BCS Bowl Stock Watch for Week 15
Especially inside the state of Alabama, but even beyond its roaring borders, this past weekend of college football was one that no fan will soon forget.
The Iron Bowl headlined the action, which was expected, but not in a way that anyone could have foreseen. Auburn's walk-off "Kick Six" is a play that will live in college football lore beside moments like Cal's band storming the field.
And that was just the tip of the iceberg.
Upsets, rivalries and thrilling finishes littered the Week 14 schedule, providing fans with a wonderful viewing experience and shaking up the BCS standings in a drastic way.
Who made out the best? Who made out the worst? Let's take a quick look at the wreckage and see where teams now stand.
Stock Up: Ohio State
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Michigan was within one play and two yards of beating rival Ohio State on Saturday, exposing holes in the Buckeye defense and forcing folks to reconsider how the Buckeyes might fare against teams like Florida State.
But all of that, fair or not, is moot.
Ohio State was still the biggest winner of a wild Week 14.
After Auburn beat Alabama, the Buckeyes were officially one of just two remaining undefeated teams from a power conference—an important place to be. The BCS standings reflected that, giving them a sizable lead over Auburn and suggesting that nothing short of an OSU loss would change that.
Urban Meyer's team has spent the whole year worrying about the BCS standings, arguing about its bona fides compared to other title-contending schools.
The first part of that routine is officially a thing of the past. Beat Michigan State on Saturday, and OSU can likely book its ticket to the BCS National Championship Game.
Even so, however, the whole "arguing about its place" thing will not come to an end.
Stock Down: Alabama
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The sky is falling in Tuscaloosa, as it does after every loss the Crimson Tide have suffered during this recent dynasty.
But as quarterback AJ McCarron points out, it's important to look to the future instead of dwelling on the past.
"At a time like this," McCarron said, according to Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated, "People need to realize the sun is going to rise tomorrow." Winning another national title might now be a pipe dream, but there is still much reason to play.
The Crimson Tide are a lock to make a BCS bowl, and they will almost certainly be the top-ranked at-large team in the pool. Even if it's not in Pasadena, their next game will be an important one.
Still, Alabama lost control of its national title destiny this week, and there's not enough time to make up the lost ground. Its stock is definitely down.
Stock Up/Down: Northern Illinois/Fresno State
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NIU and Fresno State have been joined at the hip since early in the season when it became clear that both might be in store for special years.
But only one, at most, would be allowed to crash the BCS party.
Both teams had been perfect until Week 14, throwing punches and swapping places in the polls. The Huskies took a shocking lead in the BCS standings last Sunday, but it was unclear whether that would hold.
Now things are much clearer.
NIU is headed to the MAC Championship Game with its perfect record intact, while Fresno State suffered its first defeat at the hands of David Fales and San Jose State.
The Bulldogs will not play in the BCS this year.
Northern Illinois still has to beat Bowling Green on Saturday, then hold off UCF in the polls or finish No. 14 or higher. If it accomplishes the former, the latter should take care of itself.
Jordan Lynch and company have a much clearer path now than they did this time last week.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Stock Up: Michigan State
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Michigan State has two potential paths to the Rose Bowl—one direct and one more complicated.
If Sparty beats Ohio State in the conference championship game, it will be headed to Pasadena.
But that is nothing new. This team was aware of that prognosis even before Week 14.
The new wrinkle comes via Wisconsin's unexpected loss to Penn State and Auburn's upset of Alabama.
Because of those defeats, Michigan State can probably lose a close game to the Buckeyes this Saturday and still play in the Rose Bowl, since Ohio State would likely be in Pasadena for a much bigger contest.
Even the Capital One Bowl's official Twitter account confirmed that it does not expect the Spartans to be available for selection come next weekend. This team would have to lay a massive egg at Lucas Oil Stadium in order to be left out of the BCS.
Stock Down: Clemson
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Clemson all but buried its BCS chances on Saturday, losing to South Carolina despite acquitting itself well for most of the game.
The Tigers' resume is not particularly bad, as they only have two losses and their assailants have an average BCS ranking of 4.5.
This year, however, there are simply too many qualified teams for this one to sneak in.
Prior to the week, Clemson controlled its own BCS fate.
Even with a decent performance, it ran itself into the ground. That is basically the definition of "Stock Down."
Stock Up: Arizona State
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Arizona State not only looked the part of a BCS contender in Saturday's 58-21 spanking of Arizona, it also put itself in good position to fulfill those dreams.
By beating their in-state rival in Tempe, the Sun Devils ensured that their next game will take place in the same venue.
They will host Stanford in the conference title game, which drastically improves their odds of making the Rose Bowl.
Stanford beat ASU thoroughly in Palo Alto earlier this year, winning 42-28 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score indicated. Still, the Sun Devils are playing at a much higher level now than they were then, and the home-field advantage makes a major difference.
Despite the loss back in September, ASU is favored to win this game and advance to Pasadena. That says all you need to know about the direction of its BCS stock.
Stock Down: South Carolina
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Fair or not, South Carolina's BCS stock actually took a hit—and not a small one, either—in a week where it beat the No. 6 team in America by two touchdowns.
But that is the nature of the beast, especially when a team has two losses.
Had Alabama beaten Auburn on Saturday, the Gamecocks would have all but clinched a spot in the BCS. But because the Crimson Tide lost, so did South Carolina.
Now Alabama will almost certainly claim one of the at-large berths out of the SEC, joining whichever team wins the conference championship in a BCS bowl.
Steve Spurrier's team did everything right in a systematic win over Clemson on Saturday, but it was still one of the week's biggest losers.
Stock Up: Auburn
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The Tigers' BCS stock isn't soaring the way one might think.
Its ceiling is incredibly high, but this team would still miss a signature bowl should it lose the SEC Championship Game.
Still, Auburn is in better shape now—post Jordan-Hare Miracle No. 2—than it would have been had Alabama won the game. It likely would have fallen behind South Carolina in the polls and stood no chance at making the BCS.
The all-Tigers matchup in Atlanta this weekend will not be short on intrigue.
Missouri opened as a slight favorite, indicating that Vegas is still reticent to put stock in Gus Malzahn, Nick Marshall and the rest of this Auburn team.
The numbers suggest those doubters are correct. The eye test suggests they might be, too. But there might be higher forces at play here. How else could you explain what has happened in Auburn two of these past three weeks?
This one should be fun.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
