Liver's 2007 AFC Preview: Chargers Thinking Super Bowl or Bust in San Diego

If only I put this much effort into anything other than drinking, whoring, and football...I might have been someone.

AFC East — Patriots anyone?

1. New England Patriots (12-4)

The Patriots' primary reasons for NOT being able to hang on to a seemingly insurmountable halftime lead against the Colts in last season’s AFC Championship: receivers that couldn’t catch the ball, and age in the linebacking corps.

So what do they do in the offseason?

Just pick up FOUR receivers, including malcontent, Randy Moss and Donté Stallworth, as well as LB Adalius Thomas.

Those pickups, along with the steady eye of the prick known as Bill Belichick and the steady arm of Tom Brady, make New England a formidable opponent for anyone.

Games are not won on paper, though, and the Patriots defense will already be missing two key leaders (safety Rodney Harrison, suspension; lineman Richard Seymour, injury) for at least five to six weeks. 

Moss has been sidelined by an undisclosed leg injury, believed to be a strained hamstring, and did not play in any of New England's four preseason contests.  Along with Moss, the Patriots are also gambling on another player with character issues to contribute—first-round draft pick S Brandon Meriweather from Miami.

CB Asante Samuel ended his holdout but missed all of camp, so how game ready he is remains to be seen. Still, he has the talent to be a top-five corner.

Much will be expected from Laurence Maroney in his first full season as the Pats' feature running back—and he must stay healthy, which he wasn’t last year.

Injuries, lack of chemistry, and underperformance are the only factors that can derail this team. 



2. New York Jets (8-8)

Last season the Jets, under first year coach Eric Mangini, were one of the surprises in the AFC, finishing 10-6 and reaching the playoffs.

It will not be nearly as easy to duplicate that success this season.

First of all, their schedule is much tougher than last year’s AND they play in the same division as the Patriots. Second, QB Chad Pennington’s job is anything but safe under Mangini’s watch, and he will have to prove that last season’s injury-free play was no fluke. 

There’s no Curtis Martin, but the Jets countered by picking up Thomas Jones from the Bears.

The main weakness for the Jets, as it was last season, is defense—particularly against the run (the Jets were 24th against the run last year) and at corner, where the Jets went through four starters on the right side alone.

First round pick Darrelle Revis was rated the best corner in the draft, but he will have to make an immediate impact.

The Jets should be in the Wild Card hunt, but they need more pieces on defense before they can challenge the Pats for division supremacy.

 

3. Buffalo Bills (5-11)

This team just can’t catch a break.

Despite playing the toughest schedule in the league last season, the Bills were 7-9 and lost five games by a field goal or less.

J.P. Losman improved his play and the defense was stingy as always. Then, in typical Bills fashion, they lost corner Nate Clements and middle linebacker London Fletcher-Baker in free agency, and traded running back Willis McGahee and linebacker Takeo Spikes.

Their 11 defensive starters average two years of NFL experience. Did I mention they play in the same division as the Patriots?

The double running threat of rookie Marshawn Lynch and Anthony Thomas should help open the offense, and Lee Evans is one of the better wide receivers you never hear about. Until that defense matures, though, this team isn’t going anywhere.

 

4. Miami Dolphins (3-13)

Speaking of not going anywhere.

The Dolphins had a brutal offseason, watching Nick Saban jump ship to Alabama and cutting ties with QBs Culpepper and Harrington. They brought in Trent Green from Kansas City, but how much has he got left?

Green may not have fully recovered from last season's devastating concussion, and given the Dolphins' woes on the offensive line, Green will be lucky not to have another two or three.

Tell me again why they passed on Brady Quinn? Ted Ginn Jr. might make a good receiver one day, but don’t expect it this year—especially coming off a foot injury. 

The reliable defense,led by Jason Taylor, is still capable of getting stops, but age is a concern—and the addition of hotheaded, undisciplined nine-year linebacker Joey Porter will not be the answer. The defense’s liability remains a big-play prone secondary.

Cam Cameron was brought in for his offensive expertise but expect this season to be just offensive period. Oh, did I mention they play in the same division as the Patriots?

 

AFC North — A race to watch.

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

At 13-3, the Ravens cruised into last year's playoffs with a bye and STILL looked old and tired against the Colts.

Nine of the team's 22 starters are 30 or older, including critical players like Steve McNair, Ray Lewis, Derrick Mason, and Samari Rolle.

The addition of Willis McGahee should improve what had become a predictable run game with Jamal Lewis.  If TE Todd Heap remains Baltimore's only receiving threat, it’s going to be a long season for new offensive coordinator Rick Neuheisel.

The key to this team’s success or failure lies with the aging warrior McNair.  He can’t be expected to play all 16 games, and showed his age in the playoffs last year when the Ravens offense could only come up with two field goals against the Colts.

If McNair goes down for any sustained amount of time this season, so does the Ravens offense.

The defense will still be a destructive takeaway machine, but without help from the offense, the Ravens won't get any further than they did last year.

 

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

Last season, the Bengals had to win just one of their last three games to clinch a playoff spot.

They went 0-3.

Off the field, meanwhile, they had nine players keeping the Cincinnati police blotter full.

