Fantasy Trade Target: Matt Cain

For the past few seasons Matt Cain has been regarded as an above average pitcher who was saddled with terrible luck.  Despite posting ERAs of 3.77 and 3.65 over the past two seasons, he managed just 15 victories versus 30 defeats.  It seemed like he consistently pitched well, but the victories were a rarity instead of the norm.

This season he has seemingly put it all together, with seven wins to go along with a stellar line across the board.  Let’s take a look at the numbers:

7 Wins
71.1 Innings
2.27 ERA
1.32 WHIP
53 Strikeouts (6.99 K/9)
29 Walks (3.66 BB/9)
.285 BABIP

First of all the ERA and WHIP just don’t seem to mesh for me, and that’s because he’s currently maintaining a strand rate of 87.6 percent.  People consider the average strand rate to fall between 70 and 72 percent, so it seems highly unlikely that he can maintain this type of number for an extended period of time.

Consider his rates from the previous two seasons:

• 2007 - 72.9 percent
  
• 2008 - 75.3 percent
  

Then, consider that he currently leads the major leagues (Brett Myers was second at 86.1 percent).  Throw in the fact that only four pitchers were able to maintain a LOB% of better than 80 percent last season, with Johan Santana leading the way at 82.6 percent.  Between 2006 and 2007, only one pitcher bettered 80 percent.

Needless to say, there is going to be a regression coming sooner or later and that ERA is going to balloon.  I’m not suggesting that he’s going to increase all the way to 4.00, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish right around where he has been the past two seasons.

The WHIP is likely to hang around right where it currently is.  His walks are consistent with where he’s been in the past (his career BB/9 is 3,78).  While his BABIP is slightly low, it’s not a completely unbelievable number and one that he potentially could maintain.

He’s striking out batters at a slightly lower rate then he has previously, but it is a negligible difference.  I don’t see a significant increase coming that will offset the drop in ERA I’m expecting.

Given the Giants offense, if he does give up more runs, his wins potential is going to plummet.  Thus far he’s won seven of his first 11 starts, but the odds are that he struggles to get victories sooner or later.

When you have a pitcher like this, I am completely in favor of selling high.  Let’s see what you may be able to get for him (these are people I’ve seen him dealt for, straight up, who I would endorse):

• James Shields
• Nick Markakis
• Jonathan Papelbon
• Brian McCann
• Carlos Pena

Some of those may be a bit of a stretch, but why not shoot for the moon when you have a pitcher who has produced the way Cain has thus far this season?  If offered something even close to one of those five players, I wouldn’t hesitate pulling the trigger.

What do you think?  Is Cain someone you’d be willing to sell?  If so, what would you want to get?

If you liked this Trade Target, make sure to check out the previous one on Ben Zobrist at http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=2816