Minnesota Vikings: State of the Franchise—2009

The Minnesota Vikings have made a remarkable turnaround from just two seasons ago, where they were so bad they had the seventh overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

They used that pick on Adrian Peterson, and have ridden the running back straight to success in the mediocre NFC North.

In 2008, they traded their first round pick combined with a few other picks to go get Jared Allen. That acquisition paid dividends immediately, in the form of a team-leading 14.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.

They were beaten on their home turf by the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round, marking the second consecutive time the Eagles have bounced the Vikings from the playoffs.

They have a lot to prove this coming season; perhaps, for starters, that last year wasn’t a fluke, and that they can win the division more than just once.

If they pick up Brett Favre, he’ll have something to prove, too—that Ted Thompson made a mistake.

Offense

The offense is predicated on the performance of Adrian Peterson, who could make an even bigger impact with defenses playing more honestly; after all, Brett Favre will be under center for the Vikings in 2009.

Even if that doesn’t prove to be the case (and I’ve gone on record as saying I hope he stays retired), Peterson has helped the Vikings turn around from the 16th overall rushing offense, to first in nearly every category in 2007, and then fifth overall in 2008.

AP averaged a red hot 5.6 yards per carry average in his rookie season, in which he won the Rookie of the Year award.

But sports analysts have said this time and time again: it all starts with the offensive line. And the Vikings’ front line is notoriously stacked.

With beasts Bryant McKinnie and perennial All-Pro Steve Hutchinson anchoring the left side of the line, they’ve opened up massive holes for Peterson to break long gains. Their right side hasn’t been as effective, but second-round pick Phil Loadholt out of Oklahoma could contribute early and often as a right tackle in the Vikings’ power-based running game.

Center Matt Birk left the team as a free agent, and the Vikings showed confidence in their current prospects at the position by failing to draft a new center or to pick one up in free agency. Their current top option, John Sullivan, played in every game last season and could develop into a stud down the road.

What about the whole new dimension being brought to the offense by Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin? Of course, the notorious speed of Harvin would be complemented extremely well by the arm of the 40-year-old veteran Favre. 

Harvin also adds versatility with his arm and can line up in the backfield in a wildcat formation. The Vikings didn’t feature this formation last year, but if they develop it in practice, they could be deadly from the single-wing.

Bernard Berrian also has blazing speed, and could act as a mentor for Harvin; Berrian was once tagged an unpolished speedster with below-average route-running skills, just like Harvin has been by some of his doubters.

The threat of two deep options in their offense helps to open up the box for Adrian Peterson; likewise, the strength of their running game forces opposing defenses to play the run honestly with at least six defenders in the box.

They also have some nice developmental prospects at receiver in Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice, both of whom have come on strong at different points for Minnesota.

If they can polish their mistakes and hone their skills, they could become very viable options for the passing attack, opening up even more lanes for “All Day”.

But let’s not forget the most undervalued position on offense—tight end. Visanthe Shiancoe is stellar in the run-blocking game, but he’s a duel threat as a great receiving tight end as well.

With all of these options in the passing game, and no legitimate or established NFL quarterback to throw them the ball, this seems to be where Favre would fit in nicely. Though I think Favre would eventually grow tired yet again and be hampered by his beleaguered arm, I do contest that he would be a good fit in the Vikings offense.

Defense

The “Williams Wall” may come tumblin’ down for the first few games of the season, but I would anticipate them to jump right back into form.

Defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams have been a fixture in the Vikings defense for years, and have ranked first in total rushing yardage allowed for three straight seasons. Both have made the Pro Bowl all three of those years.

Their group of linebackers is known more for strength and making sure tackles than for speed and rushing the passer, as is usually the case in a 4-3 defense. After injury brought his 2008 season to a screeching halt, the return of E.J. Henderson to the lineup could mean even better things for their top-flight run defense.

Last year, in an effort to bolster their passing defense, they went and grabbed defensive end Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs in a trade. He contributed immediately at right end, registering 14.5 sacks last season along with three forced fumbles and two safeties.

Despite ranking fourth in sacks (45), they ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every other passing defense category.

Their long-standing deficiency in passing defense has made opposing offenses take notice, and they now exploit the Vikings’ weakness in the secondary. Opposing offenses attempted 530 collective passes (good for 11th in the league) against only 371 running plays (31st), so the passing game is a huge area of concern for the Vikings.

They drafted third-round cornerback prospect Asher Allen out of Georgia, and took the necessary measures to lock up Cedric Griffin with a three-year contract extension. Antoine Winfield has been a fixture in their defense for years, but he is very short and not as fast as he once was; he's not as great in coverage as he once was, especially against todays wide receivers who are built more like small forwards in the NBA.

Will their secondary be good enough? The front office failed to make any major additions to their current squad, despite the notorious weakness they show against the passing game. They ranked 24th in the league in interceptions with only 12, four of which came from two players – the aforementioned Griffin and Winfield.

However, with pass rushers like Kevin Williams, Allen, and Chad Greenway swarming the opposing quarterback, perhaps the strength of their front seven can mask their weaknesses in the secondary.

At least, that’s probably what Childress is banking on.

Chances of Winning This Year

With the wacky way in which the NFC North has jumped back and forth between different teams over the past few seasons (a different team has finished first in the past three seasons), don’t think that the Vikings can write their ticket to the playoffs based solely on their performance last year.

The consistent and error-proof play they got from quarterback Gus Frerotte will need to be duplicated by whoever is under center for the Vikings this coming year, whether that be Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, or Favre.

The question is, can any of those three guys provide that kind of quarterbacking for a full 16-game season?

In their playoff loss, Jackson completed only 42.8 percent of his passes and threw an interception.

Meanwhile, their defense gave up 300 yards to Donovan McNabb, who completed 67.6-percent of his passes; all of this, despite Jared Allen sacking him twice.

It seems that no matter how heavy the pass rush is, their secondary will have to make marked improvements across the board to become Super Bowl contenders, instead of pretenders.

Their personnel are talented; they just need to play up to their potential.

Chances of Winning in the Future

The Vikings have managed to stay relatively young at all the key positions in their defense.

Pat Williams, Winfield, and Hutchinson aren’t getting any younger, but I wouldn’t expect their performance to diminish too heavily this season compared to last (if it diminishes at all).

Key cogs like Kevin Williams (28), Henderson (28), Chad Greenway (27), Cedric Griffin (26), and of course Adrian Peterson (24) are still in their youth and/or their prime, and have a long time to go as heavy contributors to the team.

If the Vikings continue to build through the draft wisely as they have in the recent past (Sam Bradford?), they can seriously improve their chances of contending down the road.

It’s clear the Vikings still have some holes in their defense, particularly in the secondary, and one glaring hole on offense at quarterback.  But if they can continue to make the right offseason moves for a few more years, they can prime themselves to be contenders down the road a couple of years.

The players they will lose due to age, though they are major contributors, can be replaced (though replacing a perpetual Pro Bowl guard who is literally the building block of your running game may be easier said than done.)

I’m not sure that the Vikings will contend for the Super Bowl this season, but in the weak NFC North, they can at least contend for the top spot in their division.