One-Third Settled: Pats Offense Could Dominate Again

The Patriots of 2009 should look radically different -- and completely familiar.
The return of All-World QB Tom Brady should power the offense to (or near) the top of the NFL heap.

In 2008, the team finished eighth in scoring offense, a year after leading the league by a wide margin. The 410 points they scored last year is more than either the 2003 or 2004 editions, and more than adequate. Even if the offense does not improve, it should be strong enough to again for them to reach double digits in the win column. Yet there are several reasons to expect that the scoring offense will improve, with Brady's return being foremost among them.

The team kept Matt Cassel on a short leash for much of the early going, as he had less than 200 yards passing in five of the team's first six games. By contrast, Brady had just one sub-200-yard game in 2007. Cassel clearly found his comfort zone later in the season, and the offense thrived, averaging nearly 32 points per game over the seasons' final seven contest, and that includes the season finale in Buffalo, where the teams combined for just 31 first downs in extremely windy conditions.

Brady's return means the team will have access to its entire playbook from Day One, and while averaging 32 PPG for the entire season is probably far-fetched, it's fair to expect that the team will move the ball more than it did in Cassel's learning period.

Brady's average season (331 of 526 [63 percent]  for 3810 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INT) doesn't look markedly different than Cassel's 2008 campaign (327 of 516, 3693 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT), but his mastery of the team's playbook is immeasurable. Brady had started 111 games (110 in a row) since taking over for Drew Bledsoe in early 2001, and knows every inch of the team's playbook inside and out. 

An anecdote from Sports Illustrated's recent cover story on Brady shows the depth of his knowledge - and the respect his teammates have for him: 

"Come on!" Moss said before Brady called the last of the 25 or so plays they ran. "Make this a hard one!"
Moss likes to be challenged, and he's one of the best in the game at reading his quarterback's subtle signals. Moss showed that in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII when, after seeing a simple nod from Brady, he adjusted his route, cut inside the cornerback and caught a six-yard touchdown pass to put the Patriots up 14-10 over the Giants. This time Brady called one of the new plays with a hand signal; to further test Moss, he quick-snapped and backpedaled, seeing if his receivers would figure out what to do.
Moss guessed wrong, walking off the line of scrimmage confused. "What are you doing?" Brady yelled.
"I don't know," Moss said. "What [play] is it?"
Brady called out the name, then said, triumphantly, "I'm going home! I got Moss today! I got you!"

While Brady's return is obviously the biggest storyline heading into training camp, there are several other changes, particularly on offense, that will make a difference in the team's play calling this season.

The power running game

The Pats have been using the running back-by-committee approach for several years now, and there's no reason to expect that to change. Without a true feature back, the team was still able to rack up at least 120 yards rushing in 11 of 16 contests last year. The additions of blocking TE Chris Baker and veteran RB Fred Taylor should only bolster the team's rushing attack.

Baker's former team, the New York Jets, improved their rushing average in each of the last three years, topping out at very healthy 4.7 yards per carry last year, and Baker was a major reason for that success. The Patriots have sometimes used OG Russ Hochstein as an extra blocker on short-yardage plays; Baker will likely take over that role. With Ben Watson and David Thomas as receiving tight ends, Baker's role is clear: create lanes for the team's stable of ballcarriers.

Taylor's role, on the other hand, remains largely undefined at this point. The team has had some terrible luck with injuries to Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and (to a lesser extent) Kevin Faulk over the past two years, so Taylor may be on board solely for depth. Still, the ability to insert a fresh pair of legs in any given situation should help the rushing attack, and Taylor may end up a big part of that. A veteran of 11 NFL seasons, Taylor appears likely to accept a lesser role in order to play for a winning organization.

Competition at the WR spot

The Patriots have operated out of the three-receiver set more than any other over the past two seasons, so the third receiver has plenty of chances on this squad. Jabar Gaffney filled the third receiver slot for the team last year, but he has taken his 38 receptions elsewhere. The question heading into training camp is whether that position will be filled by Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis or someone else.

Galloway is a 14-year veteran known for his blazing speed. But at 37, how much speed does he have left? Lewis looked like a promising pass catcher after hauling in 48 passes for Philadelphia in 2005, but has regressed since then, starting just four games over the past three seasons.

There is ample depth, with 2009 third-round choice Brandon Tate, coaching staff favorite Sam Aiken and enigmatic Matthew Slater.

If Galloway can still fly, he's the most likely choice to fill the third spot, as he could run deep routes as a decoy to open things up underneath for Wes Welker and company. If the team feels Galloway can't handle that role, look for Lewis to man the third spot and lots of double coverage on Randy Moss.

The Wild Card

Head Coach Bill Belichick has never been afraid of unconventional thinking, which may be the reason behind the team's decision to spend a seventh-round pick on QB Julian Edelman out of Kent State. Edelman (6', 198) led the Golden Flashes in rushing last year and even caught one pass. With the success of the Dolphins' "Wildcat" offense, the team may have something special in mind for Edelman, who clearly will not break into the team's QB rotation. Edelman could line up under center on two-point conversions, for instance - as rarely as that comes up, his ability to rush or pass is invaluable in that situation.

Edelman may also factor into the team's return game. Ellis Hobbs was the primary kick returner last year, and he was electrifying, averaging 28.5 yards per return, scoring 1 TD and consistently giving the team good starting field position. That job is up for grabs, with Maroney the leading contender at this point. Belichick values specials teams very highly, and has never been afraid to use his starters on kickoffs and punts. Still, with players like Slater, Tate and Edelman on the roster, its seems likely that one of them will find a niche as a returner.

Major changes in the secondary

Both starting cornerback and the emotional leader of the secondary, Rodney Harrison, are gone from last year's squad, and while many fans might say, "Good riddance," communication and stability are critical to the success of pass coverage. Deltha O'Neal's loss may indeed be addition by subtraction, and Harrison had become so injury prone that the team needed to move on. Still the question of who will emerge in the secondary looms large. The team drafted both Oregon safety Patrick Chung and UConn corner Darius Butler with its early picks, and 2008 draft choices Jonathan Wilhite and Terrence Wheatley will surely be in the mix as well. James Sanders gets first crack at safety and new addition Shawn Springs has the first-round pedigree attached to his resume, so he may start the season at one corner. There's also Leigh Bodden and even Tank Williams, who the team had big plans for before he missed all of 2008 with injury.

As has been the case in recent years, the team will likely do plenty of mixing and matching based on opponents, at least until it can find some consistency. The team's pass rush was awful last year, as they finished 28th in third-down efficiency. The secondary must hold its coverage longer for that to improve.

The price of success

The Patriots again saw major defections in the coaching staff, and this could be one area where the team is really hurt. Belichick has done a fantastic job of dealing with revolving door of assistant coaches, but this year he faces his biggest challenge yet. Gone are Josh McDaniels, Dom Capers, Brad Seely and personnel guru Scott Pioli. Whew!

Despite the loss of McDaniels, the passing offense will likely look largley the same, as Brady is back under center and he knows what he likes. Special teams could be a potential problem area, though: with a new coordinator, new long snapper, new rules regarding kickoff coverage and the loss of Hobbs and special teams captain Larry Izzo, this is definitely an area in transition.

The crystal ball

Brady's return, while not a panacea, will boost the offense and the running game should be at least as good as it was last year. If the team can find a few trick plays for someone like Edelman and Galloway can draw enough attention away from the other receivers, the 2009 Patriots could again set records for scoring. The secondary remains very much unsettled at this point, but how can it be worse than it was in 2008? The team's Achilles' Heel may well be special teams, where it must replace every important piece except the kickers. Change is the only constant.