Realistic Expectations For The '09 Vikings: NFC Championship Game

Yes, I'm sure you re-read the headline twice (at least). And no, I'm not crazy. Just hear me out.

The 2009 Minnesota Vikings should make it to the playoffs, like last year's team, but I expect them to make it to the NFC Championship game and here's why:

1. Roster Improvements

The Vikings 2009 roster has improved in numerous areas over last year's team.

While the team did not make any big splashes in free agency like it did last year (Jared Allen, Bernard Berrian, Madieu Williams), it improved its overall depth at CB and DT. This is especially significant if the Williams Wall is not able to get its four game suspension overturned.

The draft helped as well, especially with the additions of Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt.

Loadholt is a beast (6' 8", 332 lbs) and will help to clear a path on the right side for Adrian Peterson, while Harvin should help open up an offense in desperate need of another playmaker.

Asher Allen was a quality pick to add depth to the CB position in the third round, as was Jasper Brinkley at LB in the fifth.

Many people also forget about the injuries and ailments that signifcantly hurt this team last year.

Sidney Rice sustained numerous injuries, which limited him to 15 catches (albeit with four TD's) all year.

Madieu Williams missed the first half of the season, leaving rookie Tyrell Johnson to start in his place.

Charles Gordon was playing very well until that gruesome ankle injury in Week 10.

Jared Allen played half of the season with a third degree shoulder sprain.

E.J. Henderson, the starting middle linebacker, only played four weeks before dislocating two toes.

Kenechi Udeze missed the entire year fighting a battle with leukemia—a battle he won—and will be back, ready to contribute this year.

All of these players will be back and healthy to start this year, giving the already talented roster a big boost.

2. Schedule

It is always important to look at the schedule when predicting how a team will fare the upcoming year.

Now, granted, while teams can be far better or worse than their record the previous season, examining the schedule usually gives a good approximation of the expected success of a team.

The Minnesota Vikings' 2009 schedule is the second-easiest in the entire league (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/schedule?team=min) behind only the Chicago Bears. with an .420 opponent's winning percentage.

While the Packers have the third-easiest schedule, the ease of the Vikings' schedule favors them the most because they are the best team out of those three.

The Vikings should be at least 5-3, if not better, heading into their bye week, and from there 10 wins and a playoff berth seems very reasonable. 

3. Experience

Yes, the Vikings did lose in the first round of the playoffs last year but playoff experience is what this team needed. They were right there the entire game and arguably could have won if not for a bad pick-six thrown by Tarvaris Jackson.

Beating the Giants in a must-win game in the final week of last season was invaluable experience that this team needed. More importantly, the team played in some games last year that they either should have won (Indy Week 2) or could have easily won without silly turnovers (Tampa Week 11, Atlanta Week 16).

Good teams learn from these experiences and do not repeat them the next season.

Obstacles

While these three points sound great on paper, these are still the Minnesota Vikings.

They have a tendency to repeat their previous mistakes, commit dumb penalties, and cause massive heartbreak to their fan base.

They also have the little issue of the quarterback position, which will be an area of weakness unless No. 4 comes out of retirement...again. Sage Rosenfels is not the answer that this team is looking for, and despite Trent Dilfer's "performance" in 2000 with the Ravens, most NFL teams need a QB to win a Super Bowl.

There is also the injury/suspension factor. Adrian Peterson, as we all know, is a beast, but I think that even he would admit he was a little banged-up at the end of last season. Regular wear and tear is one thing, but if AD gets injured, the Vikings' playoff hopes go down with him.

If Kevin and Pat Williams cannot get their four game suspension overturned, it will serve as a serious blow to this team as well. They are the best DT tandem in the league and they would not be able to be replaced.

Finally, I see coaching as the final obstacle. Yes, Brad Childress's record has gone from 6-10 to 8-8 to 10-6. This is a good trend. But have you really been impressed by him as a coach?

The 109-yard interception return by Antonio Cromartie two years ago. The endless series' of two runs by AD followed by a pass that doesn't reach the first down marker. The reluctance to admit that the Vikings need a solution at QB besides Tarvaris Jackson?

Childress surprised many by selecting Percy Harvin in the first round this year, but he needs to utilize him properly. We have not seen the Wildcat formation, inexplicably, with Peterson and Chester Taylor. Will we see it with Harvin?

The 2009 Minnesota Vikings are one of the best teams in a wide-open NFC. With an easy schedule, they should be able to win their division or secure a wild-card spot. Their previous experience, along with having key members of their team healthy for the playoffs, should propel them into the NFC Championship game. 

A lofty prediction? Perhaps.

Realistic? Most definitely.