Machida Against the World, Well Just the 205 Division Part 1

Now that Lyota Machida has captured the belt the talk of another long title run in the UFC is beginning the question is these talks justified? In order to find that out you have to analyze the other fighters that will be going against Machida.

Machida’s style is unorthodox to MMA. It is like the Bermuda Triangle, fighters get lost in trying to figure it out. Yet its beauty and grace is like the Sistine Chapel to the fans. 

Any champion is a task for any challenger, but a champion like Machida makes you truly use your strengths because he has shown no weakness. So what fighters pose the greatest threat to Machida’s run as a champion.

It’s already been decided that Machida’s first title defense was going to be against Rampage however Rampage turned down the fight to get coach TUF against Rashad. However Rampage in my opinion has the best chance of taking the title from Machida. Rampage presents one huge problem that Machida has never faced, one punch knockout power.

Machida has tackled some tough opponents but he has never faced a fighter who can truly daze you with on single punch. Rashad Evans is the closest thing that he has face but he was to hesitant on his strikes to have any impact against Machida’s countering.

Machida is the king of counter because of his patience. He waits for fighters to come in on him and counters them with brutal kicks and fast punches. Rampage has already fought a fighter like this, Chuck Liddell.

Ask anyone who is responsible for Chuck Liddell’s fall from grace and they will tell you it was Rampage. He exposed the fact if you don’t chase Chuck you can’t get caught. He will use this same patience against Machida.

Machida will have to push the fight against Machida and he can do it. He showed that by how well he picked apart Evans from a distance. Evans should have closed the distance on kicks to prevent the counters.

Rampage will not hesitate to close the distance against Machida. He is going to eat counter kicks but it’s already been established that Rampage has no problem with eating these kicks. He got his leg tore up in the Griffin fight and he didn’t adjust to fix that problem in the Jardine fight. In the Jardine fight he didn’t even attempt to check one single kick, he took them and closed the distance on each kick.

Machida’s kicks are a lot harder than any kick Rampage has faced before but Machida will be unable to keep Rampage at bay with these kicks, Rampage is going to take the kicks and move in closer on every kick. This prevents a problem for both fighters’ styles.

Rampage taking the kicks poses a huge threat to his leg health. Every kick he eats takes power and speed out of his punches. It also takes away his shooting ability for takedowns and slams. You can’t generate force when you’re driving off a Charlie horse.

The advantage for Rampage is that it neutralizes the risk of Machida’s kick combos. If you watched the Evans fight you were probably impressed when Machida threw a leg kick to a head kick combo faster than most guys throw punch combos.

Those combos aren’t going to work against Rampage if he closes the distance. When Machida can’t extend the leg for the head kick he loses power on the kick and also puts himself at risk of a takedown.

So once the distance is closed Rampage has the opportunity to catch Machida like he caught Liddell, while he was backing out of a counter. So what happens when Machida uses counter punches? No matter who you are counter punches hurt.

If Machida is picking apart Rampage with counter punches look for Rampage to try and take the fight to the ground. Now this is by no means a safe haven for Rampage but his odds are better because of his strength.

We’ve seen Machida’s ground defense in the Tito fight. Love him or hate him Tito was great with takedowns, Machida did an excellent job of keeping the fight off the ground. Tito didn’t have the strength that rampage possesses.

If Rampage is able to get Machida down, and that is a big IF, it’s going to be difficult for Machida to get him off. If Rampage is in the slightest bit of opportunity to throw punches he will hammer Machida.

While the fight is on the ground all Machida has to defend is the punches, Rampage has no interest in submissions. I don’t even think if Machida laid his arm in Rampage’s lap he would do an arm bar. This is going to be a fight where a submission is very unlikely.

Rampage can’t do them and he has the strength to power out of them, just look up “Rampage powerbomb” on youtube.com for proof.  Machida knows the risk and the waste of energy that a submission poses so I don’t expect him to try too hard for them.

If the fight goes to the ground look to Machida to try and bring it back to standing and show no interest in trying to get better position on the ground. Machida is a very smart fighter so I wouldn’t look for him to put himself in too much risk of a takedown unless he is losing the fight on the cards.

The final key to this puzzle is octagon control. Both fighters’ posses a great amount of this. Rampage lures people into the cage where they can’t retreat, he showed this in the Griffin and Jardine fight.

Machida on the other hand puts you where he wants through the fear of his counters. Rashad controlled the center of the octagon in every fight except for his loss against Machida. Machida never let him have the center of the octagon. This forced Rashad to try and punch his way into the center of the ring.

Either way this will not be the blow out that the Rashad Evans fight was. Rampage presents a big problem for Machida’s title run as well as his first loss in his MMA career.