What to Expect When You're Not Expecting: The 2009 Cincinnati Bengals

Realistic expectations?  During the offseason, when hope springs eternal in 31 other NFL camps, there is no more realistic place to be than the psyche of a Bengals fan.  I have been alive for just over 25 years. 

I have been conscious of caring deeply about this team for probably the past 17.  In those 17 years I have witnessed one playoff game.  In that game our quarterback got his knee destroyed by an ex-Bengal, and Cincinnati lost at home to its most hated rival.  (Yes, we hate the Steelers more than the Browns.)

In our second best season, the Bengals lost three games in a row, when winning one would have gotten us back to the playoffs.  Two of these games were lost on a missed field goal.  In Cincinnati those stomach punches are glory years, those valleys, the peaks.

So what do we expect in 2009?  After a 4-11-1 campaign that featured the most uninspiring and ineffective offense in the league?  What can Cincinnati really expect?  Aside from wailing and gnashing of teeth?

Cynicism aside, the first thing to expect is new blood—lots of it.  Between injuries and free agent departures, the team that played the majority of the games last year is nothing like the team that will (hopefully) play the majority of the games this season— especially on offense.

Two sides of that coin.  Side one: in the NFL, continuity of personnel and system is often more important than talent level, so a ton of new blood is bad.  Side two: the Bengals were terrible last year—maybe worse than their miserable record—so there is nowhere to go but up.

This amount of upheaval is radical even in the tightly salary-capped NFL.  On offense, the 2009 Bengals will have a starting QB, RB, FB, LT, RT, C, LG, and WR who did not start the majority of their games last year.

Luckily, some of these are clear upgrades: Ryan Fitzpatrick to Carson Palmer, Chris Perry to Cedric Benson, Daniel Coats to Jeremi Johnson, Stacy Andrews to Andre Smith.  Yet, with each upgrade is a player who is either brand new to the system or missed more than half the year.  The first given of the Bengals offense is, it will take time.

Another given of the Bengals offense:  Chad OchoCinco, Laveranues Coles, and Chris Henry all have shown the talent to regularly get open down the field.  Carson Palmer, even when he struggles with decision making is arguably the most accurate downfield passer in the league. 

The limiting reagent on this experiment is how much time the offensive line can give the skill position guys.  If the offensive line gels, and is at least average—Cincinnati can still have an explosive (if not terribly consistent) passing attack.

But putting together a whole new effective offensive line, particularly with almost no pro experience at the two tackle spots is a huge if.  An if that makes me much more optimistic about Cincinnati’s chances in 2010 than 2009.

Defensively, there actually is good continuity and talent emerging.  As opposed to the offense where they are reconfiguring the entire machine, the defense is just adding new parts to a group who was coming into its own last season, even with its best players sidelined by injury.

Upon Mike Zimmer’s defense the Bengals can rest their hope for a competitive season.  The team not only has reasonable starters at each position, but reasonable depth, too.  Cincinnatigrabbed Michael Johnson, Rey Maualuga, Tank Johnson, and Roy Williams in the draft and free agency, not to be the saviors, but simply to play their parts. 

In fact, there is a very strong possibility that we’ll see none of those four among the starting eleven.  The talent waiting in the wings on the defensive side of the ball is the best it has been in the Marvin Lewis era.  They finally have a team that could handle the loss of one of its top players and live to fight another day.           

Finally, if the defense is to be an asset this year, maybe the most important move of the entire offseason was the drafting of local boy Kevin Huber to handle the punting duties.  This is not to say that Huber will be the next Lee Johnson, but nobody could be as bad as Kyle Larson. 

The guy simply did not have the leg.  Punting stats and averages certainly don’t tell the whole story, but as bad as these stats are, anecdotally, they do not accurately describe how bad Larson was.  He was last in average yards, and second-to-last in net average.

But, this is my favorite stat.  In 2008, Kyle Larson punted the ball 100 times when no other punter punted more than 90 times.  In spite of that, Larson still had the shortest LONG punt on the year of 57 yards. 

If Cincinnati is to lean heavily on their defense this season, their punting has to be much improved.  And, in that regards, like a lot of other things, there is no where to go but up.

Prediction: 7-9. 3rd AFC North.