Evaluating the Red Stars after Five Games

Chicago Red Stars fans, the players, and front office are baffled by the team's first five games in the WPS. Billed as an offensive powerhouse with US WNT weapons such as Megan Rapinoe (pictured above in WNT action), Lindsay Tarpley, and Carli Lloyd, and bolstered by Brazil's Christiane, Sweden's Frida Ostberg, and England's Karen Carney, the Red Stars shocked themselves and everyone else by logging only two goals in their first three games. Still, after three, they were undefeated.

In week four, against second place Boston, the Red Stars finally found their inner striker, tallying four goals by four different players: Rapinoe, Lloyd, Carney, and Brittany Klein. The defense, led by Santa Clara's Dalmy and Igwe, with Dieke Ifume, and help off the bench from Natalie Spilger, continued to support the world class goal-tending of Sweden's Caroline Jnsson.

Following the Boston game, B/R's WPS Power Rankings had the Red Stars on top despite their third place slot in league standings. They had fewer points than LA and Boston, but they were the only undefeated team. They appeared to be on a trajectory toward league dominance.

What a difference a week makes. Or two. Since week four, Chicago has lost two, scored zero, given up three goals, and has fallen to last in the power rankings with their next opponent, St. Louis Athletica, on top. (see Laura Kozak's game preview, at B/R.)

To what can we attribute the Red Stars' rapid decline? I would say three factors:

First: League Parity. It appeared after the first few games of play that there might be a tremendous power gap in the new league. LA, Boston and Chicago seemed to be a class above the other four. While some games between the top and bottom were close. The same teams seemed to be losing most of the time. But as the season progressed, every team in the league proved it could challenge or even defeat any other team on a given day. Exhibit number one: the two-week reversal of fortunes for Chicago and St. Louis, changing places at the top and bottom of league power rankings.

Second: Immaturity. By "immaturity" I do not mean the players need to grow up. They are immature as a team. They have insufficient experience playing together. They have more coalescing to do, and must wait for team chemistry to gel fully.

Midfielder, Megan Rapinoe said it best in her post-game interview after the Gold Pride defeat. "I've never played on a more competitive team."  Yes, this team is competitive. They leave it all on the field (with the exception of the second Sky Blue game-- their first loss, when the team appeared to be rather lethargic at times).

And they can attack. Coach Hayes said the team has never attacked better than they did in the first half of the Gold Pride match. They created chances. They created close calls. They had two goals nullified by offside violations. But they couldn't get on the board. All signs of team "immaturity."

Third: the hunger of the bottom feeders. As league parity began to emerge, the teams at the bottom became the toughest to defeat. A hungry lion is more formidable than one that's overfed. The combination of overconfidence on the part of the upper echelon (another attribute of immaturity) and raw, native hunger on the part of those yet to win, or yet to put two wins together, has worked to turn standings and power rankings topsy turvy.

From a Chicago perspective none of these issues are fatal or permanent. True, in our use of the word "immaturity," it is the great equalizer in a league's inaugural season, but some teams are better equipped to mature, coalesce, and learn from their shortcomings than others.

Chicago has an edge in coaching and management. When all is said and done, they have an edge in talent and (potential) chemistry as well. We expect the Red Stars to make the necessary adjustments, sooner rather than later.

It is our expectation that at the end of the next five outings, the Red Stars will be among the top two teams in power and in points, and in the end, the inaugural champs of Women's Professional Soccer.

What could prevent this outcome? Only the Red Stars themselves. The crown is theirs to lose. They have the ability and the intangibles to run the field. But they have to want it more than their opponents, and they have to play every game as if they are the underdogs. At least for the upcoming contest, especially with their four top players on WNT duty, they are.