Breeders Cup 2013: Post Positions and Predictions for $3 Million Turf Race
The 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf offers the second biggest purse of the 14 high-profile races that will take place this Friday and Saturday at Arcadia, California's Santa Anita Park.
With winnings of $3 million on the line, it exceeds any of the prior three Triple Crown showcases and serves as an exciting precursor to the Classic that concludes the World Championship series.
Now that post positions have been released and the initial odds are set, there is a better sense as to how this race will play out among the 12 contenders who will compete in the physical, 1.5-mile endurance test on a grass track.
Below are a look at the horses in the field for the Turf, the trainers and jockeys involved and predictions for win, place and show.
Note: All background information is courtesy of BreedersCup.com, and race history was obtained from Equibase.com unless otherwise indicated.
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Vagabond Shoes | Victor Espinoza | John Sadler | 15-1 |
| 2 | Teaks North | Martin Garcia | Eric Guillot | 30-1 |
| 3 | Twilight Eclipse | Julien Leparoux | Thomas Albertrani | 20-1 |
| 4 | Little Mike | Mike Smith | Dale Romans | 6-1 |
| 5 | Skyring | Luis Saez | D. Wayne Lukas | 30-1 |
| 6 | Tale of a Champion | Joseph Talamo | Kristin Mulhall | 30-1 |
| 7 | The Fugue | William Buick | John Gosden | 3-1 |
| 8 | Point of Entry | John Velazquez | Claude McGaughey III | 4-1 |
| 9 | Indy Point | Gary Stevens | Richard Mandella | 9-2 |
| 10 | Big Blue Kitten | Joe Bravo | Chad Brown | 6-1 |
| 11 | Magician | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien | 8-1 |
| 12 | Real Solution | Javier Castellano | Chad Brown | 8-1 |
Win: Point of Entry (4-1)
Pace is something that Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez understands better than most, as evidenced by his two wins and runner-up finish in the Belmont Stakes, which is the same distance as the Turf.
Having a horse break at the right time is always key, but especially in such a physically demanding race as this one, it is vital to not plow full speed ahead too soon.
Velazquez has the benefit of riding a horse that has had extensive rest this season in preparation to build on last year's runner-up finish at the Turf.
Point of Entry is a five-year-old gearing up for this last big push. He managed to win both 2013 starts in Grade 1 races at the Gulf Stream Park Turf Handicap and the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap.
Both of those victories were with Velazquez steering, so the chemistry between horse and jockey should deliver trainer Claude "Shug" McGaughey III his first Turf win.
Place: The Fugue (3-1)
The four-year-old No. 1 favorite won a "Win and You're In" qualifier for this race at Santa Anita, which serves as a source of past success to draw on.
Squaring off against a field of males isn't a daunting task for The Fugue, as she proved in her recent triumph in the Irish Champion Stakes.
Jockey William Buick has made most of his noise on the other side of the Atlantic, but he has the capability to match up well with several Hall of Fame counterparts aboard this unique horse.
As her Breeders' Cup profile points out, The Fugue loves to sit just off the pace and make a late charge. It will take considerable endurance to do so when you consider the length of this race, but the pace shouldn't be too ambitious before she makes her push.
It should be a thrilling finish, but Velazquez's aforementioned experience at Belmont Park will be enough to edge out a victory.
Show: Little Mike (6-1)
The defending champion has Mike Smith in the saddle, who happens to be the winningest jockey in the history of the Breeders' Cup with 17 victories.
Little Mike's has shown a knack for finding the winner's circle in the past too, per statistics expert Gary Dougherty:
However, there has been a bit of a letdown for Little Mike in 2013 after 2012's landmark win in this race.
Although he just won the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes, Little Mike had finishes of sixth, fourth and 11th in his prior Grade 1 outings. That type of inconsistency is a red flag, especially considering the quality of the Turf's competition.
At age six, the mileage accumulated over years of competing might be catching up to this Dale Romans-trained gelding, but Little Mike will have just enough in the tank to finish in the money.


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