Handicapping The NFC North

After Tampa Bay floated out into the Gulf of Mexico in early 2002, the once famed NFC Central (or NFC Norris if you're hip enough) was officially buried under six feet of dirt. Enter the NFC North, a predictable, yet aptly named (for the first time!) division housing all four remaining teams not named Tampa Bay. After all, nobody really cared about the Buccaneers back then anyways, and it never made much sense for a team based in Florida to go masquerading around in a northern division in the first place.

Of course the Bucs did go on to win the Super Bowl in their first year playing in a localized division, but we're just going to pretend that never really happened.

So there it was, four brutal rivals (Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota) all set to beat the living crap out of each other for the next thirty years or so. Good stuff.

But nearly eight years into its existence, success has hardly been the division's calling card up until this point. Don't get me wrong, the Packers have been good (four 10 win seasons), the Bears have been decent (made a Super Bowl in 06'), and the Vikings have been serviceable (two playoff appearances), but the Detroit Lions remain one of the biggest jokes in the entire league.

Will 2009 be any different? Here's a little bit about how the division might shake out:

Minnesota Vikings

How would Vikings' fans be able to contain themselves if the team actually landed Brett Favre in the coming weeks? Didn't most of them just spend upwards of 20 seasons hating every single thing Favre did? Personally I think a small-scale boycott might be in order (it probably already is), while a handful of the remaining fan base would be essentially forced into rooting for a washed up "gunslinger" that may or may not have what it takes.

Some absolutely feel that the addition of Favre will dramatically alter how the NFC North will shake out. I like to call these people foolish. Offensively, the Vikings are going to run the ball almost non-stop with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. They have an offensive line built for power blocking, and that's simply what they do best. Their quarterback situation won't really change this fact too much either. Whether it's Favre, Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels leading the offense, the role of the quarterback on this team is simply to manage the game and not to turn the ball over. Favre and "game manager" don't really go hand-in-hand, which is why bringing him in could actually have a negative effect on what this team is trying to accomplish.

The Verdict: There's too much talent peppered throughout this roster for this team not to approach double digit victories. Rosenfels is the right quarterback for this team to be successful in the short term, and as long as stud runner Peterson stays relatively healthy then Minnesota has to be the favorite in the division.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers of 2008 might have been the best 6-10 team in recent memory, and it's very difficult to imagine they will be any worse off than they were a year ago. The progression of quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be key, obviously. He has the potential to develop into a top six or seven NFL quarterback, but some seriously question whether he'll actually achieve that status. Rodgers was lights out early on last year, but struggled with his decision making down the stretch. If he manages to take the next step then Green Bay immediately becomes a Super Bowl caliber team assuming they can stay healthy on defense, most notably in their secondary.

One area where the Packers seem to be missing something is in their backfield. Starting runner Ryan Grant saw a nice $30 million dollar contract come his way last offseason, but he hardly lived up to expectations with a less than stellar 08' campaign. Grant is a poor receiver and blocker, making him a fairly large liability in the passing game. He has skated by with most critics for the most part because of how big of an impact he made back in 2007, although his time as a starting running back could be running out. With that said, the Packers have a handful of situational backs behind him, but none that appears remotely ready to step up and snatch his job away.

The Verdict: Scoring points really won't be a problem for this team yet again, and there's a great young core ready to contribute on the defensive side of the ball. As cliche' as it sounds, everything really hinges on quarterback Aaron Rodgers' arm this year. If Rodgers is slightly better than last season but not quite up to elite standards, then this team should still find a way to compete for both a division title and possibly a wild card berth.

Chicago Bears

The biggest criticism of Chicago's team in recent years has been mostly delegated to their lackluster quarterback play. Now it seems that area has been taken care of for the next six years or so with the addition of Denver export Jay Cutler. The Bears have always had an elite defense capable of winning games on their own, and now they instantly become a scary opponent to match up against with Cutler's poise and arm strength on the other side of the ball.

Even though All-Pros like Brian Urlacher have slowed down somewhat as of late, the tenacious defensive intensity is still alive and kicking with this team. Second year runner Matt Forte was arguably the most versatile offensive weapon in the entire division last season as a rookie, and that includes Minnesota's Adrian Peterson. Deep ball threat Devin Hester should flourish with Cutler chucking him the ball

The Verdict: The Bears are in a similar scenario as the Packers and Vikings heading into this season. All three have the talent to win ten games or possibly even more, but it's going to take a healthy season on defense and consistent quarterback play to get them there. In the same sense, any one of those teams can go in the tank and lose a few more than they should early on, meaning they could be flirting with double digit losses. Bringing in Cutler was a brilliant move as far as Chicago is concerned however, and it's hard to see the Bears finishing any worse than .500 by season's end.

Detroit Lions

To all my fellow Detroit fans who were baffled on draft day, it's about time to suck it up and enjoy this team for what it is. Like it or not, Matthew Stafford IS a franchise quarterback with a cannon for an arm, flawless mechanics and great poise in the pocket. He isn't going to lead Detroit to a Super Bowl this season, so there's not much of an incentive to put any other pressure on his shoulders right now. Let him get some reps under his belt and then we can re-evaluate this team again a year from now. Until then I have absolutely zero complaints about Daunte Culpepper starting 10-13 games in 2009. Baby steps.

Just looking at the list of free agent signings that the Lions have made, you can really start to see how much depth this organization has started to assemble across the board. They didn't go out and overpay for a star defensive tackle like Albert Haynesworth, instead opting to add experienced players with lower than expected contracts who can come in and contribute in small doses. Defensively they should be much improved, especially in part because of rookie safety Louis Delmas and his work ethic. The guy is simply relentless on and off the field, and it's something that is extremely contagious when you're working around him on a day-to-day basis. I've said for a while that he's got Bob Sanders potential, and it's good to start hearing that comparison brought up more and more by Lions' faithful. The most important thing for Detroit is to start keeping people off the scoreboard, which is something that will eventually translate into a fair share of victories.

The Verdict: Winning eight games would be phenomenal for Detroit's morale, but it doesn't appear very likely in a division featuring three teams that are all on the rise. The Lions can make a run at five or six wins if they play smart football and Daunte Culpepper actually shows up determined to stay in the NFL, although that might still be a stretch. The development of running back Kevin Smith will be very important as well, and it will help the team decide if he is indeed the franchise runner they have been seeking since Barry Sanders left town.