat and Danza can really get out and run early, so the possibility of getting squeezed and trapped inside of the pack is a concern. But if California Chrome gets out to a strong start, it shouldn't really be an issue. 

Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports isn't terribly concerned for Chrome:

One of the horses to really benefit from the draw was Danza, who will come in at 10-1 odds after landing the No. 4 post. Danza has great early speed and will have the opportunity to clear the field from the inside. As Forde notes, there's some historical significance to the position as well:

Danza is going to be a popular pick with bettors, one would imagine, given a strong starting place and his victory at the Arkansas Derby.

The other horse in the California Chrome sandwich, Samraat, probably didn't get quite the draw that would have most benefited the horse. As Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated pointed out, however, his owner was looking on the bright side:

Hoppertunity comes into the race with the second-best odds (6-1) and has an excellent starting position on the No. 11 post. Intense Holiday is also going to become a very popular horse on the No. 16 post. 

One horse that could see its odds become more favorable closer to the race, however, is Wicked Strong. Despite morning line odds of 8-1, the horse drew the No. 20 post, meaning he'll have a long run to settle into the main group in this race.

Wicked Strong has an excellent final kick, but he's not a deep closer. He needs to be able to remain four or five lengths off the leaders to really make his move late, so he's going to have to break off the start perhaps a little faster than jockey Rajiv Maragh would prefer. 

Don't be surprised if his odds are more favorable by the morning of the race as folks steer clear.

While that's the general round-up of the current favorites, which dark horse is worth monitoring?

Candy Boy is intriguing. He'll start on the No. 18 post and is the sort of deep stalker that doesn't need to rush to join the pack closer to the rail. The fact that he won't get bogged down early in the pack but can rather run his race is appealing.

And so is the fact that Gary Stevens will be riding him, a three-time winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Predictions

Rob Carr/Getty Images

1. California Chrome

2. Intense Holiday

3. Danza