Pacquiao vs. Rios Predictions: Projecting Most Pivotal Rounds of Main Event

Bovada has Brandon Rios as a +375 underdog to Manny Pacquiao for their fight in Macau, China on Saturday. There are countless legitimate reasons for this deficit. 

Pacquiao has lost two straight fights, but he showed solid form in both. Many felt he was robbed by a decision that handed victory to Timothy Bradley in June of 2012. 

He followed that up by grabbing a face full of canvas after being knocked cold by rival Juan Manuel Marquez. Still, prior to the knockout, Pacquiao looked as close to the form he displayed in his prime as one could expect from a 34-year-old. 

That form figures to be enough to be enough to handle "Bam Bam" Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO). 

Rios has a tremendous record and he's posted some highlight-worthy knockouts. However, where Pacquiao has a list of victims that include many of the generation's greatest fighters, Rios' past opponents haven't exactly been household names. 

In his last two fights, Bam Bam took on Mike Alvarado. Rios triumphed with a stoppage in the first, but was undone by decision in the second. That was the first loss of his professional career, and the odds of him rebounding from that loss successfully are long. 

Still, Rios is a dangerous fighter. His career knockout percentage is greater than Pacquiao's. If he catches Pacquiao with a few big shots, he could send the Filipino legend to his third straight defeat. 

I don't see that happening, but if Rios can win the rounds I'm going to highlight, he will stand a great chance of coming up on the right end of this bout. 

Round 1

The first round is going to be of vital importance. This is Pacquiao's first time in the ring since his brutal knockout by way of a Marquez counterpunch. 

Even a fighter as accomplished as Pacquiao can suffer from doubts, and that is exactly what Pacquiao will be suffering from if Rios lands some big shots in the first round. 

I see Rios trying to exploit this by coming out of his corner in a straight-ahead, brawling fashion. This is going to play right into Pac-Man's fists. 

He will use his superior lateral movement to avoid the incoming Rios' blows and then work the angles to land some quality punches. He won't knock Rios down, but he will establish early control. 

Round 4

The fight will settle in in the second and third rounds. Rios is a high-volume puncher with a strong chin. This will lead to some marvelous exchanges between the two, but without any knockdowns occurring.   

Rios' lack of success will begin to frustrate him and he will become even more aggressive. 

Pac-Man will feast on this and land a punishing blow that sends Bam Bam to the canvas. Rios will rise and make it to his corner for the end of the round. 

Round 5

Rios will come out of his corner in the fifth battered, bruised and looking to send Pacquiao to a knockdown. 

He will land his best shots of the night early in Round 5, but not enough to get Pacquiao on the canvas, and Pac-Man will begin to reestablish control. He will send Bam Bam to the canvas twice and the referee will stop the fight on the second.