TUF 18 Finale: Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
At the TUF 18 finale, lightweight contenders Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz will be looking to rebound from deflating losses.
Following a controversial win over Clay Guida, Maynard found himself back in running for a shot at the 155-pound championship. However, in a bout with the surging TJ Grant, Maynard was stopped with strikes in the first round.
Diaz, meanwhile, has also been headed in the wrong direction. At UFC on Fox 5, Diaz was dominated by then-champion Benson Henderson. Five months later, Diaz suffered the first knockout loss of his MMA career against Josh Thomson.
While the loser of this fight will be in a bad position after multiple losses, Saturday's main-event winner will be right back within a couple wins of fighting for the lightweight championship. Here is a closer look at how Maynard and Diaz match up in all areas.
Striking: Maynard Offense vs. Diaz Defense
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In his bouts with Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard showed he has the punching power to put many lightweights on wobbly legs. However, he hasn't outlanded an opponent in significant strikes since his bout with Kenny Florian in August 2010.
Against a volume striker like Diaz, Maynard needs to land the more damaging, memorable blows. Diaz's tendency to walk forward with his hands low could give Maynard opportunities to score those big shots he'll need to finish this fight or make an impact on the scorecards.
Shortly after taunting Henderson at UFC on Fox 5, Diaz lowered his hands and walked forward. Henderson capitalized with a right hook to Diaz's chin and became the first fighter to knock Diaz down since August 2010.
Hit with multiple head kicks in his bout against Josh Thomson, Diaz has now been dropped in back-to-back outings.
Landing 31 percent of his strikes inside the Octagon, Maynard is a much less accurate striker than either Henderson or Thomson, but he possesses just as much power as both of Diaz's most recent opponents. Maynard controversially defeated Diaz in a January 2010 stand-up bout, but he'll likely need to stop the Californian to win a boxing match this time around.
Striking: Diaz Offense vs. Maynard Defense
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In his latest meeting with Maynard, Diaz landed 29 more significant strikes than his opponent, but he came up short in a split decision on the scorecards. If he stays upright for three rounds on Saturday, Diaz isn't likely to walk away with another defeat on his record.
Diaz throws more frequently than Maynard and still lands at a higher percentage than Maynard. Although Maynard is effective at avoiding strikes, evading 72 percent of opponent attacks, he does leave an opening for boxers like Diaz.
In his bout with TJ Grant, Maynard was tagged hard by multiple jab-straight combinations. The former title challenger tried blocking Grant's left jab with his own left hand, framing himself up for the straight right that led to his knockout loss.
The first time (above), Maynard was blasted backward and forced to the cage wall. When Maynard was too slow to learn from his mistake, again attempting to block a strike coming from his right side with his left hand (below), Grant capitalized and earned a knockout victory.
Although Diaz doesn't possess the same power as Grant does, he presses forward with jab-straight combinations almost constantly. Unless Maynard seals this hole in his striking defense, he'll be eating a lot of leather when standing on Saturday.
Takedowns: Maynard Offense vs. Diaz Defense
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Maynard did not attempt a takedown in his last fight with Diaz, but there's a good chance he'll look to go to the ground at least once or twice should this meeting last three rounds.
An All-American wrestler, Maynard is capable of taking down any lightweight in the world. He grounded former champion Frankie Edgar 12 times over three fights.
Having been taken down 10 times over his past three bouts, Diaz hasn't seemed in a hurry to improve his wrestling. A big reason for that is because his jiu-jitsu is so strong when he is taken to the ground.
If Maynard is willing to deal with Diaz's guard, he should be able to take this fight to the canvas whenever he pleases.
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Takedowns: Diaz Offense vs. Maynard Defense
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Diaz isn't known as one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division, and Maynard certainly won't have been spending extra time on his takedown defense heading into this matchup. However, in the right situation, Diaz might be able to land on top on Saturday.
Against a solid wrestler in Thomson, Diaz was able to score his first takedown since January 2011.
In an over-under clinch (top left), Thomson began circling toward his underhook in an attempt to create space and try to pummel inside with his right arm (top right). Instead, Diaz used Thomson's momentum against him by tripping with his own right leg (bottom left) and finishing a takedown (bottom right).
Since January 2008, only Frankie Edgar has taken Maynard down, and no fighter has out-wrestled Maynard inside the Octagon. It's highly unlikely, but it's not impossible for Diaz to take Maynard down on Saturday.
Grappling: Maynard Top vs. Diaz Bottom
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In official fights, Maynard has never been submitted. However, during TUF 5, Diaz caught Maynard in a guillotine choke to earn a spot in the competition's finals.
That submission was likely a big reason Maynard avoided going to the ground with Diaz in their last meeting. However, Maynard hasn't been submitted since then despite going to the ground with excellent grapplers such as Jim Miller and Kenny Florian.
Maynard has not finished any UFC opponents with his ground-and-pound, but he has the ability to hold his adversaries down and grind out decision wins. Sitting in Diaz's guard for three rounds is a significant danger, but it may be a necessary risk for Maynard to walk away with a victory.
Grappling: Diaz Top vs. Maynard Bottom
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Diaz's chances of taking Maynard down are slim to begin with. Keeping Maynard on the ground would be equally hard.
After three Edgar takedowns at UFC 125, Maynard was able to repeatedly work his way back to a standing position. A large lightweight with top-notch wrestling, Maynard isn't going to be controlled on the ground by a grappler who takes risks like Diaz does.
One of those risks could end with Maynard tapping, but there's almost no chance Maynard spends a majority of any round stuck on bottom.
Intangibles
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Coming off six- and seven-month break, respectively, Maynard and Diaz should be refreshed without being rusty heading into their clash on Saturday.
Still, some miscellaneous advantages do point in Diaz's favor.
Diaz owns a six-inch reach advantage over Maynard, which could be an important factor should this fight stay standing.
Maynard could also have some issues with Diaz's conditioning, as he did in bouts with Edgar. It would be an even bigger talking point were this a usual main event consisting of five rounds, but the contract was signed for three rounds, with the original TUF 18 finale main event booked being a flyweight title fight between Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez.
Prediction
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This matchup could play out several different ways. It really all depends on Gray Maynard's game plan coming into the main event on Saturday.
While he comes from a wrestling background, Maynard has completely forgone takedown attempts in past fights due to the confidence he has in his hands.
Boxing with Nate Diaz for three rounds this weekend could lead to a second straight loss for Maynard. Despite standing for all three rounds the last time he met Diaz, Maynard was lucky enough to walk away with a decision win, but it's tough to see the judges helping him out again in a boxing match.
For good reason, Maynard was wary of going to the ground with Diaz the last time around. However, having never been submitted since he met Diaz on TUF in 2007, Maynard has shown he's capable of rolling with high-level jiu-jitsu practitioners.
If Maynard forces Diaz to respect his takedowns, he can have more success when standing. As long as he doesn't ignore his own wrestling, Maynard should be able keep Diaz uncomfortable and walk away with a decision victory.
Prediction
Maynard defeats Diaz by decision.
Images and statistics via UFC.com.
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