Kentucky Derby Contenders: California Chrome Early Leader, Top Betting Pick

With just two weeks to go before the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby, the field for the race is taking shape, and there is no doubt who the betting favorite is going to be.

Of the 24 Kentucky Derby points races run this year, there have been only three multiple winners—California Chrome, Vicar’s in Trouble and Samraat.

California Chrome has distanced himself as the leader of the three-year-old division by winning the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). His early betting price has gone from 60-1 back in February down to 2-1 this week in Kentucky Derby future odds according to Odds Shark, who has been tracking odds of Derby hopefuls since last year.

Let’s take an early look at the major Derby contenders:

California Chrome 2-1

Uncredited

Trained by 77-year-old Art Sherman, the colt has won four races in a row by a combined 24 lengths, and his last pair of Beyer Speed Figures (subscription required) are tops in the field. The colt has plenty of early speed and drew off in his last two starts at Santa Anita as if getting the extra ground in the Kentucky Derby is not going to pose a problem.

The colt is looking to become the first California-bred to win the Run for the Roses in over 50 years.  The last Cal-bred to win the race was Decidedly in 1962.

There are not too many knocks on this colt other than the fact he is going to be a short price on Derby Day. The colt was the leader in the 2014 Kentucky Derby Points Standings with 150.

Wicked Strong 8-1

David Alcosser

Wicked Strong showed some promise as a juvenile with a close-up third-place finish in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct last fall but did not fire his best in his first two starts this year. The colt was beaten by 15 3/4 lengths in the Holy Bull (G2) and then ran fourth in a tough first-level-optional claiming race.

Trainer Jimmy Jerkens elected to try him against top company again in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, and the return to that surface paid dividends. The colt rallied from off the pace to roll by the field and pull off the upset in the Wood, paying $20.40.

He went from off the Derby radar down to betting odds of 8-1, according to Odds Shark, in just less than two minutes.

Danza 8-1

Danny Johnston

Trainer Todd Pletcher has only won the Kentucky Derby once—with Super Saver in 2010, but each spring his barn is loaded with talented three-year-olds. Despite a third-place finish in the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer, Danza was far down the depth chart in his stable.

That changed in a big way at Oaklawn Park on April 12 as the colt pulled off a huge upset in the Arkansas Derby (G1), coming up the inside and drawing away to win by 4 3/4 lengths, returning $84.60 for a $2 wager.

Derby future bettors were impressed, dropping his odds to 8-1 this week.

Vicar’s in Trouble 10-1

Alexander Barkoff

Vicar’s in Trouble started his 2014 campaign with a sharp win in the Lecomte (G3) but was a disappointing third in the Risen Star (G2) where the colt sat off the pace for the first time and made a mild late run.

Next up came the Louisiana Derby (G2), and the colt bounced back thanks to a good ride from jockey Rosie Napravnik, who jumped out to the early lead and was able to steal the race on the front, taking the field gate to wire.

The colt was listed at 20-1 in Derby future wagering back in February, but his price has steadily fallen over the past two months, currently listed at 10-1 at Odds Shark.

Hoppertunity 14-1

Danny Johnston

Trained by Bob Baffert, who has trained three Derby winners, this colt shipped to Oaklawn Park to win the Rebel (G2) back in March after coming up short in a fourth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, which was his first start against winners.

Baffert elected to keep the colt in Southern California for the Santa Anita Derby instead of shipping him back to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. That did not work out perfectly as he was no match for California Chrome, but he did run a solid second which should set him up for a top performance on Derby Day.

The colt’s price has dropped slightly from 16-1 last month down to 14-1 after his last outing. The colt did not make his career debut until Jan. 4, and no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882.