U.S. Open Preview: Woods Will Win At Bethpage Again

Woods will win the U.S. Open at Bethpage again, just like he did in 2002.

That's what everyone thinks.

What is Tiger thinking?

Maybe the other 155 contestants in the 109th U.S. Open are thinking what Tom Weiskopf was thinking as Nicklaus was winning the 1986 Masters.

"If I knew the way he thought, I would have won this tournament."

Here are my thoughts and predictions about what will happen come Sunday afternoon at the Bethpage Black golf course.

There are three groupings of players—the first, called the "favorites," has a legitimate chance to win this U.S. Open. It might not be an overwhelming chance like Tiger's but nonetheless it is a chance.

The next grouping of players has half the chance of the favorites.

While it may be surprising if they win on Sunday it will not be a total surprise.

If one of the players in the third group wins, it will be a surprise. Not to say they can't do it, but it would be a heroic effort paralleling that of Steve Jones winning at Oakland CC in 1996. After all, that is why they play the golf tournament—any one of the 156 participants has a chance to win.

The Favorites

Tiger Woods is the undisputed favorite to win the 2009 U.S. Open—where he won his 8th Major in 2002. With 14 Majors to date, he has four left to tie (and five to beat) Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 Major victories.

After last year's heroic 18-hole playoff victory over Rocco Mediate that went into sudden death at Torrey Pines, Tiger underwent reconstructive surgery on his left knee. There is no doubt he is back in form after an eight month layoff.

Like Gay, Tiger has won twice in his last five events. He has four top-10 finishes, and his worst finish is a T16 at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship, where he was knocked out in his second match by Tim Clark.

2007 U.S. Open Champion Angel Cabrera, who has the heart and guts to win a Masters playoff against Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell, can certainly come through with his second U.S. Open championship in three years.

Brian Gay is arguably the hottest golfer on the PGA TOUR, winning two of his last five starts at Hilton Head and Memphis. The "Ironman" of the tour also had two top-10 finishes earlier in the year. Though he is "hot from Memphis", he has also missed the cut in all five U.S. Opens he has competed in.

Chad Campbell learned something from his playoff loss to Cabrera, and has the fire in his belly to avenge that loss and win his first Major. This is his sixth U.S. Open, with a T3 in 2006 at Winged Foot as his best finish.

David Toms had six top-10 finishes this year including a T2 at last week's St. Jude Classic. This is his 13th U.S. Open, with his best finish being a T5 in 2007 at Oakmont CC.

With 12 PGA TOUR victories, including the 2001 PGA Championship, this old dog is still hungry—and not only knows how to hunt, but to win the trophy at the end of the week.

Geoff Ogilvy, the 2006 U.S. Open Champion at nearby Winged Foot GC (courtesy of Phil Mickelson's "I am so stupid" finish), has won twice already earlier this year. With a T10 finish at the Memorial, his game is ready for the test of Bethpage Black.

Henrik Stenson, the PLAYERS Champion, is capable of winning the big one this week. Though he missed the cut in Memphis, he is warmed up and on American time now.

Ian Poulter who has four top-10 finishes, including a second place finish to Stenson at the PLAYERS Championship. And who could forget his gutsy second place finish at the British Open last year?

Jim Furyk, the 2003 U.S. Open champion at Olympia Fields, had six top-10 finishes this year—though he hasn't won since the Canadian Open almost two years ago. A second U.S. Open title would complement his 13 tour victories to date.

Paul Casey is another hot golfer who earlier in the year lost to Ogilvy in the final match at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Then, he won for the first time on the PGA TOUR at the Shell Houston and kept the momentum going with his second win on the European Tour at the BMW PGA Championship. This is his seventh U.S. Open with his best finish a T10 in 2007 at Oakmont CC.

Sean O'Hair had five top-10 finishes this year, and then broke through for his third PGA TOUR victory at the Quail Hollow Championship. With a T10 finish at Augusta National, he is poised to break through with a Major victory, even though this is only his third U.S. Open.

Zach Johnson, the 2007 Masters Champion, already has two wins and three other top 10 finishes this year. With a week off, and fresh off the Valero Texas Open win, and T9 at Colonial Johnson's game, Johnson is in top form to go after that second Major. In five previous U.S. Opens, Johnson's best finish is a dismal T45.

Two-time U.S. Open Champion Retief Goosen (2001 Southern Hills CC, 2004 Shinnecock Hills GC) has shown championship form this year, with a win at the Transitions and a third place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.

Any one of these 13 "favorites" could win the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black.

The second group

Aaron Baddeley: Four missed cuts and one withdraw in 13 events. Nothing spectacular or promising,  except that he finished T9 at The Players and, like fellow Aussie Adam Scott, has the potential to win a Major. This may very well be his breakthrough week.

Adam Scott: Who knows when swing changes click and skill returns. There is no reason to believe it will be this week—Scott missed six cuts in a row, tied for 64th at Colonial, and missed the cut at the Memorial. Maybe a week off will be the right medicine to cure the ailments of his game.

