Black and Gold X's and O's | An Analytic Review of the Saints Offense in 2008

The 2008 New Orleans Saints were at times an explosive offense, but their short-yardage struggles are both baffling and cause for concern going into 2009.

I believe I have come up with a formula for success that will propel New Orleans towards a successful season.

Limiting the amount of throws to no more than 35 is usually an indicator of a winning team. If a team throws more than 35 passes in a game, the chances of winning are quite low.

I will look game by game at the New Orleans Saints' attempts and effectiveness, both in rushing and passing.

From there, I will give you my formula for offensive balance that head coach Sean Payton would be best suited to follow in 2009.

Week One vs. Tampa Bay—Win

In the opening week victory over Tampa Bay, quarterback Drew Brees threw the ball only 32 times. His efficiency was one key to victory in that game, as he completed 22 of his passes for 343 yards and three touchdowns, with only one interception.  

His completion percentage was above 68 percent. His yards per attempt was 10.72, which is an incredible figure.

And his TD/PA attempt ratio was 10.67, also an incredible figure. The TD/Completion figure was even more impressive at 7.33.

If a QB is throwing for a touchdown every seven completions, you're going to be successful.

The rushing numbers are good, but not great. The Saints had 24 attempts for 103 yards and zero touchdowns. However, an average of 4.3 yards per attempt is considered good in the NFL.

Week Two @ Washington—Loss

The Redskins game was one of the most disappointing games of the season. The Saints had a lead in the fourth quarter, which they eventually coughed up.

Brees was not nearly as efficient as he was the week before.

Brees was 22-of-33 for 216 yards and one TD with two interceptions. His 66 percent completion rate was good, but his yards per attempt—6.54—was mediocre at best. His yards per completion—a little less than 10—was average.

And the one touchdown for 33 attempts is nothing spectacular. Neither is the one interception per 17.5 attempts.

The Saints' inability to run the ball was highlighted by a mere 55 yards on 19 attempts with one touchdown.

It was surprising to even have a lead in the fourth quarter with such a poor effort on the ground.

With a horrific average of 3.0 per attempt, the only bright spot was the one touchdown.

Week Three @ Denver—Loss

Don't blame Drew Brees for the loss to Denver.

He completed 39 of 48 for 421 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions.

He almost willed the team to victory all by his lonesome. His yards per attempt—8.77—was very respectable. But truthfully, it's too many attempts.

The Saints produced three touchdowns on the ground with 24 carries for 88 yards. 

The yards per attempt is not even four, but one touchdown for every eight carries is very good. It made up for Brees' one touchdown in 48 attempts.

In all, it was a tremendous offensive showing, but defense and kicking were the main problem in this loss.

Week Four vs. San Francisco—Win

The Week Four spanking of the 49ers was one of Brees' better games on the season.

He was 25-of-35 for 363 yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. His completion percentage was 71.4. His yards per attempt was 10.37. And the touchdown-to-attempts ratio of 11.67 was very good. Also, three touchdowns per every 8.33 completions is outstanding.

The running game was OK in this game, with 31 attempts for 105 yards and one touchdown. While the yards-per-attempt was 3.38, the one touchdown made up for it a bit. The best part is 31—the number of attempts.

It was the highest number to that point in the season, and played a large role in the win.

Week Five vs. Minnesota—Loss

This game still brings back painful memories. I'm sure every Saints fan is still groaning when they think of this game. I know I still am.

Brees seemed to lose some of his focus as he performed well below his normal effectiveness.

He was 26-of-46 (56.5 completion percentage). The yardage total was 330, and was accompanied by just one TD to two interceptions.

His 7.17 yards per attempt number was nothing spectacular. The two interceptions came at inopportune times. All in all, it was a frustrating game for Brees.

And he wasn't helped by his running game.

The Saints carried the ball only 19 times for a season-low (at the time) 53 yards, with zero touchdowns. The Saints' 2.78 yards per attempt was egregious.

It's almost impossible to win a game that way, yet they almost did.

Week Six vs. Oakland—Win

A fire was lit under Brees in the Week Six win over Oakland.

He was 26-of-30 for 320 yards and three TDs. That is good for an 86.67 completion percentage. His yards per attempt was 10.67.

Brees had three touchdowns in 30 attempts, which averages to about one TD for every 10 attempts.

Those statistics are incredible.

The running game performed better as well.

The Saints' 32 attempts for 115 yards and a TD is nothing to write home to mom about. While that's only a 3.59 yards-per-carry ratio, the number of attempts was the exciting part.

Week Seven @ Carolina—Loss

It didn't take the Saints long to fall into their old habits. In fact, it only took one game.

After the best offensive game of the season came the worst.

Brees threw for 21-of-39 for 231 yards with zero TDs and one interception.

The 5.92 yards per attempt was Brees' worst mark of the season.

The running game was more efficient, with 22 carries for 115 yards (5.22 yards per  attempt) and one touchdown. That's still not enough attempts to win, though.

Week Eight vs. San Diego—Win

This was another good rebound game for the Saints offense.

Brees was 30-of-41 (73.1 percent) for 339 yards and three TDs. Brees threw for 8.27 yards per attempt. More importantly, he threw zero interceptions and had a touchdown pass for every 12.5 throws.

