FOTA and The Dream Of a Breakaway Series: The Uphill Battle

It looks as though F1 might just turn out to be closer to what the FIA and Mr Mosley expected as the deadline for unconditional entries is looming and FOTA seems desperate to find a quick solution. While a breakaway series is still not out of the question it is necessary to understand why FOTA would have had a very hard time creating a successful series.

There are two major issues that FOTA had to evaluate when deciding to break away from F1.

The first one is the control of revenues. The FOTA teams argue that Bernie is taking a huge cut on the revenues of F1, yet they are the once fielding teams. While this may be a very valid argument, it is also easily defeated if one looks at it from a point of view that analyzes how the sport evolved to be what it is today.

Then we'll see that teams are not the owners of F1, they are the participants and they have a choice to participate or stay out. If they stay out of course they will have to still live up to the points made in their contracts. But let's not feel too bad about them as they signed those contracts on the first place. (Follow the analogy of you signing up for a three-year cellular phone contract, realizing a year and half in that the phone you got with your plan is already outdated. You knew it was going to happen, still you did it.)

You see, teams, especially manufacturers, joined in because F1 is the greatest way to advertise their product. To put a value to the prestige F1 participation gave to Ferrari is very hard if not impossible. But it is very much the same case with say the original McLaren-Honda, Williams-Renault match up that practically built a cult around the technology of Honda and Renault engines of the 1980s and 1990s. (I’m saying the engines because we all know that neither Honda nor Renault has the aerodynamic touch.)

The manufacturer teams might be able to break away one of these years, but the basis of their championship will not be sustainable. Take the case of say five runaway seasons by say Ferrari and compare the end results to that of current Le Mans. There will be 2-3 teams left by the end who can outspend everybody else and that's it. And this is not a possibility only. This is almost certainty.

Look at DTM, Le Mans etc. If you are only in it for advertising you will pull out right away once you lose 2-3 times. If your sole purpose of existence is race car engineering however, you will be inclined to stay. Look at the case of Williams F1.

I am therefore very much inclined to see the new F1, because a spec-series my manufacturers will just never cut it. And this is the second relevant issue. You see the question will be who will be watching what. The answer is simpler than you think.

Most people will be watching the current F1 because of existing TV contracts, because most casual fans don't know much about the background, and because the manufacturers will have to be able to convince TV companies that their product is better than that of F1. This last one is near-impossible because no one in their right mind would want to risk not getting F1, an established series that guarantees a billion+ viewing audience versus a championship that could go either way.  

This will be the case even after five years from now. Thus the question becomes are the FOTA teams have deep enough pockets, strong enough commitment etc to pull this one off and sustain a championship that may only draw the hardcore audiences for the first five years? Meaning that their TV revenues will be at most 1/10th of what they are today? How do you justify that towards the companies that pay for the decor of your car?

Now you might argue that the prestige of big teams will draw audiences away from F1 towards the new series and undoubtedly you will be right. But do not think that casual fans, who are not passionate about F1, like you dear reader is, put too much value on the names versus racing.

Add to that the fact that if all the FOTA teams get booted you will have new entrants using names like Lola, Lotus etc. And suddenly you will see that the casual audience will be just as hooked on F1 as before. I can almost guarantee that F1 will make sure that racing will stay as close as possible for the next five years, just to ensure the excitement around F1 doesn’t subside.

You see it does not matter that McLaren and Ferrari are all established teams because for the first year or two the F1 branding would still mean pinnacle to most casual fans. Furthermore the one who controls the TV audiences is the one to succeed eventually, at least that’s what the IRL – CART struggle taught us. FOTA will have a near-impossible battle ahead of it, one not unlike that of climbing Mt. Everest...