It Will Be A Rugged Road to the Playoffs Through the AFC East

The New York Jets will have a tough road to the playoffs in 2009. While the team appears to be much improved, so are teams in their division and on their schedule.

The AFC East might be the best division in football this year from top to bottom.  All four teams have realistic goals of reaching the playoffs and are looking to build off promising 2008 campaigns.

Three of those teams, the Jets (10-6), Patriots (11-5) and Dolphins (11-5) all finished with 10+ wins, and all were in the playoff hunt going into the final week of the season. The Bills (7-9) showed signs of greatness, starting the season at 5-1, but sputtered at the end of the season, failing to make the playoffs for the ninth year in a row.

Miami was able to beat the Jets in the last game of the season, taking the divisional crown from the seven-time defending champions Patriots, courtesy of a tiebreaker.   Unfortunately for New England, the Patriots became the first 11-win-team to miss the playoffs since the NFL switched to the six team playoff format in 1990.

The division tied for third best record in the league at 38-26-0 and was only a half a game behind the NFC East (38-25-1) and two games behind the league leading NFC South (40-24-0).

These four divisions were the cream of the crop last year. Although none of the 16 teams made it to the Super Bowl (and only one team, the Philadelphia Eagles, even made it to the conference championship game), only two teams - the Jaguars and Bills- finished with losing records.

The AFC North, the division with the fifth best record, finished far behind the top four, six and a half games behind the AFC East with a record of 31-32-1.

This year the AFC East teams have all taken strides to get better (full team evaluations and predictions below), but it might not translate to more wins. Last year the AFC East got to face the lowly NFC West (combined record 22-42-0 worst in the league) in inter-conference play. This year they will face the talented NFC South, the best division in football last year by record. In short, it will be tough to win a wild card out of the AFC East.

In 2008 the Jets faced nine teams with losing records the previous season. In the upcoming season they will only face five (Buffalo twice, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Oakland.) During the Jets monumental collapse at the end of last season they lost to the struggling Seahawks and 49ers. If they want to make the playoffs this season they must fare better against the Falcons and Buccaneers.

A short breakdown of the AFC East contenders:

The Favorite: New England Patriots 

This team almost won the division after sustaining a number of serious injuries.  Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady is on schedule to fully recover from his knee injury and has already been practicing with the team.

He will rejoin the record setting offense that scored an astonishing 75 TDss and amassed 411 YPG. Expect to see a lot more long passes to Randy Moss, whose deep ball and overall production took a dramatic hit when Matt Cassel took over the reins last season.

This offseason the Patriots did the opposite of the Jets in the draft, trading down and going for quantity. They also released and then added a number of reserve players via free agency. If this team can solidify its suspect secondary, they should be extremely scary to face.    

The Runner Up: Miami Dolphins 

The Dolphins took the NFL by surprise last year. They baffled teams with their wildcat formation, helping former Jet Chad Pennington win his second Comeback Player of the Year award. Perhaps this contributed to their balanced attack, as they finished 10th in the league in both rushing and passing with only one superstar offensive skill player in RB Ronnie Brown.  

The team added a couple fast and skilled young cornerbacks and the versatile QB/WR Pat White via the draft. They will also have a healthy Tedd Ginn Jr., who will look to establish himself as one of the NFL’s elite receivers. Expect this team to be solid on both sides of the ball.

* caution – buyer beware* Chad Pennington is a good QB, and I believe a lot of Jets fans were secretly rooting for him last season (I know I was).  But he has never played great in back to back seasons. If his weak arm doesn’t cut it or he goes down with a knee injury in Week Four don’t get upset when fans across the tri-state area yell one loud “I told you so.”

The Wild Card (A): New York Jets 

The team that has a chance to take the division by surprise, much like last year’s Dolphins. The Jets started off the season with a bang (8-3) butended with a whimper (2-3). As a result Gang Green underwent another major overhaul this offseason.

They said goodbye to Coach Eric Mangini, QB Brett Favre and WR Laveranues Cole.  Replacing them at their positions are first year head coach Rex Ryan, rookie QB Mark Sanchez and a number of reserves looking to step up.

The Jets appear to be set to use the same strategy the Ravens used last year:  ball hawking defense, a solid running game with numerous talented backs, and a turnover-limiting passing game run by an untested quarterback.

This team may have a better chance than the Dolphins to finish ahead of the Patriots, but there is also a greater chance that they could end up on the bottom of the division.

The team will start a new QB who will be throwing to a highly suspect wide receiving corps. However, they appear to have some similarities to the 2008 Dolphins:  a new coach, a new QB, a solid running game and a defense that does not let you score.

The Wild Card (B): Buffalo Bills 

Also have a great chance to surprise this season. The Bills started last season with looking like winners, but faded fast. This season might be the opposite.

They will be without their starting running back Marshawn Lynch for the first three games of the season when they play the Patriots, Buccaneers and Saints.

That just might be a good time for Trent Edwards and Terrell Owens to get to know each other a little better. The Bills' receiving corps of Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Roscoe Parish might not be as good as the Patriots', but it might be close.  

If everyone on this roster can stay healthy and the offensive line holds up, they will not go 0-6 against the rest of the division again.