NFL Week 12 Lines, Spreads and Odds for Each Game

Las Vegas was built in a day. Sunday to be exact. 

The oddsmakers absolutely nailed it this week with three pushes. Apparently, these guys know what they're doing. 

Bravo. Good job, good effort. You have to give credit where credit is due and whatever else you're supposed to say to people who accomplish things. 

Is this effusive praise written with a mind toward building up some good karma? Perhaps the intent is more sinister, and I'm aiming for a reverse jinx.

Regardless, I'm going into this last six-week stretch with some positivity and the goal of restoring my pride. I'm aiming for a .500 record over the remainder of the season to set the table for a resurgent 2014.

At least that's what I'm telling myself. Click through for my NFL Week 12 picks against the spread. 

Last Week: 4-8-3

Six-Week Challenge: 0-0-0

Season Record: 63-93-6

All lines are courtesy of Footballlocks.com. All advanced stats and rankings are provided by Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

New Orleans Saints (-8) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The first slide was about heaping praise on the oddsmakers. Now, I'm admonishing their foolishness for such an inadequate line.

I know. It sounds like a Daddy-doesn't-love-me thing. It's not. We're cool.

But this line doesn't make any sense.

The Atlanta Falcons went down to Tampa Bay, and the situation devolved into The Terminal with Tom Hanks. The Bucs had chased them out of Florida, but I highly doubt anyone in Atlanta wanted them back. As far as I know, Matt Ryan and Mike Smith are still sleeping at the airport, waiting to find out their fate. 

As for the football side of things, rookie Mike Glennon and some dude named Bobby Rainey went off on Atlanta. How do you think Drew Brees, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas will fare against that same defense?

Maybe Vegas thinks this is a trap game for the New Orleans Saints after a close win over the 49ers. Or the oddsmakers might assume that a divisional game between two bitter rivals means we throw out the records. 

Frankly, I don't care why the line is so low. It's like questioning why you won the lotto. It's unfulfilling and unnecessary. 

Pick: New Orleans -8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) vs. Detroit Lions

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

You could think about this game all week and not have a clear picture in time for Sunday. There are just too many questions.

Is the Detroit Lions secondary beyond salvageable?

The front seven is shutting down the run, but without pressure against shorter throws, the defensive backs will continue to miss tackles and give up huge chunks of yardage.

Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making a run at respectability?

Don't laugh. They've won two games in a row, which is more than the Jets can say. 

Fine, but do you want to back the Bucs on the road?

I don't have to. I can back nine points and the threat of Vincent Jackson scoring at least two touchdowns on that "secondary" en route to a late-game cover. 

Pick: Tampa Bay +9

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) vs. Houston Texans

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

The Houston Texans have been feisty the past few weeks. They've put up points and built leads only to watch the wins slip away.

I get it. It's been the story of my season. But my sympathy doesn't outweigh my shock at this line.

In fact, I've been so thrown off by that huge number in the heading that I can't even write about the situation. I decided it was best to just excerpt this recent interview with a bookmaking outfit's CEO.

"Q: What are your thoughts on the Jacksonville Jaguars?

A: They're terrible. If you were rating them on a scale from Mark Sanchez to Peyton Manning, they'd come in at Ryan Leaf.

Q: Oh, wow. So they don't even register, ah? What about the Texans?

A: They're closer to their former first overall pick David Carr. They looked good on paper, but the season has exposed them as the little brother of the NFL.

Q: So neither team is good?

A: [laughs] No. 

Q: Then why are the Texans favored by 10.5 points?

A: Well, that's simple. The Texans...the Jaguars...excuse me. I need to go fire people."

Pick: Jacksonville +10.5

*Interview might have been made up

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

Backup quarterbacks always make things weird.

Scott Tolzien was never the answer, yet he still gets the start. We'll see how long that lasts.

Matt Flynn was a solid second-stringer once upon a time, but are the Packers getting that Flynn or the one who was cut by his last three teams?

