MLB Free Agents 2014: Predictions for Ervin Santana, Kendrys Morales and More
Players with the kind of past and expected production carried by Ervin Santana, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew are not typically still available via free agency as the calendar prepares to flip to March.
Yet, there they are—all waiting to find a new team to call home. This is the product of baseball's free-agent compensation system.
All three of these guys rejected one-year, $14.1 million guarantees from their respective 2013 teams. Once those deals were rejected, it meant any new team would have to give the players' former team compensation in the form of a first-round draft pick to sign him.
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For the three guys mentioned above, it has resulted in them not finding a team.
Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti, in a quote passed along by MLB.com's Phil Rogers, summed it up like this:
"You don't know how many people turned down good money early, hoping for a different team, a different salary, a different term. As things moved on, they wound up sitting there in the middle of February.
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There is a loop hole around all of this for the players. If they don't sign with a team until after June's draft, there will be no compensation attached to them. This creates an interesting free-agent landscape as the season progresses.
Here is how I see it playing out.
Ervin Santana, P
Don't expect Santana to ink a deal anytime soon.
The 31-year-old has posted a WHIP of 1.27 or less in each of his past three seasons, and he's thrown at least 178 innings in each of his last four seasons.
He had a bit of a down season in 2012 with the Angels, but got back on track last year with the Kansas City Royals.
There is a spot for Santana in any rotation, and teams are always on the lookout for more pitching. That is especially true as teams prepare for the stretch run. Considering the expanded playoff system debuting this season, there are likely to be more teams than ever looking for starting pitching.
After June's draft, Santana will just be sitting around waiting for a desperate team to make him an offer near the four years and $50 million that CBS' Jon Heyman reported Santana is believed to be looking for.
That is a lot of money for a team to put on the books during a season, but if a team believes that player is the difference between a possible World Series run and missing the playoffs, the number becomes far more digestible.
All of this screams the name of one franchise: the New York Yankees.
The Yankees already took a massive dip into the free-agent pool by adding pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, but that won't keep them from bringing in Santana to help fortify their postseason position.
Predicted 2014 Team: New York Yankees
Contract Details: Will sign after the June draft on a four-year, $45 million contract
Kendrys Morales, DH
Kendrys Morales is a proven slugger. In 156 games played last season with the Seattle Mariners, the 30-year-old hit 23 home runs while hitting .277.
The switch hitter can add a spark to any lineup, although that spark isn't big enough to have found him a new home yet.
Now, Morales could wait until after the June draft, as I have predicted with Santana. There will be teams looking to add bats as the postseason approaches. That, however, is not typically as costly as adding a starting pitcher.
In other words, Morales will still have a hard time finding a team to meet his long-term demands, even after he no longer has draft-pick compensation attached to him.
In light of this, I see Morales finding a new team before the season starts. Actually, the team won't be all that new.
In the end, Morales will wind up right back in Seattle. The Mariners could still use another bat in their re-vamped lineup and Morales has proven he can handle Safeco Field.
Predicted 2014 Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Details: Signs prior to the season to a three-year, $27 million contract
I'm going to add something to the contract here. ESPN's Buster Olney reports the financial fate staring at Morales:
Morales will get a little more than that in average annual salary. He'll be forced to take that since it is likely to be his best offer given the market. As for the Mariners, for reasons I detailed above, he is more valuable to them than any other franchise. The Mariners would be more likely to offer that deal to Morales since he has proven he can hit in Safeco.
Stephen Drew, SS
Of the three players mentioned above, Stephen Drew has the worst odds of gaining bargaining power as the season progresses. Yes, he will lose the compensation attached to him, but there isn't going to be a wide, in-season demand for a light-hitting shortstop.
Perhaps a contending team will be looking for an injury replacement, but that isn't as much of a priority for teams as looking for starting pitching or another bat.
I believe this will ultimately lead to Drew cutting his losses and finding a team before the season starts.
The following tweet by WFAN Sports Radio directs us toward which team it will be:
To get this done, both sides would have to sacrifice a bit. The Mets would have to surrender the draft choice and the slotted money that goes with it, and Drew will have to sacrifice the kind of contract he really wants.
Still, this is the most accessible and sensible solution to the current problems for both parties.
Predicted 2014 Team: New York Mets
Contract Details: Signs prior to the season on a one-year, $7.5 million contract
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