UFC Fight for the Troops 3: Tim Kennedy vs. Rafael Natal Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Tim Kennedy was originally lined up for a huge opportunity against Lyoto Machida, but he will now meet Rafael Natal in front of his fellow U.S. military members at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Despite earning a decision win over Roger Gracie in his UFC debut, Kennedy probably wasn't quite ready for a matchup with Machida, who has historically been an awful matchup for grapplers. A bout with Natal won't move Kennedy upward in the middleweight division, but it should give him a better chance to gain momentum before meeting a 185-pound contender.
Natal hasn't beaten any elite middleweights, but he has won five of his past six fights. The Brazilian may be a significant underdog on Wednesday, but he won't be a pushover for Kennedy.
As this lackluster main event approaches, here is a look at how Kennedy and Natal stack up in all areas.
Striking: Kennedy Offense vs. Natal Defense
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Rafael Natal's only loss in the past three years came via knockout when he was ahead on the scorecards against Andrew Craig. The Brazilian also had a scare in the third round of a bout with Michael Kuiper, whom he was beating soundly through the first two frames.
Though Natal avoids 64 percent of strikes thrown at him, according to Fight Metrics, his striking defense can disappear in the later rounds. While Kennedy has the conditioning to take advantage of that, he may lack the power needed to put Natal away.
Nearly six years have passed since Kennedy scored his most recent knockout victory. While he does have a few stoppage wins via strikes, Kennedy is much more likely to get that done on the ground than while standing.
Kennedy can beat Natal on his feet, but that would likely result in an ugly fight with lots of dirty boxing on the wall. As fights go on, Natal tends to rest when clinched along the fence, and Kennedy is a constant worker from that position.
If Kennedy has his way, though, this fight will be won or lost on the ground.
Striking: Natal Offense vs. Kennedy Defense
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There aren't a lot of middleweight matchups where Rafael Natal would have an advantage when standing, but this may be one of the few.
Tim Kennedy's losses under the Strikeforce banner came when he was unable to control Ronaldo Souza and Luke Rockhold on the ground. He may not be as technical as those 185-pound contenders, but like them, Natal does own a reach advantage over Kennedy.
Natal has a quicker jab and is more unpredictable with his striking than Kennedy. If he has trouble taking Kennedy down and is able to stay upright himself, that could carry Natal to an upset win on Wednesday.
While he may be capable of edging Kennedy on the scorecards in a stand-up match, Natal isn't going to finish this fight with his striking. Kennedy's only knockout loss in over a decade of fighting came via cut in August 2001. Further, Natal hasn't yet scored a knockout win inside the Octagon.
Takedowns: Kennedy Offense vs. Natal Defense
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Tim Kennedy is going to take Rafael Natal down.
Since joining the Strikeforce roster in June 2009, Kennedy has scored takedowns against all nine opponents he's faced. If Kennedy can take Roger Gracie, Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza to the canvas, there's little doubt he'll be able to do the same against Natal.
Natal has stopped 78 percent of takedown attempts he's faced inside the Octagon. He hasn't been taken down in five straight fights.
Nonetheless, he's far from impossible to take down. Paul Bradley and Jesse Bongfeldt both scored multiple takedown against the Brazilian.
Although his wrestling seems to have improved since those two bouts, Natal's wrestling still isn't on par with Kennedy's.
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Takedowns: Natal Offense vs. Kennedy Defense
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While Tim Kennedy should be able to take Rafael Natal down regularly, he's going to need to be prepared to keep his own back off of the ground.
Natal has scored takedowns in four of his past five fights. Meanwhile, Kennedy has been grounded in his past three outings.
Kennedy's opponents in that trio of bouts were all arguably stronger wrestlers than Natal, though. Still, even when he proved to be a better wrestler than Roger Gracie or Trevor Smith, Kennedy was taken down multiple times by both men.
This fight should play out similarly. Natal may get his takedowns, but Kennedy should make more of his time on top than the Brazilian will.
Grappling: Kennedy Top vs. Natal Bottom
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If a fighter willingly goes to the ground with Roger Gracie and wins, chances are that fighter is a pretty good grappler.
Tim Kennedy didn't find himself in many dangerous spots when rolling with a world-class jiu-jitsu competitor in Gracie during their July meeting. He also submitted five of the six fighters he defeated under the Strikeforce banner.
As good as Kennedy is on the ground, he's going to have a tough time stopping Rafael Natal. The Brazilian is a jiu-jitsu black belt and has never been submitted in his MMA career.
Still, Kennedy is fully capable of controlling Natal on the ground and earning a decision win with top position and ground-and-pound.
Grappling: Natal Top vs. Kennedy Bottom
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Rafael Natal has been dependent on the top position throughout his current three-fight winning streak.
The Brazilian scored five takedowns in those three bouts and spent a large portion of almost every round on top of his opponents. While he should be able to hold his own when standing, Natal will have difficulty remaining in his most comfortable position against Tim Kennedy.
Kennedy was taken down twice by Roger Gracie and was not submitted on either occasion. While Natal is also a solid jiu-jitsu practitioner, he's not going to be able to do what one of the best jiu-jitsu players in the world couldn't.
Natal will likely spend some time on top of Kennedy, but the likelihood of him holding the American down or scoring a submission is low.
Intangibles
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A pair of aggressive grapplers, Tim Kennedy and Rafael Natal are likely to engage in a grinding, exhausting bout at UFC Fight for the Troops 3.
Natal has had conditioning issues in past fights, making this fight with Kennedy a tough matchup for the Brazilian. Kennedy has excellent conditioning and, maybe even more importantly, experience in five-round fights.
With this fight likely to go into the later rounds, as neither fighter has ever been submitted, Kennedy should be able to pull away later on should Natal find a way to keep the fight close in the early stanzas.
Prediction
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Rafael Natal's best route to pulling off an upset may be keeping Tim Kennedy on the outside and standing. The Brazilian is a grappler above all, though, and likely has enough faith in his ground game to clinch with Kennedy.
Being the better wrestler, Kennedy is going to spend more time on top, especially as Natal tires in the later rounds of his first five-round fight. Having never been submitted even though he spent plenty of time on the ground with Roger Gracie, Kennedy shouldn't be threatened much by the submission of Natal.
Kennedy is going to have a tough time stopping Natal, who has also never tapped. However, Kennedy should be able to earn a lopsided decision win in front of his fellow U.S. troops.
Prediction
Kennedy defeats Natal by decision.
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