Qualifying Analysis: Can Saturday Wings Fly Vettel To Sunday Victory?

The grid is set, the weights are in, and all that's left is the pre-race guessing game before the Turkish Grand Prix. Follow along for an analysis of each team's chances heading into race day in Istanbul.

Red Bull:

Sebastian Vettel P1, 1:28:316, 649.5 kg

Mark Webber P4, 1:28.613, 656.0 kg

Sebastian Vettel showed once again why he should not be counted out of the championship, taking pole by 0.105s over Jenson Button with a flawless lap. The extra time spent on the double-decker diffuser by Adrian Newey and the RBR design team seems to have paid off, as the RB5 has been perfectly balanced and very fast all weekend.

Vettel is carrying slightly less fuel than his competitors, approximately 6 kilos, so we should see him stopping earlier than Button, Barrichello, or Webber; however, Vettel's pace in the opening laps of the races thus far has been second to none, and with a lighter load of fuel, look for him to build a gap on the Brawns.

Vettel's stumbling point this year has been tire management; he grained his rears so badly in Monaco that he was forced to stop early, and in the heat of Istanbul, graining is sure to be an issue with the soft-compound tires.

Webber put in another of the solid qualifying performances he has come to be known for, barely missing 3rd place behind Barrichello. Though he will be starting on the dirty side of the grid on equal fuel with the Brawns, Webber has made good starts throughout the season, and if Button's starting problems rear their head again, look for Red Bull to be running 1-2 on the first lap.

Webber has also shown an uncanny ability to read the unfolding outcome of a race and make on-the-fly strategy calls that have jumped him up the order, his 3rd place in Barcelona being the best example. Webber will be pushing the Brawns hard and looking to capitalize on any mistake; he will be one to keep an eye on, and will be a strong podium threat on Sunday.

Brawn GP

Jenson Button P2, 1:28.421, 655.5 kg

Rubens Barrichello P3, 1:28.579, 652.5 kg

Jenson Button's pole streak was brought to an end in Turkey, but he will be looking to make up that lost tenth to Vettel on Sunday. Button was another driver who hardly put a wheel wrong through all three qualifying sessions, holding back in Q1 and Q2 before putting in a lap that only Vettel could beat to decisively take second on the grid.

The Brawn mechanics seem to have solved whatever issue kept them out of the top 5 in practice; on a track that Button has repeatedly claimed as his favorite and in hot conditions that will favor his smooth, tire-conserving style, he will be a strong bet for victory.

Though he will start on the front row, Button could be at a slight disadvantage on the dirty side; his standing starts this year have not been the best on the grid, especially in Spain, and with Webber's Red Bull and the KERS-equipped Ferraris of Massa and Räikkönen just behind him, Button may have more to worry about than simply getting past Vettel.

Barrichello cited slower traffic as the reason why his Q2 and Q3 hot laps were not faster, and indeed, he appeared to get few clean laps throughout the session. Nevertheless, with a lighter fuel load than his teammate, it does raise questions as to why Barrichello has not been quite as fast as his championship-leading teammate.

Tires may be one culprit; Barrichello has not shown the same ability to conserve his rear tires as competitors such as Button and Räikkönen, as we saw in Monaco, and he may be another driver who runs into similar issues in Turkey. Nevertheless, Barrichello is always a threat in a good car, and he will be waiting to take advantage of any misstep by either Vettel or Button.

Toyota

Jarno Trulli P5, 1:28.666, 652.0 kg

Timo Glock P13, 1:27.795 (Q2), 689.0 kg

Toyota have made something of a return to form in Turkey after a disastrous Monaco GP, with Jarno Trulli looking very good around Istanbul, putting in several fast laps en route to 5th on the grid. Istanbul's many fast corners seem to suit the Toyota chassis much better than the slow hairpins of Monaco, and Trulli has backed it up with a solid and consistent weekend.

Though he is lighter than the four cars in front of him save Vettel, Trulli looks to be set for a solid points finish on Sunday, and could luck into a podium if there is a safety car or significant mistake by the front-runners.

Timo Glock was openly disappointed with his Saturday performance however, only able to manage 13th on the grid after a torrid Q2 session. Glock reported major oversteer on the soft-compound option tires, and admitted to making a mistake in the final sector on his flying lap during Q2.

Glock has been uncharacteristically slower than his teammate all weekend, and though he has shown himself to be a better racer than qualifier, he will have a difficult race ahead of him.

Ferrari

Kimi Räikkönen P6, 1:28.815, 658.0 kg

Felipe Massa P7, 1:28.858, 654.0 kg

Ferrari has shown that their resurgence in Monaco was no fluke, looking good all weekend, getting both cars into Q3, and taking a well-deserved 6th and 7th on the grid. Räikkönen appeared to have the upper hand in Q3 after setting several quick laps in the first two sessions, but noted that both cars had trouble getting heat into the tires during the opening laps of each session.

Räikkönen could be an outside threat for a podium this weekend, having qualified heavier than anyone ahead of him. Kimi has always been good around Istanbul, having won the inaugural race in 2005, and will be looking to make the most of his KERS advantage to gain positions at the start.