The Minnesota Vikings would probably kill for a legitimate backup quarterback since that would give them at least one viable option at the position. 

So who do you trust this Sunday? Fly-zien or Pon-sel?

Screw it. Give me the points and Adrian Peterson.

And a drink.

Pick: Minnesota +3.5

San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5)

Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

I'm not one to believe the Kansas City Chiefs are bad because they lost to the Broncos by 10 on the road. However, backing them and giving up more than a handful of points is scary. They aren't a blow-you-out type of team.

So why take the Chiefs? It's simple: I hate the San Diego Chargers. I'm betting their fans do too.

They always look like the smart pick. They have the quarterback and an offensive line that has played decently. We keep hearing how they were only a few plays away from being 6-1. 

Yet they kept losing. Week in and week out. It's maddening. 

Oh, and the defense is really bad. Almost Washington bad.

Internet writers always get comments about how they "hate" a certain team. This time, it's absolutely true. 

Pick: Kansas City -5

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Some people will get scared off by that extra half-point. I understand. 

But apparently you don't understand how much I hate the Chargers. I mean it's so much more than a strong dislike. When I see those powder blue jerseys, I have the same visceral reaction as when I see King Joffrey. 

Are you starting to fathom the depths of my emotion here? Good, because it's important to understanding this pick.

The Carolina Panthers are a good team. They love to pound on the bad teams. They have four wins by 18 or more points.

I'm not convinced that the Miami Dolphins aren't a bad team just because they beat the Chargers. In fact, I'm going to assume they're a bad team because Miami would be under .500 without that win.

Pick: Carolina -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) vs. Cleveland Browns

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Finding a real advantage for either team in this game was tough. Neither team runs the ball well, and both passing defenses should keep this to a low-scoring affair.

Therefore, any good prognosticator would look to the coaching, where the Pittsburgh Steelers would seemingly have an advantage in head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. 

But don't forget about Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Ray Horton. He's had a load of success transforming the Browns into a top-10 defense.

However, if you'll recall, I said "good" prognosticator. I'm more of the bold type. To me, Ben Roethlisberger and two points is greater than Jason Campbell. 

Sometimes, it's that simple.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2

Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams (-1)

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

I kept thinking there's no way the Chicago Bears lose this game. They're too good, and the St. Louis Rams are too bad.

Then time ran out. I made my pick.

I took the Rams. 

The matchups favor St. Louis. If you haven't been paying attention, the Rams have a scary pass rush between Chris Long and Robert Quinn (20 combined sacks). While the Bears' offensive line has been better in the sack department this season, it's still giving up way too many pressures. 

Long and Quinn are the type of defensive ends that can turn pressures into sacks. And even if they don't quite get there, it'll shorten the amount of time that Josh McCown has to get the ball to his big receivers.

If the defense keeps it close, Zac Stacy can do just enough damage against that ravaged Bears defense to steal this win.

Pick: St. Louis -1

New York Jets (+4) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Ron Antonelli/Getty Images

The New York Jets have literally alternated wins and losses every week since the start of the season. Why would I ever go against that?

"How about because Ray Rice finally had a 100-yard game?"

Please. Who hasn't run for 131 yards against the Bears this year?

"Well, Geno Smith looked pretty terrible last week."

True. He's a rookie. These things happen.

"OK, smart guy. What about New York's awful 1-4 record on the road and the Baltimore Ravens' 3-1 mark at home?"

Fine. That's a good one. Or two. 

But I still don't care. There's no signature win that signals things are well with the Super Bowl champs. Both teams have good defenses, meaning a field-goal game is certainly within reach. 

Yup. I'm sticking with the alternating-week thing and the Jets' devastating defensive line. 

Pick: New York +4

Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders (-1)

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans and I have been through a lot. There are lingering feelings, and there have been a lot of good times, especially those first four wins against the spread when no one believed in us.

But it's time to move on. I'm picking the Oakland Raiders over Tennessee, and the Raiders aren't even getting any points. 

