A Wet and Soggy U.S. Open Will Hurt Tiger's Chances

Its soggy at Bethpage. Again. And this U.S. Open may go for an extra day. Again. But for a slightly messier reason. What does that mean for the favorites?

Great players, like last year's champ Tiger, tend to get into rhythms and nasty weather messed those up, meaning scores can drop fast and be very uneven. Just look at Tiger's scorecard on Monday.

I don't want to read too much into less than a half round, but Tiger looks very distracted by the weather. The UK's Tiger Woods loses his way in rain">Telegraph said, his driver made him "a loose cannon, a public menace, a danger to wildlife." A bit extreme, but not that far off.

Lets not forget that this is a tough course and Tiger has won here before. In 2002, Tiger won at Bethpage by being the least bad. He was the only one under par and had a pretty comfortable three shot lead over Phil.

But the rain has already cut today's round in two, and while tomorrow's forecast looks a little better, Saturday looks like a disaster and Sunday is probably 50/50.

The amount of golf played tomorrow could really determine who is in a position to win this thing on Monday. Circumstances seem to point to a different major champion than what we have seen in the past year. 

Think of it like this, the premier threesome of Tiger, Harrington, and Angel Cabrera, winners of the last four majors, all got their first round cut in half. Half the field, including Phil Mickelson, didn't even get on the course. Who gets the advantage? I'd go with the players who get to play the most holes in the best conditions.

If Friday does indeed turn out to be the best day to play, those who get their first swings of the Open in tomorrow will have an advantage. Now Tiger only got six holes in, and no one got in more than eleven. And, Thursday's scores weren't great but probably could have been worse.

The bottom line is that those who played any at all on Thursday are at a disadvantage. A wet course tends to be an equalizer. Strong winds might make guys reluctant to use the driver so this long course feels even longer. The Black course isn't the greatest drainer either, meaning there will be nasty spots everywhere, even on fairways and greens.

And if Tiger's driving style on Thursday continues, he'll have to do it with the flat stick. And that wasn't great on Thursday either. 

I wish I could say that tough conditions favor the best players with the most experience, but with each gust of wind luck becomes a factor.

Maybe the weather will straighten up and this thing will become a little more routine. If it doesn't, expect an underdog, maybe a wily veteran, to be in a competitive spot come the final round.

Maybe Rocco will get a shot at Monday revenge?