Hernan Marquez vs. Giovani Segura: Preview, Prediction for Flyweight Bout

On Saturday in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, former world champions Giovani Segura and Hernan Marquez face off in a flyweight bout. No world titles are on the line, but these are two of the biggest names among boxing's smallest competitors. 

Action in the 112-pound division is usually fast-paced and exciting, and both of these guys can punch.

The great boxing fans in Mexico know how to appreciate warriors of all sizes. Expect the excitement level to be high as Marquez does battle in his home state.

Tale of the Tape

Per Boxrec	Hernan Marquez	Giovani Segura
Record:	36-3, 26 KOs	30-3-1, 26 KOs
Height:	5'4"	5'4"
Reach:	62"	68"
Weight:	112 pounds	112 pounds
Age:	25	31
Stance:	Southpaw	Southpaw
Hometown:	Empalme, Sonora	Bell, California
Rounds:	186	152

Giovani Segura and Hernan Marquez are the same height, but Segura enjoys a half-foot advantage in reach. Both fighters work from a left-handed stance. 

Marquez is an extremely experienced fighter for a 25-year-old. This will be his 40th professional fight. He has challenged for and won world titles and battled pound-for-pound stars. 

Marquez will be fighting in his home state. Segura lives in California now but was born in Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero.

Main Storylines

Only a couple of years ago, Giovani Segura was viewed as a rising pound-for-pound star. His two knockouts of Ivan Calderon had established him as the sport's dominant light flyweight, and The Ring had him ranked inside their pound-for-pound top 10. 

A successful move to 112 was seen as inevitable, but things didn't quite go as planned for Segura. 

In December 2011, Segura challenged for Brian Viloria's WBO flyweight title and lost by Round 8 TKO. This past May he lost again by unanimous decision to veteran Edgar Sosa.

Tyson Marquez, too, has been among the sport's most highly regarded young talents in recent years. In July 2010 he lost a fight at super flyweight to Nonito Donaire by Round 8 TKO. Marquez moved down to 112 and had a nice run, capturing the WBA title in April 2011 against Luis Concepcion.

In November 2012 Marquez lost a thrilling title-unification bout to Brian Viloria by Round 10 TKO.

Strengths

Hernan Marquez is a well-rounded fighter with world-class skill. He fights behind a tight guard and has good head movement. He throws crisp combination punches. 

Marquez controls range well and is very good at stepping backwards and walking his opponents into the lead hook. He is a strong, compact fighter at 112 pounds and has fight-ending power. 

Giovani Segura is a relentless body puncher. He will dedicate rounds of a fight to walking his opponent down while punishing the body. 

He might be a flyweight, but he's got the mentality of a heavyweight slugger. Segura has terrific finishing instincts when an opponent is in trouble.

Weaknesses

Hernan Marquez fought on very even terms with Brian Viloria for much of their November 2012 bout. But the veteran Viloria consistently drew Marquez into wild exchanges and then found the openings to rough him up inside. 

Giovani Segura dominated at 108 with his physical style, but at full flyweight he's been far less imposing. Four pounds is a lot of weight for men this small. 

Segura's aggression is often less than intelligent. He drops his hands, squares up his stance and lunges. He throws wide punches that leave plenty of room for him to get hit back.

Top-rated flyweights who can stand up to his power have been able to beat him with boxing. 

Hernan Marquez Will Win If...

Hernan Marquez is the better boxer in this fight, and he's got at least as much physical strength and punching power as Giovani Segura. The only serious risk I see for Marquez is that Segura will be able to exploit his six-inch reach advantage to score with heavy body shots from the outside. 

Marquez needs to use movement to take that away from him.

When Segura looks to come forward with the big body shot, Marquez needs to either fade back out of range or else step inside and counter quickly with an uppercut or a short overhand left. 

Marquez should be able to get Segura to chase him. When Segura comes forward, Marquez should look to catch him with the lead hook.

If Marquez can avoid getting sucked into a desperate shootout, he should be able to outbox Segura all night and beat him up the entire time.

Giovani Segura Will Win If...

In this fight, Giovani Segura is going to need to apply pressure intelligently if he wants to avoid getting lit up by the experienced Hernan Marquez.

He's got a six-inch reach advantage, and I think he should attempt to exploit it by setting up his body attack with a stiff jab.

If Segura comes forward behind the jab, it should also make him less prone to lunging. This is critical, because if he's moving into range on Marquez off-balance and head down, Marquez will brutalize him with uppercuts and hooks.

Segura does need to attack the body aggressively. That's been his bread and butter his entire career. But he needs to be smart about it.

He's not going to win against Marquez simply by walking him down and overpowering him.  

Prediction

Like many other boxing writers, I went through my phase of slightly overvaluing Giovani Segura. After his rematch TKO of Cesar Canchila and his two knockout victories of Ivan Calderon, I saw him as miniature Julio Cesar Chavez.

I thought he would go up to full flyweight and continue to hammer people. I saw only a future showdown with Roman Gonzalez as a potential stumbling block. I expected him to beat Brian Viloria.

But when Viloria instead stopped him by Round 10 TKO, I thought, "Well, yeah, I guess that's what actually made sense all along."

As long as he could still cut down to 108 pounds, Segura was a wrecking ball. But against fighters his own size or slightly bigger, his pressure style has limitations.

Hernan Marquez is an all-around fighter. He's got punching power and defensive skill. In his loss to Brian Viloria almost a year ago, Marquez had "Hawaiian Punch" on the ropes and nearly out of the fight early on. 

Viloria used his edge in experience to draw Marquez into a few bad decisions that got him into big trouble in a fight that had been relatively competitive. It was the sort of experience a smart, young fighter like Marquez should learn from.

Segura remains a dangerous opponent. He's got the kind of power that can turn a fight around quickly.

But Marquez should be sharp enough to pick off Segura's heavy artillery and beat him up in return. This should be an exciting fight that will propel the young veteran back into another title fight.

I think Marquez will withstand some roughhousing in the middle rounds against Segura while steadily piling up the scoring and bruising Segura's face.

I see a late-round TKO for Hernan Marquez.