3 NFL Teams That Could Cover the Spread in Week 7

Let's take a look at the spread for some of this week's intriguing NFL matchups. Here are three teams that could win against the odds.

Jacksonville (+9) over San Diego

The Jacksonville Jaguars could benefit from their perceived ineptitude this weekend.  It was no surprise that the Jags hung with the historically favored Broncos for much of last week's tilt, and this weekend should be more of the same. 

The San Diego Chargers are coming off a nationally televised win over the Indianapolis Colts and now must travel across two time zones to play their fourth road game in six games on a short week. 

The Chargers will be playing an early game, meaning a negative body clock.  Since the start of last season, teams have only covered seven of 30 games the week before a bye, per pregame.com.

The Chargers are just 4-17-1 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites since the 2008 season as the team tends to play down to its competition, per covers.com. 

The Jaguars' passing game has received a considerable boost through the return of Justin Blackmon, who has amassed over 100 yards receiving in each of his two games this season.  The Chargers are giving up the eighth-most yards per game through the air, which will give a competent-enough Jacksonville passing offense a chance to remain competitive.

Prediction: Jacksonville, 17-14

Indianapolis (+7) over Denver

The Colts will have value as a home underdog on national television, especially against a Broncos team giving up the third-most yards per play. 

Andrew Luck has never lost back-to-back games in his career and the Colts are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog with Luck as a starter. 

Opponents of the Broncos have a combined 11-25 record, yet the Broncos are a big favorite over the first team they have played with a winning record this season.

The Colts defense still has personnel, such as Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis, who are familiar with Peyton Manning's tendencies after playing with him over the course of several seasons.  This will give the Broncos an edge in preparation. 

Expect a close game between two good football teams to come down to the final drive, where Andrew Luck is particularly proficient.

Prediction: Indianapolis, 31-28

Buffalo (+6.5) over Miami

The numbers suggest that the Miami Dolphins have no business as a significant home favorite over the Buffalo Bills. 

The Dolphins are only 10-33 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2003, and they have only covered once in that time span as a home favorite by more than a touchdown.  Since the 1999 season, Miami is only 2-7 as a favorite coming off a bye. 

The Dolphins' offensive struggles may continue to be apparent against the Bills, as Miami has been out-gained yardage-wise in every game this season. 

Despite coming off a bye, the Dolphins may struggle as teams have limited film on Thad Lewis, who overachieved in Week 6 against the heavily favored Bengals. 

The Dolphins will find tough sledding against a divisional opponent in a familiar spot as an overvalued favorite. 

Prediction: Buffalo, 24-20

Week 6 ATS: 3-1

Season ATS: 9-8-1

Listen to Episode 31 of the Kings of Sport.  LIKE us on Facebook!