Massa will also be looking to charge to the front, though he has openly admitted that he has little chance of making it four wins in a row in Istanbul. Massa was very fast in Saturday practice, Q1, and Q2, but reported that race fuel threw the car out of balance and caused heavy oversteer, relegating the Brazilian to 7th. On a lighter load of fuel than his teammate, Massa will be hoping for fourth, at best.

Renault

Fernando Alonso P8, 1:29.075, 644.5 kg

Nelson Piquet Jr. P17, 1:28.582 (Q1), 689.6 kg

Alonso made the best of an inconsistent Renault, managing no higher than 8th on the grid on the lightest fuel load in the field. After barely squeaking through Q2, light fuel was the only factor that kept Alonso from bringing up the rear of Q3, and he openly admitted that the car lacked pace. Alonso has shown an ability to perform better than the car should however, and he may yet manage to slip into the points on Sunday.

Nelson Piquet Jr.'s day ended in Q1, when a brake problem caused him to spin off the track. It is unlikely that he would have improved much on his 17th position however, and will be relying on a very heavy fuel load to take him past earlier-stopping competitors.

Williams

Nico Rosberg P9, 1:29.191, 660 kg

Kazuki Nakajima P12, 1:27.629 (Q2), 680.4 kg

Another somewhat lackluster qualifying for Williams, with Rosberg's heavy fuel load relegating him to 9th on the grid, while Nakajima was unable to escape Q2 and will start 12th. Rosberg reported slight understeer on a car that looked quite nervous from the TV shots in some areas of the circuit, but claimed that starting on the clean side of the grid would be a usable advantage for him.

Nakajima reported the same issues with the option as several other drivers, and was unable to get the balance he desired on the car.

BMW Sauber

Robert Kubica P10, 1:29.357, 664 kg

Nick Heidfeld P11, 1:27.521 (Q2), 681.5 kg

BMW Sauber are another team for whom the double diffuser seems to have paid dividends despite not running KERS this weekend, with both cars running very well in qualifying, and Kubica making it into Q3 for the first time in several weeks.

Like the Toyotas, the F1.09 seems much better suited to a circuit composed of fast corners than a slow course like Monaco, and both drivers' comments backed this assertion up. Kubica reported being happy with BMW's improvement, and was confident of improving on his qualifying position.

Heidfeld felt that his car was fast enough to make it into Q3, but was blocked by traffic on his final lap in Q2. Heidfeld cited his run into the points from 13th in Barcelona as proof that the BMWs were capable of moving forward during the race, and we should look for at least one of them to score points on Sunday.

McLaren

Heikki Kovalainen P14, 1:28.207 (Q2), 665 kg

Lewis Hamilton P16, 1:28.318 (Q1), 686.5 kg

McLaren's rapid fall down the grid continued in Istanbul, where Heikki Kovalainen barely made it into Q2, and Lewis Hamilton was unable to post a lap quick enough to get out of Q1. The defining characteristic of the MP4-24 this weekend has been a complete lack of stability through the high-speed corners.

There was no greater example of this trait than the sight of Lewis Hamilton's car visibly twitching through the quadruple-apex Turn 8, the reigning world champion later saying that McLaren "should have scrapped this car a long time ago." Though McLaren showed good form in the early part of the season, their aero upgrades appear to have had the opposite effect, and Hamilton has struggled mightily because of it.

Heikki Kovalainen had an only slightly better session, making it into Q2 and ending up 14th ahead of his teammate and Force India's Adrian Sutil. Kovalainen reported having almost no grip through the fast corners, and that the car seemed to lose performance as the track rubbered in. Both McLaren drivers will be facing a tough Sunday.

Force India

Adrian Sutil P15, 1:28.391 (Q2), 668.5 kg

Giancarlo Fisichella P19, 1:28.717 (Q1), 688.5 kg

Force India continued their baby steps towards the mid-field in Turkey, and showed that their comparatively stellar performance in Monaco wasn't quite a fluke. Adrian Sutil looked particularly good throughout Q1, and though unexpected, was very happy to make into Q2, especially after the team fixed some small problems on the car. Sutil has looked particularly good on track in the past few races, and he can take pride in out-qualifying both his teammate and the reigning world champion.

Fisichella looked to be on a good lap at the end of Q1, but was unfortunately caught out by the yellow flag for Nelson Piquet's spin at the end of Q1, and was unable to improve on his earlier time, leaving him in 19th. Though Fisichella is once again on the back row, both Force Indias were able to improve significantly on their qualifying positions in Monaco, and doing so again in Istanbul is not out of the question.

Scuderia Toro Rosso

Sebastien Buemi P18, 1:28.708 (Q1), 686.5 kg

Sebastien Bourdais P20, 1:28.918 (Q1), 701 kg

STR had a forgettable qualifying in Istanbul, with Buemi only marginally faster than his more experienced teammate. After Bourdais's first point of 2008 in Monaco, falling so far back will be hard to swallow.

Buemi reported difficulty getting heat into the tires, and Bourdais reported similar problems, with both drivers experiencing a high degree of graining. STR have not benefited from the suite of upgrades that their sister team has enjoyed, and as the only team not running some form of double diffuser, they look to be on the back foot for the coming races.