I held on as long as I could. The Titans have lost five of their last six games, and one of those was a home loss to the Jaguars. How long can you date the unemployed guy who plays video games all day while saying he just needs to find himself?

The answer for me was 11 weeks.

So now I'm placing my faith in newly christened Raiders starter Matthew McGloin. If he can stay out of his team's way and let his running backs churn out some first downs against a team allowing over 117 yards on the ground, the defense should shut down the Ryan Fitzpatrick aerial show.

Sorry, Titans. Hopefully we can still be friends.  

Pick: Oakland -1

Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2)

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Tell me you can accurately peg the Indianapolis Colts. Seriously. Try defining this team. 

You're done? Good. Because any description that didn't include erratic, unpredictable and head scratching is laughable. 

Now that I've got all the Colts fans riled up, I'm going to say something even crazier: The Arizona Cardinals are consistent. 

It's true. The Carson Palmer-led Cardinals have four losses, and only one of them came against a team that isn't a serious NFC contender. The other three were road losses to Seattle, San Francisco and New Orleans. 

That loss? Just a three-point defeat at the hands of the Rams. We all know what St. Louis did to Indy just a couple weeks ago.

The Colts will do what they always do and fall behind early. This week, Andrew Luck won't be able to bring them back against that nasty defense. 

Pick: Arizona -1

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (-2.5)

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

I tried.

I tried to ignore that half-point you're essentially getting if you take the New York Giants since home teams automatically start off giving three.

That's the whole point of this spread. Vegas wants you to get suckered into taking the Giants instead of the more talented Dallas Cowboys.

But I can't do it.

Not when Dallas has looked pretty terrible the last three games. Sure, one of those was a win and the Detroit game went down to the final few seconds. However, the win came against the Vikings, and the loss to the Lions came after "forcing" four turnovers. No team should ever lose when they are given four turnovers.

At least the Giants have resembled a football team as of late. I can't say that for Dallas and its defense, which is the worst in the league yardage-wise.

Pick: New York -2.5

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (+3)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

This game has tough Denver Broncos loss written all over it. 

First, there's the Tom-Brady-has-most-of-his-weapons-again thing. Adding Shane Vereen to an offense that has fully reintegrated Rob Gronkowski will vault the Pats back into the Super Bowl discussion.

Next, there's the health issues for the Broncos. Surprise tight end Julius Thomas is hobbled, and Jeff Legwold of ESPN reported that Wes Welker is possibly concussed, meaning Peyton Manning isn't working with the same advantages as Brady.

Finally, the schedule is too brutal for the Broncos to make it through unscathed.

Every team in the NFL is flawed. Denver struggles to generate a consistent ground game and has trouble defending the pass. Expecting the Broncos to march through the Chiefs twice and the Pats once in three straight weeks is more wishful thinking than pragmatic analysis.

I'll take the home dog with the chip on its shoulder. Especially after that bitter loss to the Panthers.

Pick: New England +3

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) vs. Washington Redskins

Michael Regan/Getty Images

This game boils down to beliefs. 

I believe in Jim Harbaugh. Yes, the San Francisco 49ers have lost two consecutive games, but both L's were to tough opponents and came by a total of four points.

I don't believe in the current version of Robert Griffin III. He's started multiple games poorly and is making uncharacteristic bad decisions with the game on the line. He doesn't seem to be in a good place right now. I don't know if it's the injury, the losing, the coach or a combination of all three, but something isn't right.

I believe in San Francisco's power-rushing attack. Frank Gore's revival is real, as proven by his 5.1-yard average against the tough Panthers. 

I don't believe that Washington understands the concept of defense. Head coach Mike Shanahan gets that he has to put 11 guys on the field, but you can't convince me that those guys understand their purpose.

And you don't have to take my word for it. The collective defensive grade for Washington, which is by far the worst, is 33 percent lower than the Jaguars' grades.

What do you believe in?

Pick: 49ers -4.5