Roughing Up a Tough Division: Miguel Cotto vs. Joshua Clottey

On Saturday, June 13, boxing fans are being given what has become something of a rarity in the sport: an evenly matched, competitive bout between two of a division's best—in this case, Ring Magazine's No. 2- and 4-rated welterweights, Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey.

The matchup is exciting not only because of the calibre of the fighters, but because of the formidable weight class in which they make their living. Shane Mosley, Andre Berto, Floyd Mayweather Jr., Antonio Margarito, and Zab Judah are just some of the sharks swimming in the higher waters of the welterweight pool.

A win for either Cotto (33-1, 27 KOs) or Clottey (35-2, 20 KOs) would mean taking centre stage in that division, as well as paving the way toward possible super fights with the likes of Manny Pacquiao and Mayweather Jr.

Puerto Rico's current favorite son, Cotto will be stepping into the ring (his sixth occasion at Madison Square Garden) as the heavy favorite.

That the fight coincides with the annual Puerto Rico Day parade means Clottey is in the unenviable position of fighting in front of 20,000 largely pro-Cotto supporters, as well as being the betting underdog.

But make no mistake: Clottey is a real live opponent and he will be Cotto's first serious test since his now-controversial loss to Antonio Margarito in July of last year.

Clottey also dropped a loss to Margarito, who was disgraced earlier this year when the California State Athletic Commission found evidence that he had attempted to "load" his gloves against Shane Mosley, back in 2006.

In this regard, the spectre of Margarito hangs over the fight, allowing us some insight into the strengths and weaknesses of both Cotto and Clottey.

Here are a few of them:

- The affects of the Margarito loss over Cotto, as well as the fall out from his uncle/trainer being recently fired under acrimonious circumstances, are not fully known. He looked confident and strong against an underwhelming Michael Jennings in February, but Clottey is in a higher league than the Englishman. If the Ghanaian effectively mimics Margarito's pressure-boiler approach, could he produce the same result?

- Expect pace and work rate to be central to this fight. Both Cotto and Clottey have shown signs that they tend to tire in the championship rounds; therefore expect the fighter with the smarter work rate to dominate the contest.

Clottey will do this in one of two ways: by closing off the ring should Cotto choose to box, or by breaking down the latter with uppercuts should he choose to make excursions on the inside. As Margarito demonstrated, Cotto can be made to regret standing his ground and pushed onto the back foot with consistent pressure.

If Cotto is smart he will attempt to reproduce the first eight rounds of his 2007 victory over Shane Mosley, switching effectively between move-back boxing and aggressive assaults throughout the rounds. In the later rounds, should he tire, he'll need to engage in the tactical clinching he's until now been unwilling to practice. It may not be well regarded in the more machismo of Puerto Rican circles, but Cotto is likable precisely because he is willing to adapt as a fighter and I'm hoping this is something his team have worked on.

- Defense, defense, defense. Much has been made, rightly, of Clottey's excellent defensive capabilities. Using his long arms, he can comfortably shield his face and torso from attack with great effectiveness. This will require the ultra-accurate Cotto to take extra risks in teasing Clottey's defense open—most likely by launching the excursions on the inside I suggested above. Also look for the latter to feint frequently in an effort to get around Clottey's high hands with his devastating left hooks.

Cotto is not as water-tight defensively as his opponent, but I think some commentators have made a bigger deal of his chin than is necessary. In fact if they were to re-examine the Mosley match, they would see that Cotto can take a solid punch from top contenders. What really gets him in trouble are his oft-times poor balance and an unwillingness to hold when in trouble. Furthermore, Clottey has pointed out that Cotto is a sucker for one of the strongest weapons in his own arsenal...

- The bodyshot. This is where we'll see the real magic in this fight. Cotto and Clottey are equally famed for their body work, brutalising their opponents with well placed kidney, liver and rib shots. As Clottey recently said: "The body shots are going to affect both of us because I am going to hit the body a lot. If he is going to feel the body shots then he’s got a problem. If I feel the body shots, then I’ve got a problem.’’ Enough said.

The outcome: Both fighters are big, strong, pliable welterweights, but I see Cotto carrying this by a close points decision. Jim Lampley once commented, "Cotto is a killer of spirit," and while I don't think he'll knock the larger Clottey out, I think he'll be able to use his superior speed and aggression to frustrate the Ghanaian and gradually outpoint him.

And what for the future?

A win for either Cotto or Clottey, as I see it, would mean a date with Shane Mosley later in the year. See it as an eliminator fight for the winner of Pacquiao-Mayweather (should Mayweather get by Marquez and agree to an equal or lower purse).

But it's best not to get ahead of ourselves. Saturday is, after all, going to be that rare occasion when fight fans can savour seeing two of the world's top welterweights face one another in a good, honest battle.