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Portugal vs. Sweden: Prediction, Preview and Likely Match-Winners

Greg JohnsonNov 15, 2013

Portugal and Sweden's two-legged World Cup qualification play-off will be a winner-takes-all showdown between Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, kicking off on Friday November 15 in Lisbon.

Whoever misses out will be cut off from Brazil 2014, forced to watch on as a spectator rather than make history as an acting protagonist.

Much will depend on who can carry their team further in the tie with neither nation able to boast a coherent alternative or effective back-up to their iconic attackers.

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Ronaldo may be joined in the Portuguese national team by Nani, Fabio Coentrao and other skillful players, but they often appear to lack the mental drive of their match-winning superstar.

Sweden are arguably even weaker than their opponent once deprived of their star man, with Ibrahimovic the undoubted genius of his generation.

Having said that however, the teams may yet decide the outcome of the two games, with the opposing managers' strategies for dealing with their respective dangers set to shape the fixture as much as Ronaldo and Ibrahimovic's dueling.

Cutting their favoured form of service could be the most effective tactic, although any defensive plan will be prone to the improvisational capabilities of the two Ballon d'Or nominees.

After all, moments of genius often lay waste to even the most disciplined back lines.

Yet Portugal and Sweden must try to stem their supply, with Ronaldo's preference for through balls and flank-switching passes from midfield a clear problem for the Swedes to solve. Joao Moutinho must be dealt with early on to ensure the Portuguese's usual flow is disrupted.

Meanwhile, Portugal must restrict passesinto the centre of the pitch, where Ibrahimovic's aerial presence and excellent hold-up play will allow him to take on and beat defenders or shoot from range.

The Paris Saint-Germain striker also enjoys threaded passes from behind, but with Sweden's midfield more hard-working than creative, that may not be an area worth too much focus considering the potential attacking distribution from the flanks.

With these tactical battles in mind, viewers should keep an eye out for the following players at the back. After all, the identity of the most likely match-winner is already obvious.

Pepe

Real Madrid's fiery centre-back will be vital alongside the veteran Bruno Gomes in nullifying Ibrahimovic, with the Brazilian-born defender's mobility and aggression ideal for frustrating the Swede.

He must be careful not to let his temper boil over however, especially as he may be able to trigger a reaction from the tempestuous Swede.

"

Pepe: The Real Madrid defender won 66.6% of his 81 contested aerial duels in La Liga last season

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) June 29, 2013"

Pepe's aerial power is unlikely to dominate Ibrahimovic completely, but he should be able to at least compete for the crosses and long balls sent over to the striker.

The defender's ability to cope on the ball and deliver accurate passes out of the danger zone will also be important, with the Paris Saint-Germain player more than happy to turn the tables and squeeze his markers for time and space when in possession.

Jonas Olsson

As reported by Yahoo! Sports, veteran Sweden defender Andreas Granqvist has called upon his countrymen to keep things tight at the back and work as a collective to stop Ronaldo and Portugal.

"

It's about not giving him too much space, too much time on the ball. If we can defend as a team and stay tight I think we can succeed.

A key to our defence will be to have the nerve to get tight on him, maybe double up so that [Ronaldo] doesn't get much time. We'll have to focus on him as a team.

"

However, West Bromwich Albion's Jonas Olsson stands out as the main man at the back for the visiting Swedes in Lisbon.

An impressive if not exactly top-class individual defender, the stopper is happy to close down opponents and attempt to dominate them physically.

While Ronaldo will be a difficult assignment, Olsson looks to be best suited to the task of dispatching the forward should he find his way into the box.

Prediction

With home advantage, Portugal will be looking to gain an early lead on their World Cup qualification rivals.

Although neither side would be classed as competitors without their world-beating captains—both Ronaldo and Ibrahimovic have been granted the arm bands due to their importance and excellence—the Portuguese are arguably the more talented collective.

If their team can rise to support Ronaldo, and help to isolate Ibrahimovic as a group, the home team could be on to a handsome victory.

Portugal 2-0 Sweden

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