Ben Curtis, the 2003 British Open Champion, had a T7 in the British Open and a T2 at the PGA Championship at Oakland Hills CC last year. He scooted over to Europe for two to- 10 finishes in late May and finished T41 at the Memorial Tournament—which is indicative of his mediocre play in the U.S. this year. He is still a contender.

Bubba Watson has two top-10 finshes this year, but has yet to win on the PGA Tour. He might as well make his first victory a Major. If he can stay focused and his long drives find the fairways, he may sneak in a win without anyone the wiser.

Camilo Villegas broke through, winning the last two events of 2008—the BMW Championship playoff and the Tour Championship. His game is promising this year with three top-10 finishes, in addition to a 13th finish at the Masters and T14 at The Players.

Dustin Johnson won his second PGA Tour event in less than five months at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. With two other top-10 finishes, including a T4 at Byron Nelson, this consistent performer, who has made 12 of 15 cuts, could put it all together and come away with a Major this week.

Ernie Els, "the Big Easy," may surprise some with his fourth Major victory. With three top-10 finishes this year, including a T8 at Byron Nelson, this two-time U.S. Open Champion (1994 Oakmont CC, 1997 Congressional CC), with a taste of winning again at last year's Honda Classic, may win another big one in the Big Apple.

Graeme McDowell is doing the Euro world tour thing, coming over for only the big events like the WGCs and Majors, with a preparatory week prior to the competitions. Last week he finished T7 at Memphis with a Sunday 63—so maybe this is his time?

Hunter Mahan hasn't missed a cut in 14 events this year. Mr. Consistency can be streaky good, as he followed up a seventh place finish at the Shell Houston with tenth at the Masters. He showed he has the temperament and determination to win something big at the Ryder Cup last fall.

Kenny Perry has cooled off since his FBR Open win, five other top-10 finishes, and his tragic Masters playoff loss. But you never know when this focused golfer will turn it on and dominate and win—perhaps in a Major.

Luke Donald had four top-10 finishes this year after recovering from a wrist injury at Torrey Pines last year. He came back six weeks quicker than Tiger Woods with a lot less fanfare. After two PGA Tour wins, perhaps now it is time for a Major for this highly skilled golfer.

Michael Campbell won the U.S. Open only four years ago at Pinehurst No. 2. The New Zealander hasn't done much since that Major victory and is 0-for-3 in the U.S. this year, with two missed cuts and a WD.

2003 Masters Champion Mike Weir had three top-10 finishes this year including a T10 at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. Though he won a Fall Series event at the end of the 2007 season, his  regular season win was five years ago at the Nissan Open.

Nick Watney won his second PGA Tour event at the Buick Invitational in the fifth week of the season. He challenged Phil Mickelson and finished second at the WGC-CA Championship, and then fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Padraig Harrington has missed the cut in three of last four tournaments he competed in. Winner of three of the last seven Majors, he may have tinkered with his game a bit too much. A win this week will substantiate his theory that one must always be improving in order to maintain a winning streak. He may be the "Champion Golfer of the Year" for the third straight year.

Phil Mickelson really wants to win a U.S. Open after four second-place finishes—1999 by one stroke to Payne Stewart at Pinehurst No. 2, 2002 by three strokes to Tiger Woods at Bethpage Black, 2004 by two strokes to Retief Goosen at Shinnecock Hills GC, and a T2 in the one that really got away to Geoff Ogilvy in 2006 at Winged Foot. He is 0-for-3 in New York—though he loves the city and they love him, the underdog and U.S. Open underachiever.

With too much on his mind, given Amy's health issue and limited play in the last month, it is unlikely he will contend at Bethpage this week.

Mickelson is potentially U.S. Open-cursed to the likes of Sam Sneed and Arnold Palmer.

Rory Sabbatini seems to be emerging along the lines of his South African counterpart Trevor Immelman.  With now five PGA Tour wins, including the recent HP Byron Nelson, Sabbatini has surpassed Immelman's two regular tour wins. This week might be his chance to even up the Major column at one apiece.

Stewart Cink is a career player with five PGA TORU wins but no Major victory to date. This will be his 14th U.S. Open, with his best finish being third place in 2001 when Goosen won his first at Southern Hills CC. He's had a solid year with a third place finish at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship and most recently, a T8 at the Memorial Tournament. This might be the week he wins the Major he needs to fully define a great golfing career.

Steve Stricker knows how to win but also knows how hard it is—especially with Tiger in the field. With six top-10 finishes this year, culminating in a win three weeks ago at Colonial, this may be the week Stricker breaks through in a Major.

Vijay Singh's dominating performance in 2008, where he won the first two playoff events and the Fed Ex Cup, seems like a long time ago. Fighting through injuries, he finished T9 at THE PLAYERS and T6 at Colonial in last four starts. This will be his 17th U.S. Open and his 16th consecutive—with his best recent finish being a T6 three years ago at Winged Foot GC.

