Fantasy Football: Identifying the Smart First-Round Selections

Taylor RummelJun 16, 2009

I know what you're thinking: "Not another one of those boring articles assessing players who go early in drafts." Granted, I myself can only take so much of those annual snoozer articles.

However, in this article, I will not only list the most up-to-date ADP list for 12-team leagues, but also will tell you which first rounders you should select, and which ones you should pass on based on where they are going.

Because after all, you can't "make" your draft in the first round, but you can certainly "break" it.

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Adrian Peterson, (No. 1 on ADP)

This guy is the best there is. He possesses electrifying moves, shifty maneuvering, and breakneck speed. He started his rampage early in his college career at Oklahoma and has not let off the gas.

In his rookie season, Peterson rushed for over 1,300 yards and also garnered 12 touchdowns. Then this past season, he raised his yardage total to 1,760 yards and collected 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Who knows what he can do this year. Last season still, he lost a chunk of carries to backup Chester Taylor, but now that AP has cemented himself as part of the NFL's elite, look for Taylor's share of carries to lessen; resulting in more carries, (and stats) for Peterson.

I foretell a rise in Peterson's overall numbers for the upcoming season, as he has yet to attain his full potential, (scary to think about).

He is definitely worthy of the first overall selection in all draft formats.

Matt Forte, (No. 2 on ADP)

Forte had an excellent rookie campaign last year totaling 1,238 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, and also collecting 477 yards and another four scores through the air on 63 catches.

That last part makes him a very sexy fantasy pick, as he can, (and will) accumulate stats both via the air and ground, (allowing him to keep on the field on all downs).

This past offseason, the Chicago Bears traded for emerging star quarterback Jay Cutler. Bears' fans are rejoicing as he is believed to be the best quarterback that the franchise has ever had. Forte has reason to rejoice as well since he will be facing defenses with less men in the box, resulting from Cutler's ability to make all kinds of throws.

Forte, while he could produce the same kind of numbers or even increase them a bit with the arrival of Cutler, should fall back down to earth a little bit numerically speaking, albeit not by much.

Draft Forte with confidence with your third selection, but I would rather take Maurice Jones-Drew with the second overall pick.

Michael Turner, (No. 3 on ADP)

Michael "The Burner" Turner held the title of "Breakout Star" this past season. After spending the first four seasons of his career with the San Diego Chargers, patiently awaiting his turn to start behind LaDanian Tomlinson, Turner finally got the opportunity he was looking for when he was signed by the Atlanta Falcons.

A magical season was in store for him. Nearly 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns were the numbers he attained, both easily career bests.

But here's the kicker. There is no way that Turner will achieve these same stats again. It just isn't going to happen. That said, people are still drafting him as if they expect a repeat in those numbers.

With your first round pick, you want the upside potential more than anything, and Turner doesn't possess it.

Draft him in the mid-late first round.

Maurice Jones-Drew, (No. 4 on ADP)

No more Fragile Fred to take away carries. He [Fred] was released by the Jags and signed by the Patriots in this past offseason; paving the way for MJD to become the feature back that everyone knows he can be.

Last year, while splitting with Taylor, Jones-Drew managed 824 yards and 12 scores on only 197 carries. That last part should make us all tingle. Expect Jones-Drew to see about 80-90 more carries this year, which should result in a major increase in stats.

Personally, I don't see a huge raise in his yardage totals, I mean, certainly it will go up, just based on the increase in carries he will be seeing, but he isn't built for between the 20's, he is a goal line back at heart.

This is the guy who I would draft at No. 2 overall. It's all about who has the potential to achieve the highest stats, not who has already.

Steven Jackson, (No. 5 on ADP)

Can Jackson finally be healthy for a full season this year? People are drafting him like they expect him to. He is a big-bodied bruiser, who produces where it counts most: At the goal line.

In every year except his rookie season, Jackson has broken the 1,000-yard barrier. This tells me that he is one of the more consistent backs in the league. Also important to note is that his job is safe and secure; a hot commodity these days.

Last season, Jackson accumulated 1,042 yards on the ground with seven touchdowns. Through the air he snagged 40 passes for 379 yards and an additional score.

Crazy to think about is the fact that this dude had 90 catches in his wonderful 2006 campaign. That's tough for wide receivers to accomplish let alone a running back. Just shows you the versatility of this guy here.

Jackson missed four games last year because of injury; thus putting a damper on his overall numbers. Expect him to perform better this year than last.

Jackson is worthy of the five spot, take him there if you can.

Chris Johnson, (No. 6 on ADP)

The ole' Tennessee tandem: Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Johnson the slasher, White the bruiser. However, the one you want is White.

Last year in his first season in the league, White rushed for 1,228 yards and scored nine touchdowns. He also collected 260 yards and another score via the air.

It is widely known that the Tennessee coaching staff isn't particularly fond of White, since he is thought to have a poor work ethic, and he is notorious for being overweight. That being said, White could be released or traded at any time if he falls to out of favor; which would then open the door for Johnson.

