Andre Ward vs. Edwin Rodriguez: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Andre Ward vs. Edwin Rodriguez will be the main event of Saturday night's HBO telecast, and Wards' WBA Super Middleweight Championship will be on the line.
Ward, on the shelf with an injury since last September, is ranked No. 2 on most lists of the pound-for-pound best fighters in boxing. He's undefeated, and he's the undisputed top fighter at 168 pounds. He cleared out his own neighborhood by winning the Super Six tournament and dominated then light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson in his last fight before the injury.
Rodriguez earned his shot largely on his performance in his last fight. He's young, undefeated and powerful, and he's hoping that he'll catch Ward at just the right time. This is the opportunity of a lifetime, and he'll be looking to shock the boxing world by scoring the upset.
Everything you need to know for the big fight is contained within. This is your complete preview and prediction for Ward vs. Rodriguez for the super middleweight championship of the world!
Tale of the Tape
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Andre Ward and Edwin Rodriguez sport remarkably similar records.
But numbers are deceiving in this case, as Ward has clearly faced a much higher level of opposition. Rodriguez is just coming into his own as a fighter, and he will be taking a massive step-up in class.
Rodriguez does possess one significant physical advantage. He will enter the ring with a five-inch longer reach than the champion, and while it's difficult to see him outboxing Ward, this could potentially prove a factor in the fight.
*All stats below are courtesy of Boxrec.com.
| Record | Andre Ward 26-0, 14 KO
| Edwin Rodriguez 24-0, 16 KO
|
| Age | 29 | 28 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 71" | 76" |
| Weight | 168 | 171.75 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown | San Francisco, California | Moca, Dominican Republic |
| Rounds Boxed | 173 | 123 |
Main Storylines
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Andre Ward is the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in boxing, but he hasn't stepped foot in a ring for a fight in over a year. He absolutely demolished then-light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson last September, but he hasn't fought since.
He suffered a tear in his right shoulder, which forced the cancellation of a scheduled fight with former middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik, and required months of rehab. Few, if any, people are expecting this to be a major factor in the fight, but it's definitely something worth watching.
Should Ward successfully return, the potential for high-profile fights—including a potential rematch with Carl Froch or a showdown with middleweight wrecking ball Gennady Golovkin—are in the offing for early next year. But first he'll need to show the injury is behind him.
Edwin Rodriguez landed this fight largely on the strength of his destruction of light heavyweight contender Denis Grachev in July. The fight was as one-sided an affair as you'll ever see, and that's even more impressive given it lasted less than three full minutes.
"La Bomba" landed a ridiculous 70 shots inside of a round, 59 of which were power punches, according to Compubox, and knocked the Russian down twice before the bout was stopped.
It's an understatement to say that Grachev is no Ward, and there has been speculation that Rodriguez is biting off more than he can chew. But he's just looking to prove that he belongs.
Strengths
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Andre Ward is a tremendous pure boxer with immense natural talents. He's like the proverbial chess player in the ring, and he's able to think several moves ahead of his opponent and blunt their offensive attack, usually before they even know what it'll be.
His movement, and ring intelligence, are amongst the very best in boxing. In fact, they are probably better than anybody in the sport not named Floyd Mayweather. He uses his legs to stay out of range and frustrate his opponents by giving them few openings to land clean punches.
Ward doesn't have a ton of power, but he maximizes the impact by landing from different angles and with tremendous precision.
Edwin Rodriguez has some power in his fists, and his best punches are his straight right hand and sweeping left hook. Those two shots in particular have the potential to do serious damage if they land clean, which is much easier said than done against a foe as smart, and mobile, as Ward.
He had a decorated amateur career and captured the 2005 USA Boxing Championships and the 2006 National Golden Gloves in the middleweight division. He's not a pushover by any means.
Rodriguez is the type of fighter whom you can describe as a finisher. He knows when he has an opponent in trouble, and when he does, he doesn't let him off the hook.
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Weaknesses
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Andre Ward didn't show much in the way of weaknesses when he was tearing up the amateur ranks—he won several national titles and a gold medal in the light heavyweight division at the 2004 Summer Olympics—and he hasn't shown many in the nearly nine years he's been a professional.
One thing Ward doesn't have a ton of is punching power. He's only scored knockouts in 14 of his 26 victories and is much more comfortable in chess-match style fights.
Ward does have to face the possibility of some ring rust in this bout. It'll be about 14 months between fights when he steps through the ropes on Saturday night, and shoulder injuries have the potential to be tricky.
Edwin Rodriguez is 28 years old and seems to have a lot of potential. But, at this stage of his career, he's still considered pretty raw and unrefined. There's no way you turn down this type of opportunity—you may never get another—but this could be just a case of too much, too soon and too good.
He isn't a bad boxer, but he's facing a great boxer. He has the type of power to cause damage when he lands cleanly, but he doesn't have seem to have the type of overall skills to do much to trouble Ward.
Andre Ward Will Win If...
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Andre Ward will win this fight as long as he's still Andre Ward.
That may not sound overly analytical, but it's just the facts.
If Ward is healthy and doesn't have any lingering issues from his shoulder surgery, he should be able to pretty thoroughly outbox Edwin Rodriguez and win this fight going away. He just has too many physical tools
Ward will need to utilize his footwork to control the distance of the fight and nail Rodriguez with crisp, precision shots from a comfortable range. That'll allow him to stay away from the challenger's power, which might not be devastating but is definitely something to avoid whenever possible.
As long as he hasn't completely lost it, and the layoff/injury hasn't led to an erosion of his skills, Ward should be able to win this fight convincingly.
Edwin Rodriguez Will Win If...
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It's extremely difficult to foresee a scenario in which Edwin Rodriguez walks out of the Citizens Bank Arena as the new super middleweight champion of the world. He's just not on the same level as Andre Ward, and that'll become crystal clear after a few rounds.
The best chance Rodriguez has of winning this fight is by trying to get into close quarters and rake Ward with his big right hand and sweeping left hook. That's going to mean he'll need to find a way to get past the champ's stingy defense and not get smothered if he does get close.
It's going to be all about aggression. There is simply no realistic scenario—short of Ward being a shell of his old self—where Rodriguez will win a boxing match.
He has to try and make it into a brawl and land his big punches.
And the Winner Will Be...
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Unless you're looking to cash in on a massive long shot, or you have some money to burn, there is absolutely no reason to bet the farm on Edwin Rodriguez upsetting Andre Ward on Saturday night.
Ward is simply too slick, too strong and too good for any fighter at 168 pounds, and there's a reason he's an overwhelming favorite, given his inactivity and injury history.
We haven't seen him fight in over a year, but that doesn't mean we should forget or dismiss how dominant he was in totally cleaning out the super middleweight division.
Ward may struggle to throw off the ring rust for the first couple of rounds, but very quickly, Rodriguez will realize he isn't in there with Denis Grachev or Will Rosinsky. He'll be in there with one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, and—no disrespect intended—he'll get outclassed.
It's Andre Ward's fight, and he'll be extremely eager to make the world remember exactly who he is and how good he can be. He'll win this fight by a wide unanimous decision.
Prediction: Ward UD 12 Rodriguez (118-110)
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