Group Three

Though they have a chance, any winner out of the third group of 19 golfers would be a big surprise if they were to prevail against this world-class field and the 33 golfers noted above.

Aaron Baddeley has four missed cuts and one WD in 13 events. He has shown nothing spectacular or promising, except that he finished T9 at The Players. And like fellow Aussie Adam Scott, he has the potential to win a Major like their countryman Geoff Ogilvy. This may very well be his breakthrough week.

Anthony Kim finished T20 at the Masters but seems to be in a slump—still recharging from a big year in 2008 that featured Ryder Cup heroics and his first two victories. He's working with his college trainer to get in better shape, and is trying to find his old swing again. If he has a Ryder Cup-like week, he could be the next U.S. Open Champion.

Ben Crane has posted three top-10 finishes at the Buick Invitational, the Honda Classic and The Players. At TPC Sawgrass on Sunday someone yelled out, "How does it feel to be leading The Players?" After that, he went downhill and watched as playing partner Henrik Stenson put together a masterful bogey-free, six-birdie 66 to win. As long as he stays in his own game and own mind, he has a chance this week to add a Major to two PGA Tour victories on his resume.

Billy Mayfair: You can count him out, as he has missed 12-of-16 cuts so far this year. After a career year in 2008 with four top 10 finishes (including a T10 at the TOUR Championship), his golf game still thinks it is the off season. Mayfair last won in 1998.

Boo Weekley is coming back from a shoulder injury at The Players—returning for last week's St. Jude Classic and missing the cut. Don't count this Ryder Cup champion and superb ball striker out on a tough U.S. Open golf course like Bethpage Black.     

Brandt Snedeker is the darling of the 2008 Masters, where he missed the cut this year. Overall, he has had the weekend off in eight out of 11 events this year. The one-time PGA Tour Champion finished T9 at Torrey Pines last year.

Carl Pettersson has missed 10 of 17 cuts this year. Bethpage will likely be No. 11.

Charles Howell III has three top-10 finishes but has missed four of the last five cuts.

D.J. Trahan has two top-10 finishes, but missed seven of the last eight cuts. An early exit is predicted this week.

David Duval: The good news is he is playing again. The bad news is that he is playing poorly—missing nine of 13 cuts. However, he still thinks he is one of the ten best golfers in the world today.

Eric Axley missed 12 of 17 cuts this year, though he will be well-rested and hopefully well-prepared after two of the last three weeks off tour.

Fred Funk has always been a sentimental favorite after winning 2005 Players. He has knee issues and has played in only three PGA TOUR events this year—making the cut only once at The Players and finishing T79.

Gary Woodland is the long-hitting Q-School Graduate, plugging along on the tour while missing eight of 14 cuts and finishing no higher than T28 at the opposite field Mayakoba event. He is the reason Freddie Couples is heading to the Champions Tour. Maybe he could pull off a Cinderella John Daly at Crooked Stick story this week—who knows?

Rory McIlroy the 20-year-old Northern Ireland emerging superstar golfer is simply too young to win.

Sergio Garcia's woman problems are understandable if you have ever seen Greg Norman's daughter. He was in the fog defending at The Players and likely will not be 100% focused this week. Hopefully without the regrip milking action of seven years ago, the New York crowd will warm up to him as a jilted lover. At least the young ladies of New York certainly will.

Tim Clark's collapse at Colonial CC is still too fresh in his mind to contend this week. Look for him to make a run at the British Open or PGA Championship as soon as he learns to make a positive out of a negative. Hopefully he can do it quicker than Woody Austin.

Tom Lehman, playing a limited schedule, placed eighth at the Transitions. You never know when the golf gods will show mercy on a great guy who finished third-T2 and third-T5 over a four year period (1995-1998).

Rocco Mediate was last year's stand up guy, matching Tiger Woods stroke for stroke through the 18-hole Monday playoff before getting beat on the first sudden death hole.  Mediate is simply playing too poorly this year, albeit consistently—not missing any cuts in 12 starts to get it done at Bethpage. His best finish is T22 at Quail Hollow. Everyone, including this golf writer, will be pulling for him to go all the way this year.

There you have it: the 13 contenders, 20 potential contenders, and 19 unlikely contenders ready to compete in the 109th U.S. Open at Bethpage Black this week.

Besides these 52 golfers there are another 104 with the potential to finish first and win this Major Championship.

Woods to win the U.S. Open at Bethpage again. Just like he did in 2002.

That's what everyone thinks.

Let's see history being made one way or another.

Andy Reistetter is a freelance golf writer. He follows the PGA TOUR volunteering for the tournaments and working part time for NBC Sports, CBS Sports, and The Golf Channel. He resides in Jacksonville Beach, Florida near the PGA TOUR headquarters and home of The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach. He enjoys pursuing his passion for the game of golf and everything associated with it. He can be reached through his website www.MrHickoryGolf.net or by e-mailing him to [e-mail]