Breaking Down Pat White: Fantasy Football

Re-printed from www.scfantasyfootball.com

Our very first Breakdown article!  And we're going hard, ladies and gentlemen.  I’m going to tell you how Pat White, second round pick of the Miami Dolphins this season, could end up turning in one of the single greatest fantasy football seasons, ever.  Now, I will go out of my way right now to say how unlikely this is.  In fact, I’ve got a list of assumptions that I’m going to preface this article with.  But this doesn't change how, once again, he could be one of the biggest fantasy players in the history of the game.

 

So here are those assumptions-

 

1)      Multi-position eligibility (or WR eligibility):

 

The ability to play a given player in a number of positions is very rare in fantasy football, but is not unheard of.  The most famous case in recent years was Marques Colston in 2006.  After occasionally filling in as a TE in the preseason, certain fantasy websites (Yahoo!) gave him TE eligibility in spite of the fact he was drafted as a wideout.  Colston turned in a brilliant season, barely missing the Rookie of the Year honors (he lost out to Vince Young) with 1038 yards and 8 TDs.  He only played 14 games (and only started 12) and still edged out Antonio Gates as the top TE in fantasy football. 

 

Another, less-famous example was Chris Cooley in 2005.  After putting in snaps at fullback, he was given RB eligibility. His 774 yards and 7 TDs is not a particularly wild statline for a RB in fantasy football, but Cooley found his way into flex spots in some deeper leagues. 

 

Last (and coincidentally, least) was Marcus Vick.  "The Leg-Stomper" was brought in as an undrafted free agent by the Miami Dolphins in 2006, and was made eligible at both QB (where he played in college) and WR (where he played for the Dolphins) in fantasy.  He was on the active roster only twice that season, and nobody really noticed, even when he was there.

 

For Pat to meet my expectations (potentially), he would need to be eligible at the WR position.  If he ends up only receiving eligibility at QB, then you can just stop reading this.  But right now, precedent suggests he will be eligible for both.

 

2)      Chad Pennington Gets Injured and/or Loses the Starting Job and/or the Dolphins Regularly Use White at QB

 

I’m a fan of Chad Pennington.  I liked him as a Jet and I loved him as a Dolphin.  But a sidelined Chad Pennington is not a particularly outlandish sight.  There are a lot of things that can put him on his ass (and his ass on the bench) for a length of time.

 

Jets fans best remember Pennington twice being driven armpit-first into the turf, tearing his rotator cuff.  Pepper in some ankle sprains and rib cracks and you have a guy who can be safely labeled as an “injury-prone”.  Nobody wants Pennington to get injured (well, no good people do), but we all know that Chad’s more than capable of missing some games.

 

Pennington doesn't necessarily need to get injured to open the door for White, either. If the Dolphins get off to an 0-7-0 start, quickly sealing away any postseason chances early, he could ride the pine just to give the Phins' younger QBs some playing time.

 

As spectacular as he was last season (3600 yards, 19 TDs, 97.4 QB Rating), a repeat is unlikely.  And a repeat in 2010?  Well, that’s getting close to impossible.  Parcells and Sparano know that Chad’s days are numbered, and as important as he was to Miami’s epic 2008 season, Parcells isn’t known for sentimentality.  Pennington is a stopgap. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Finally, even if Pennington somehow remains the Dolphins' top QB, there is plenty of speculation that we will see a lot more of the wildcat from the Miami offense this season.  And, according some people, a WHOLE lot more.  Pat White opens up the passing game in a way Ronnie Brown can't.  If they choose to do something crazy like run the wildcat 20% of the time, White remains relevant.

 

3)      Get to the Point Already!

 

The bottom line with Pat White is that this is a guy that could end up playing at QB in real football, while playing WR in fantasy.  Let’s throw out some hypothetical stat lines. 

 

Let’s say that Pat starts the season out as a WR and gets behind center in the wildcat, and becomes a full time starter at QB half-way through the season.  A hypothetical stat line for such a situation would be something like…

 

1400 yards passing

6 passing TDs

5 INTs

300 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

1 FL

 

That would total 147 fantasy points, and would slip him in as the #15 WR in 2008 in standard-scoring leagues.  What if he takes over at QB for eight weeks and puts up something like…

 

1100 yards passing

5 passing TDs

5 INTs

250 yards rushing

2 rushing TDs

 

…that would yield 96 fantasy points in 8 weeks, or 12 points per game.  12 points per game, by the way, is #6 among WRs in 2008.

 

But still, #6 among WRs over an eight game stretch isn’t close to being one of the best fantasy players of all time, now is it?  So how can he come close to the hype I’ve been giving him?  

 

Well, let’s say Chad Pennington earns IR status before the season even starts, or very early on.  In a situation like this, with an inexperienced Chad Henne as Pennington’s on-paper backup, White could become the starting QB in Miami…and a starting WR in fantasy.  Let’s look at a couple recent examples of young, scramble-capable QBs in their first seasons as starters…2006 Vince Young and 2008 Tyler Thigpen. 

 

Here is Vince Young's 2006 stat line:

 

2199 yards passing

12 passing TDs

13 INTs                                                                        

553 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

 

In the end, he totaled 213 fantasy points. 

 

Tyler Thigpen’s 2008 season looked like this:

 

2608 yards passing

18 passing TDs

12 INTs

386 yards rushing

3 rushing TDs

 

Thigpen finished with 217 fantasy points.  Just for fun, let’s look at Michael Vick, circa 2005:

 

2412 yards passing

15 passing TDs

13 INTs

610 yards rushing

6 rushing TDs

 

231 points by season’s end. 

 

So 213 points for 2006 Young, 217 for 2008 Thigpen and 231 for 2005 Vick. 

 

Keep in mind, these are not jaw-dropping stat lines for a QB, but with the way standard scoring favors quarterbacks, if you inject those stat lines into the 2008 WR rankings, the three of them would stand as the #1, #2, and #4 players at the position.  Larry Fitzgerald (1434, 12 TDs) splits the group up at #3 with 215 points.

 

So what if Pat White puts up a decent stat line for a QB?  Let’s say…

 

3000 yards passing

20 passing TDs

14 INTs

500 yards rushing

7 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

 

That stat line would add up to 276 fantasy points, and would be the second-greatest season fantasy for a WR, ever, and would be just 11 points shy of Randy Moss in 2007.  But even if Pat White puts up a relatively forgettable stat line like…

 

2500 yards passing

13 passing TDs

13 INTs

400 yards rushing

4 rushing TDs

100 yards receiving

6 fumbles

 

...he still puts up 201 fantasy points on the season, putting him right behind Calvin Johnson (#3 WR) in the 2008 rankings.  

 

Long story short, if Pat White ends up playing any considerable amount of time at QB, he instantly becomes a must-start WR. 

 

If you’re in anything resembling a deep league, do not let Pat White go undrafted.  Standard ten-team, three-WR leagues should consider him a late-round upside pick.  There is just too much potential here to let him stay on waivers. 

 

But once again, if he ends up not being WR-eligible, then I just wrote up four pages for nothing.