 The offense, led by QB Carson Palmer and one of the best receiving corps in football, is capable of running anyone off the field. The porous defense—ranked 30th overall last season—will keep opponents in games.

How much that D improves will determine how far the Bengals go. Even a small improvement could win them the division. 

 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

Bill Cowher is out; Mike Tomlin is in as head coach.

That means a new offense—which means Ben Roethlisberger MUST cut down on his league-leading 23 picks from last year.

Big Ben can't be as tentative in the pocket as he was last year coming off his motorcycle accident and appendectomy. His offensive line, which gave up 46 sacks last year, will have to help him out.

That won’t be easy—especially given the fact that the best man on the line, left guard Alan Faneca, has publicly said that knowing he won’t be back in a Steelers uniform next year will make him cautious about taking chances with his body on the field.  

Willie Parker and Hines Ward are solid number-ones at running back and wide receiver, respectively, but Santonio Holmes will need to show improvement in order to take some heat off of Ward.

The big question on defense will be in the secondary, especially the corner positions. Troy Polamalu is the NFL’s best safety, but if the corners continue to give up big plays as they did last year, it won't matter. 

 

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

As a Dallas Cowboys fan, I'd just as soon see Cleveland go 0-16 this year...so as to make their number one pick next year all the more tasty.

Picking up left tackle Joe Thomas and QB Brady Quinn in the first round of the 2007 draft was a huge step forward for this franchise. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to save coach Romeo Crennel’s job.

Quinn has provided hope for Browns fans, but don’t expect to see him under center until midseason. The pickup of Jamal Lewis won’t be enough to boost this offense, as Lewis' best years are behind him and his running style is predictable to say the least. 

Braylon Edwards needs to catch the easy passes that he dropped so frequently last year, and Kellen Winslow Jr. needs to stay healthy for this offense to put up points.

The defense regressed last year and needs to stay healthy—particularly at cornerback, where opposing teams knew to attack on third-and-long situations. Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley and safety Sean Jones need to continue their strong showing from last year in order for this defense to improve.

This team has talent on both sides of the ball, but it's young, underdeveloped...and in a brutal division.

 

AFC South — Exodus or no, the Colts are still dominant.

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

The defending champs felt the sting of free agency this offseason.

Eight players are gone, including CB Nick Harper, LB Cato June, DT Montae Reagor, RB Dominic Rhodes, WR Brandon Stokley, and LT Tarik Glenn (retired).

Don’t expect the Colts to repeat as Super Bowl champs after losing key players like that—but their offense will still make them a factor in the AFC. Adding Anthony Gonzales in the draft should make the O that much more potent.

Unfortunately, the defense will be a liability, as it was throughout the regular season last year.

The Colts gave up a league-worst 173 yards on the ground per game in 2006, which limited the ability of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to rush the passer. How they were able to flip the switch and stop the run during the playoffs remains a mystery.

Safety Bob Sanders proved that he was the heart and soul when his return sparked the Super Bowl run. His health will determine how successful the secondary can be...and he's missed 24 of 48 regular season games the last three years, so it's anything but a given.

Adam Vinatieri can still win games with his clutch kicking, but the defense will ultimately decide how far this team goes.

 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

The Jags had to be the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the league last year—they'd play well against top-tier teams and then lose the next week to the Houston Texans.

A season-long QB controversy has been solved, with David Garrard in as the starter and Byron Leftwich released. The decision puts pressure on both Garrard and head coach Jack Del Rio.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew had a breakout rookie year, and should be complemented again by Fred Taylor as long as he’s healthy. The problem on offense, though, is lack of big plays from the receivers.

Reggie Williams led the team with 52 receptions and four TDs. Those aren’t number-one receiver numbers. Matt Jones is quickly wearing out his welcome, and this is a crucial year for him to play up to his talent level. 

The defense started out well in 2006, but was hit with injuries and inconsistent play as the season wore on.

The defensive line, led by the dominant tackle tandem of Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, must continue to stuff the run.  The secondary gets a boost with the addition of first-round draft pick S Reggie Nelson, and CB Rashean Mathis should continue to improve.

The Jags have the talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but have to prove that they can play consistent football if they're to be a factor in the AFC.

 

3. Houston Texans (6-10)

How’s that Mario Williams pick working for you?

The Texans front office conceded a draft blunder that will haunt them for years to come by cutting ties with David Carr and trading for Falcons backup Matt Schaub in the offseason. Schaub has already made an impact on the team’s attitude, something Carr failed to do in his four years.

It won’t get them to the playoffs, but it should be enough to win a few more games.

André Johnson is still a deep threat, and should quickly become Schaub’s best friend. RB Ahman Green still has some tread on the tires, but will have to rely on one of the league’s worst offensive lines to provide openings. 

The defensive line, led by Williams and last year’s defensive rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans, will need to continue to grow if they're to put consistent pressure on opposing QBs.

The gaping hole is still the secondary, where cornerbacks Dunta Robinson and Demarcus Faggins and safeties C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl have been unable to produce any game-changing plays.

This will be a better Texans team, but it’s still a long way away from respectability.

