UFC Fight Night 33 B/R Staff Main Card Predictions
The UFC is back this weekend with a Fight Night card in Australia featuring a heavyweight scrap between Antonio Silva and Mark Hunt in the main event. It promises to be a fun night with the potential for plenty of knockouts.
Many fans are often somewhat disappointed with the Fight Night cards, but this card is pretty stacked.
Between Silva, Hunt, former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Ryan Bader, Australian fans should be in for a treat.
So strap in, grab a bag of chips and get your reading glasses. Our crack team of Sean Smith, James MacDonald, Craig Amos, Scott Harris and myself, Riley Kontek, will provide you with our picks for this potentially awesome event.
The prelims start at 7pm ET on Fox Sports 2, while the main card kicks off at 9pm ET on Fox Sports 1.
Julie Kedzie vs. Bethe Correia
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Kontek: Long-time MMA vet Julie Kedzie will get herself a good chance of winning a bout with the world's largest organization opposite debuting Brazilian Bethe Correia. Correia is a natural flyweight moving up a weight class to get this opportunity. She is undefeated but hasn't taken on high-quality opposition like Kedzie. Score one for Greg Jackson's camp!
Kedzie, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Kedzie has been around a long time and has fought a lot of quality opponents, many of whom make Bethe Correia look like a novice. Problem is, Kedzie has rarely beaten the top opponents she's faced, so it's hard to justify giving her the edge based on strength of schedule. In fact, I'm going with Correia—I believe she'll grind out a decision and keep her loss column spotless.
Correia, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: It’s hard not to root for Julie Kedzie. She has been around for what seems like decades and thoroughly deserves her spot on the UFC’s roster. However, I have my doubts that she’ll come out on top against the game Bethe Correia. That being said, I’m going to give Kedzie the nod here. Yes, I’m allowing my heart to rule my head.
Correia, Unanimous Decision
Smith: It's been well over two years since Kedzie last had her hand raised. Correia is not nearly as proven as the fighters who have been beating Kedzie, though. While undefeated, Correia is in for a learning experience against a veteran.
Kedzie, Unanimous Decision
Harris: To be honest, I don't know too much about Correia. I think she'll be outclassed against Kedzie, a longtime veteran of the game who has got to be ravenous for her first UFC win.
Kedzie, Unanimous Decision
Dylan Andrews vs. Clint Hester
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Kontek: TUF 17 vet vs. TUF 17 vet. Team Jones vs. Team Jones. The former top pick of Team Jones is taking on the last pick when Clint Hester and Dylan Andrews meet up. Andrews will be on home turf and holds a more well-rounded game. Hester is powerful and athletic, but Andrews is gritty enough to eat some shots and impose his will.
Andrews, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Both fighters own a ton of knockouts, but both are very tough to knock out. It's a tough one to call, but I'm siding with Hester, who I believe is capable of pulling off the upset.
Hester, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: Andrews is probably the more well-rounded fighter, but just barely. Regardless, Hester’s striking should more than make up for any gaps in all-around skill. Based on past performances, the younger Hester possesses enough in the way of defensive wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it. But Andrews is durable, so I won’t be surprised if he toughs it out even if things aren’t going his way.
Hester, Unanimous Decision
Smith: Although Andrews advanced much further in the TUF 17 competition, Hester was handed a tough stylistic matchup early on in the show. Against Andrews, Hester should be able to stand and use his boxing. Neither fighter has lost since appearing on the UFC reality show, but the 27-year-old Hester seems to have a bit more upside than the 34-year-old Andrews. Hester shows more improvement on Friday and takes advantage of being matched up with a fellow striker.
Hester, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris: I was just super impressed with Hester in his violent UFC debut this spring against Bristol Marunde. I really didn't see that coming. I won't be fooled again. Batten down the hatches for a great fight with a tough Andrews, but prepare the check for Hester.
Hester, TKO, Rd. 2
Pat Barry vs. Soa Palelei
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Kontek: This fight comes down to cardio. Soa Palelei is rugged but has a small gas tank. He also has the wrestling chops to exploit Pat Barry's weaknesses on the ground. If he can pace himself and smother Barry, he should be able to win. Otherwise, Barry will outlast his cardio and chop Palelei down with strikes. I'll call the slight upset.
Palelei, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos: At this point it is clear that, despite possessing terrific standup, Barry is vulnerable to the knockout. But even though he is fighting a home run hitter in Palelei, I give him a decisive edge on the feet and suspect that he'll get back in both the win and knockout columns Friday.
Barry, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald: If his career pattern is anything to go by, Barry should get back to his winning ways against Palelei. Superstitious nonsense aside, I do expect Barry to keep the fight standing and earn an early knockout.
Barry, TKO, Rd. 1
Smith: While Palelei has won nine straight fights, he was underwhelming in his UFC re-debut against Nikita Krylov. Barry has hardly been a world-beater in the UFC heavyweight division, but he's picked up multiple knockouts and is always a threat against anyone willing to stand with him. Barry bounced back well from his knockout loss to Lavar Johnson, and I expect he'll do the same following a defeat at the hands of Shawn Jordan.
