Dolphins vs. Buccaneers: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan

The Miami Dolphins will make a short trip across the state of Florida to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Raymond James Stadium on Monday Night Football this week.

Here we will take a look at game-planning keys for Miami's offense and defense as the Dolphins attempt to become a winning team again.

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain one of the few teams in the NFL that is truly committed to the ground game—at least when the game situation allows the Bucs to be committed to it.

Tampa has lost eight straight games to start out the 2013 season. Some of those games got out of hand early, forcing the Bucs offense to pass more. However, in the four games decided by seven points or fewer, the Buccaneers ran the ball 136 times compared with 142 pass plays, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The team’s ground attack will likely feature tailback Mike James. Recently, the Miami Dolphins defense has come under fire for piling up missed tackles and allowing yardage to runners after contact.

According to Pro Football Focus, Miami’s defense missed a staggering 24 tackles against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. The Bengals tailbacks were able to average an extraordinary 6.7 yards after contact per carry. The Miami defense must step up to the task this Monday night, because James ranks No. 6 in the NFL among tailbacks who qualify in average yards after contact.

According to CNNSI.com’s statistics, the Buccaneers do not favor giving the football to James on shotgun draw plays. However, they do an excellent job of mixing up the looks from which they run the football. The Buccaneers will definitely test how well the Dolphins can defend different formations featuring James as the ball-carrier.

Formation Characteristic	Runs	Yards
Shotgun	3	10
I Formation	15	57
Pro Form	13	55
Single Back	26	140
3 Running Back	1	2
0-1 Wide Receiver	8	12
2 Wide Receiver	29	155
3 Wide Receiver	17	86
4+ Wide Receiver	1	1

Like most teams in the league, the Buccaneers favor passing the football out of the shotgun formation. According to CNNSI.com stats, approximately 72 percent of rookie Mike Glennon’s passes have come out of the shotgun. The thing for Miami to note is that the Buccaneers almost never run the football from the shotgun, now that star tailback Doug Martin is injured.

There is no question the Buccaneers like to lean on the skills of star wide receiver Vincent Jackson. This is especially true when Tampa lines him up in the slot. Consider the following statistics, courtesy of PFF. 

Pre-Snap Location	Routes	Target %	Yards/Att	Yards/Route
Slot	124	34.7	8.05	2.79
Perimeter	186	26.3	5.88	1.55

This will be a difficult test for Miami’s slot defenders. A key for Miami will be the health of corner Dimitri Patterson, who has extensive experience working as a slot defender. According to Chris Perkins of the Sun Sentinel, Patterson has not been participating in practice this week after suffering an injury defending a screen pass against the Bengals.

If Patterson is able to play, the Dolphins can insert reserve corner Nolan Carroll on the perimeter of the field while Patterson moves into the slot to continue covering Jackson. The game sets up to be a true test of whether Patterson really is as good as he’s played or if his exceptional four-game stretch is an aberration.

When Miami Has the Ball

The Miami Dolphins will take the field against an inferior roster this Monday evening. The key to beating inferior talent is to stay patient and play mistake-free football.

Staying patient means continuing the work the team started against the Buffalo Bills in Week 7: finding creative ways to run the football at the opposing defense's weakest spots.

According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics for grading defenses against the run, the Buccaneers’ weakest run defenders are defensive end Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, middle linebacker Mason Foster and defensive end Adrian Clayborn. Below you will find the average yardage per carry gained by offenses that played the Buccaneers in 2013, broken down by gap.

Left	Left	Left	Left	Right	Right	Right	Right
End	C-gap	B-gap	A-gap	A-gap	B-gap	C-gap	End
2.81	6.67	4.00	3.96	5.00	3.71	2.19	4.26

The Dolphins must also key on linebacker Lavonte David as a blitzer. According to Pro Football Focus’ signature Pass Rush Productivity statistic, David has been by far the most effective blitzing 4-3 outside linebacker in the NFL this season. He has accumulated seven sacks, two more hits on the quarterback and 13 hurries. He’s done this on only 55 pass-rushing snaps.

If the Dolphins want to play mistake free then they will have to figure out their plan of attack when going up against All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis. According to Roy Cummings of The Tampa Tribune, the Buccaneers have been considering the possibility of more man coverage for Revis.

That could mean Revis will shadow receiver Mike Wallace one-on-one. Should the Dolphins take Revis out of the equation by avoiding Wallace? Or should they test him? Considering the general state of the 0-8 football team, the Dolphins might be better off not doing Tampa any favors by sending passes in the direction of the team’s best and most expensive football player.

The Buccaneers have lost eight straight games with opponents not bothering to test whether Revis has returned to his old form. According to Pro Football Focus, Revis leads the entire league at the position in fewest number of targets per coverage snaps by a comfortable margin.

This is not due to reputation alone. Revis is allowing only 3.9 yards per attempt in his direction. According to the same source, that makes him the most efficient corner in the league in coverage even on the rare occasion when quarterbacks do test him in coverage.

With the Dolphins fighting for their lives in a tight AFC playoff race, now is not the time for Miami to reinvent the wheel. Teams have found success against the Buccaneers by avoiding Darrelle Revis. The Dolphins should continue that trend.

In order to keep the football in their hands, the Dolphins must focus on third-down efficiency. By converting third downs, the team can extend drives. The more plays executed, the more the game will start to favor the superior team.

As noted here, the Dolphins have an issue converting third downs because of struggles in their short-yardage offense.

The Dolphins must take a close look at these shortcomings and come up with new ideas to fix them. They can ill afford more drives ending in a punt because Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller cannot earn a hard yard. The more you put the Buccaneers offense on the field, the more chance they have of hitting a big play that changes the complexion of the game.

To this end, the Dolphins need to explore tight end Charles Clay’s ability to carry the football in short-yardage situations. The team also needs to keep quarterback Ryan Tannehill on the move on third down, leveraging his run-pass ability to force defenders into difficult choices.

Conclusion

The Dolphins should be able to win against the winless Buccaneers by playing executing and playing fundamentally sound football. That means stopping the run against a team that relies heavily on the run game. It means using your best defenders to neutralize the Buccaneers’ biggest playmaker.

It also means extending drives on offense, keeping the football out of the other teams hands and not making the big mistake. None of this is exciting or revolutionary. However, the Buccaneers are 0-8 for a reason.