Chris Johnson going here is about right. His combination of upside, and skill-set make him an intriguing pick to be had in the early-mid first round.

LaDanian Tomlinson, (No. 7 on ADP)

Mr. Fantasy Relevance had a cold and bitter year this prior season; after dominating the fantasy stat sheets for most of his career. However, bitter the season was, it was still phenomenal which says a lot about Tomlinson.

Although it was a career low, he still managed to round up 1,110 rushing yards and 11 scores, all while battling a nagging injury during the course of the season.

Some people say that backup Sproles will eat into some of his workload. Well if LT is your No. 1 back, then how many carries do you think won't go to him?

Tomlinson provides very nice value at the seven spot. Many discount him because of his age, and the risk of losing more carries this year, but even if that's the case, he should still perform nicely as at least a top ten back.

Larry Fitzgerald, (No. 8 on ADP)

While I am not a big fan of taking someone from the wide receiver position this early, Fitzgerald did impress with his gaudy totals:

96 catches, 1,431 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

What's impressive is that he put up those numbers even while sharing the field with fellow stud receiver Anquan Boldin, and emerging slot receiver Steve Breaston.

While the numbers from last season should drop a bit, (especially if Boldin does bolt, (although that doesn't seem like it will be the case)), they should remain relatively high and certainly a 1,200 yard 10 touchdown campaign is within the realm of possibility.

His quarterback, Kurt Warner, is staying put, which bodes well for Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald is possibly the number one receiver heading into the season, but he should not be drafted this high. Draft a running back instead with pick No. 8.

DeAngelo Williams, (No. 9 on ADP)

Contrary to popular belief, this guy, DeAngelo Williams had the most fantasy points out of all running backs, not Michael Turner. It is incredible that Williams was able to this while splitting a considerable amount of carries with rookie goal line phenom Jonathan Stewart, (who took away 10 touchdowns).

Williams rushed for 1,515 yards and collected 18 touchdowns; the most of any back on solely on the ground. This can certainly be staked as his "breakout" season, as it was third year in the league and the highest in a continual incline in his numbers.

Look for Williams' numbers to drop, not because last season was a fluke, but because those high of numbers are unsustainable; and look for him to gain around 1,200-1,300 yards while scoring 10-13 touchdowns.

At pick No. 9, Williams definitely provides the proverbial "bang for the buck."

Andre Johnson, (No. 10 on ADP)

After suffering injuries throughout his young career, yet still managing top-20-wide-receiver numbers, year after year, Johnson put it all together and had a hell of a season last year.

A monstrous 115 reception, 1,575 yard, 8 touchdown campaign he could call his own. The scary part is that his quarterback, Matt Schaub, missed five games last season. So for five games, Johnson had a less than stellar QB throw him passes, and he still managed to rack up the incredible numbers that he did.

Imagine what Johnson could do with a fully healthy Schaub...(I'll let the thought...and numbers soak in).

Like the previous two players, a slight decrease in total production should be expected from Johnson, again simply because it is unheard of for a player to perform this well in back-to-back seasons.

And while, I personally won't be taking him this year, (just based on where you will have to grab him), he should perform admirably being drafted at the end of the first; which is where you'll have to pick him up if you want him.

Steve Slaton, (No. 11 on ADP)

This guy's a stud, and will be for a long time, (bar any serious injury).

In his rookie year last season with the Texans, Slaton totaled 1,282 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground resulting from 268 carries, while also catching 50 passes for an additional 377 yards and score. He should see his workload increase this upcoming year now that the coaching staff knows what he can do when he's given the ball.

The fact that the Texans have such a dynamic offense with Schaub, Johnson and other wideout Kevin Walter, and tight end Daniels, just means that Slaton will see less defenders in the box; giving him more room to run free.

It's a joke that this guy is slipping all the way until the final selections of the first round. I have Slaton ranked as the No. 4 running back, just behind Forte and just ahead of Jackson.

Expect great things from Slaton this season, maybe around the tone of a 1,600 total yard, 15 total touchdown year.

Randy Moss, (No. 12 on ADP)

What does it say when a guy can muster over 1,000 receiving yards and double digit TDs while playing with his backup QB for the whole year?

It says that this guy is money in the bank when it comes to talent, and prominence. (By prominence, I mean he plays a large role in the offense).

With his normal QB Tom Brady two years ago, Moss had a season for the ages: 1,493 receiving yards, and a record setting 23 touchdowns. Now with Brady back under center, you can expect more those numbers, and less 2008 ones.

This is about the right spot for Moss. He has the potential to put up major stats this season, making him potentially the No. 1 receiver come years' end.

Bottom line is, if he's there at 12, take him without any questions, and enjoy the fantastic season that you are sure to be in store for.

For the record, here are my first-round rankings, (for 12 man leagues):