Barry, TKO, Rd. 1
Harris: Where's the bottom for Pat Barry? Everyone likes him, both in and out of the cage. He's interview gold and guaranteed fireworks in the cage. But he has never proven equal to his fighting promise. After Friday, the free fall continues.
Palelei, TKO, Rd. 2
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Ryan Bader vs. Anthony Perosh
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Kontek: Don't be fooled by Anthony Perosh's latest win, a knockout over Vinny Magalhaes. Magalhaes is a very weak striker and Perosh caught him with a direct blow. Ryan Bader is a better striker and a better wrestler than Magalhaes, something that will spell trouble for the Aussie. Expect Bader to end this one with strikes.
Bader, KO, Rd. 1
Amos: Perosh is a dangerous grappler, and as he demonstrated last time out, he also carries knockout power. But with the standup to outclass Perosh, and the wrestling to stifle his submissions, Bader should take this one without too much difficulty.
Bader, KO, Rd. 1
MacDonald: This is a terrible matchup for Perosh. In order to win this fight, he needs to get it to the ground. Unfortunately, the chances of him taking the fight there are slimmer than a runway model. Bader will undoubtedly connect at some point. When he does, it should be curtains for Perosh.
Bader, KO, Rd. 2
Smith: Perosh's past two wins may have come via knockouts, but the Australian's grappling is his greatest strength. Against an All-American wrestler in Bader, Perosh isn't likely to be scoring any takedowns on Friday. He also won't win a battle of haymakers with Bader, who is one of the harder hitters in the light heavyweight division.
Bader, KO, Rd. 1
Harris: I'm a pitiful mark for a good human interest story. Old Man River Perosh there qualifies. He'll need to seek his next chapter elsewhere, however. Bader by smother.
Bader, Unanimous Decision
Mauricio Rua vs. James Te Huna
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Kontek: Every time I put faith in Mauricio Rua, he lets me down (except for the Chael Sonnen fight—I went with "The American Gangster"). His knees aren't what they used to be, and he is taking on a brute in James Te Huna. Te Huna can exploit the Brazilian's takedown defense and batter him on the ground. If he doesn't, Rua will leg kick and strike from a distance. I may regret it, but I'll go with Shogun.
Rua, Unanimous Decision
Amos: A couple years ago, this one would have been a gimme for Shogun. Not so today. Today, he seems a very fragile and vulnerable version of himself. And fragile and vulnerable are two descriptors that don't mesh well with the kind of power Te Huna wields.
Te Huna, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald: That I even have to give some thought to the outcome of this fight speaks volumes about Shogun’s decline. Too many wars and recurring knee problems have cut short the Brazilian’s career as an elite light heavyweight. Still, he should have enough left in the tank to get past Te Huna.
Rua, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith: Although he's slumping, Rua has really only lost to light heavyweight contenders recently. Te Huna is a dangerous striker, but he has not been well-rounded enough to beat any elite 205'ers. Desperate to get back into the win column, Rua may mix things up more than usual on Friday and capitalize on a significant advantage he'd have over Te Huna on the ground.
Rua, Submission, Rd. 1
Harris: It can't be a good sign that everyone seems to be walking on eggshells here on Shogun's behalf. And he fits the profile of the former champion who's last to see the train coming. And with that said, Te Huna's still a little green. The old dog keeps hunting for a little longer.
Rua, Unanimous Decision
Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva
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Kontek: Antonio Silva has a big head. Mark Hunt doesn't need a big target to land his home run punch. There is a good chance that Bigfoot gets Hunt to the ground and decks him good, but I think Hunt can flip the switch and turn out the lights on the Brazilian.
Hunt, KO, Rd. 1
Amos: Recalling the way Bigfoot put Fedor on his back and beat him up makes me worry that Hunt, a great striker but middling grappler, could be in grave danger. But then I remember that Silva did not successfully take Alistair Overeem away from his strength (striking) and that Hunt survived multiple takedowns from Stefan Struve. I'm going with Hunt.
Hunt, KO, Rd. 1
MacDonald: Despite Hunt’s remarkable run prior to his loss to Junior dos Santos, I still have concerns about his all-around game. I’m not convinced that he’ll be able to remain upright against Bigfoot. If he can somehow keep the fight standing, the fight will be in Hunt’s hands. That’s a pretty big “if,” though.
Silva, Unanimous Decision
Smith: At one point in his career, Hunt lost six in a row due to his inability to defend takedowns and submissions. Over his past five fights, though, Hunt has not been submitted and has only lost to Junior dos Santos. Silva will put Hunt's grappling to the test, but the Brazilian is still looking for his first takedown inside the Octagon and won't be able to stand with "The Super Samoan" long.
Hunt, TKO, Rd. 1
Harris: Silva doesn't strike me as an imminent threat to attend any Nobel Prize ceremonies, but he does strike me as someone who will have the faculties to take advantage of Mark Hunt's nonexistent grappling. There might be some standing exchanges, but eventually Silva will accede to common sense.
Silva, Unanimous Decision
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