 

4. Tennessee Titans (4-12)

After the team started 0-5, rookie QB Vince Young stepped in and led the Titans to an 8-3 record—within a win of the playoffs.

Young showed the promise and leadership he displayed at Texas, and despite his poor statistics proved he can win in the NFL. Unfortunately for Vince, you can’t do it alone in the pros, and the Titans lost key offensive players in WR Drew Bennett, WR Bobby Wade, and RB Travis Henry this offseason.

The suspension of Pacman Jones for the season, who won two games by himself with his amazing return skills, will hurt. The defense should be better against the run, but with a severe lack of talent on offense, 2007 season will be a step back rather than a step forward.  

AFC West — Chargers anyone?

1. San Diego Chargers (12-4)

San Diego’s season ended prematurely last January when careless mental mistakes and unlucky bounces led to their unraveling against the Patriots.

That loss cost Marty Schottenheimer his job, and gave Norv Turner one last shot at a head coaching position.

Turner, who has a less-than-stellar record as a head coach, will be under heavy pressure this season to get his team to the Super Bowl. The Chargers return 18 starters from last year, including MVP LaDainian Tomlinson.

QB Philip Rivers exceeded expectations in 2006, but will have to continue his growth at a rapid pace. TE Antonio Gates is the biggest receiving threat; his size demands double teams, opening things up for LT and the other receivers. 

The defense is still a 3-4, but new coordinator Ted Cottrell is not as aggressive in calling blitzes as former coordinator/new Dallas Cowboys coach Wade Phillips.

Shawne Merriman is the best pass rusher in the game, and shouldn't see any drop-off unless he has another steroid “accident.” Quentin Jammer finally fulfilled his top-10 draft pick promise last year, but regressed in the New England game.

Turner doesn’t need to tinker with ANYTHING here—what he does need to do is make sure the mental errors that cost the team a trip to the AFC Championship game don’t hurt them again.

2. Denver Broncos (10-6)

The Broncos had an emotional offseason with the passing of teammates Darrent Williams and Damien Nash. Such tragedies can sometimes instill the “Let’s do it for Johnny” mentality that drives a team to greatness.

This is still Broncos football, so the running game will again be the focus. The Broncos picked up Travis Henry in the offseason, who they're hoping can be the workhorse they've lacked since trading Clinton Portis.

Jay Cutler will have the QB reins from beginning to end, and his growth will determine whether Denver makes the playoffs. Cutler showed some flashes last year after being inserted with five games left in the season, but I'm not yet convinced that he can deliver.

For some reason, Cutler has a permanent look of “Duh” on his face—which worries me when he has to make split-second decisions. 

The Broncos also added Brandon Stokley at receiver, but he'll need to show he has recovered from an Achilles injury. Rod Smith isn’t getting any younger, but can still catch the ball and always makes smart decisions.

The defense will miss the leadership of linebacker Al Wilson, who was released in the offseason due to neck problems. The defensive line needs the most help; the drafting of Jarvis Moss is a start. Champ Bailey remains the best corner in the game, and will be complemented on the other side by Dré Bly.

Two matchups against the Chargers and six road games out of the last nine won't make things easy, but the Broncos should be a factor come January.

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

Brodie Croyle was supposed to take over for Trent Green at QB, but was so awful during the preseason that he lost the to Damon Huard.

Huard played well in Trent Green’s absence last year, but he isn’t the long-term answer.

Larry Johnson will provide a solid running game—but after taking a record number of carries last season, how much of a load can he handle? Add to that a lack of depth at receiver, and this offense is going to have trouble putting points on the board.  

Herm Edwards always emphasizes defense, but with corners Ty Law and Patrick Surtain getting older by the minute, look for teams to attack Kansas City through the air. The Chiefs' main concern has to be a lack of pass rush. They addressed it by signing the Bears' Alfonso Boone, but he won’t be a fix by himself.

The Chiefs will be competitive with Herm “You play to win the game” Edwards on the sideline—but they'll miss the playoffs in a top-heavy division.

 

4. Oakland Raiders (4-12)

When you can’t even sign the number one pick in the draft (QB JaMarcus Russell), you now your franchise is a joke.

Picking up Dante Culpepper on the cheap is a stopgap solution. Look for Josh McCown to come in if Culpepper shows he hasn’t recovered from his injury of two years ago.

The Raiders were the worst offense in the league last year, so it’s hard to imagine them being any more anemic. Picking up Dominic Rhodes from the Colts should help the running game...when he gets back from his suspension for DUI. LaMont Jordan showed last year that he doesn't have the mentality to be a number-one back—and two backs in today's NFL are often better than one.

Left Tackle Robert Gallery is quickly turning into a bust, and needs to show something this season if he wants to keep his job.

Surprisingly, the Raiders defense played exceptionally well under Bob Ryan in 2006. Corners Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington make one of the best cover combos in the league, and linebackers Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison provide a strong presence and natural quickness inside.  

Wild Card games: Indianapolis beat Cincinnati; Baltimore beats Denver
Divisional games: New England beats Baltimore; San Diego beats Indianapolis
Conference Championship: San Diego beats New England
Super Bowl: San Diego beats New Orleans