The running game was better as well. The Saints had 25 attempts for 96 yards with two TDs for one of the more efficient games to this point in the year. The Saints' 3.84 yards per carry was not great, but wasn't horrible, especially with two TDs.

If the Saints had 25 rushing attempts per game, then they could be a more efficient team.

Week 10 @ Atlanta—Loss

This was one of the least efficient outings of the season for Brees. He threw 58 times, and only completed 31 of those. His 422 yards made his yards per attempt number a less than average 7.27.

And his three interceptions in 58 attempts (one per 19.33) is not ideal. Plus, two TDs for 58 throws is not Brees-esque.

The Saints' 15 carries for 95 yards is good (6.33 yards an attempt), but the limited number of carries means this was still a poor running game overall. And the lack of TDs hurts as well.

Of course, these numbers are skewed because they had to throw in order to get back in the game.

Week 11 @ Kansas City—Win

If you haven't noticed the trend yet, I don't know what it's going to take to wake you up. One good week, one bad week, one good week, and so on. Well, this was a good week.

Brees was a much more efficient 25-for-36 (69.4 percent) for 266 yards (7.38 per attempt). The per-attempt number isn't his best, but considering the way he had been playing (except for the San Diego game), let's give him a break. His one TD/one interception game isn't great, but acceptable.

Not a bad bounce-back week for Mr. Brees.

He was also aided by an efficient running game—25-for-105 with two TDs. The 4.2 yards per attempt and two touchdown performance made this one of the better rushing games of the season.

Week 12 vs. Green Bay—Win

Hey, they put back-to-back games together for once...(Bronx Cheer follows).

Brees had his second most efficient game of the season. This time he was 20 of 27 (74 percent) for 323 yards and four TDs with only one pick.

This was his best yards-per-attempt game, at 11.96. His one TD per 6.75 attempts was the best as well. The only thing stopping this from being his most efficient game was the one interception, and a lower completion percentage than in the Oakland game.

The running game was not very efficient, but did a good job of getting in the end zone. It ended the night 26 carries for 98 yards and three TDs.

Most of this belonged to Pierre Thomas.

Nonetheless, 3.77 yards per carry is not horrible when you are so efficient throwing the football. Also, one touchdown for every 8.67 carries is quite good.

Week 13 @ Tampa Bay—Loss

Another disappointing game, again, after a good performance.

Brees was 25-for-47 for 296 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

The running game was its least efficient self of the season, 18 carries for 44 yards (2.44 yards per carry). And it never got in the end zone.

Week 14 vs. Atlanta—Win

As was generally the case, the Saints offense responded quite well. Brees was 18-of-32 for 230 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Again, efficient with fewer than 35 throws.

Add to it a running game that managed 184 yards in only 28 attempts (6.57), along with a touchdown. No wonder the Saints won this game.

Week 15 @ Chicago—Loss

Chicago has been the place of death for the Saints season for three years running now. In 2008, Brees was OK.

He completed 24-of-43 passes for 232 yards with two TDs and two interceptions.

The running game almost got its treasured 4.0 yards per carry mark, but fell just shy (3.87) as they had 31 carries for 120 yards and one touchdown. 

This is one of the games where the running game outperformed Drew Brees.

Week 16 @ Detroit—Win

I'm almost embarrassed including this game in this, since it was basically an automatic win. Nonetheless, it is the NFL, and the data would be skewed if I did not.

This was another very balanced effort as Brees threw 40 times, completing exactly 75 percent (30) of his passes.

On his way to 351 yards, he threw two TD passes, and none of his attempts ended up in the arms of Lions defenders.

His 8.78 yards per attempt is good. This was probably his third-best game of the season.

The running game also looked good. This was its most efficient game of the season, as it scored four times on 27 carries (one every 6.75). The 184 yards made the yards-per-carry number 6.81.

I would say the game against Atlanta was more impressive, though, because of the quality of opponent.

Week Seventeen vs. Carolina—Loss

This game is another I would like to throw out, as Sean Payton had no intention of staying balanced in this game. He just wanted to get Brees the passing-yardage record. The team almost won the game, despite Drew throwing the ball 49 times.

Brees completed more than 60 percent of his passes (30 completions) for 386 yards with four TDs and only one interception.

The Saints' 11 runs for 50 yards is almost 5.0 yards per carry, but it's tough to win when you only run the football 11 times.

Give credit to Brees and company for being so efficient in the passing game.

In the eight games the Saints won, they threw the ball 273 times. That's 34.125 per game.

In the eight they lost, they threw it 363 times. That is 45.375 times per game.

An 11 passes-per-game difference in wins and losses seems to be a big difference. I've already indicated that Brees was much more efficient when he threw the ball less. This seems to indicate the Saints need to attempt to keep the pass attempts at or below 35 per game.

As far as the running game goes, in the eight wins, 218 runs were tried. That's good for 27.25 per game. In the eight losses, the number was 159, or 19.875 (let's say 20).

The Saints should focus on throwing the ball no more than 35 times per game and running it upwards of 25 times per game. If a team can do that, they are likely to win enough games to make the playoffs.

Geaux Saints!